Whoah, woah, woah. I was told the metrics sites predict the spread!
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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Within a few points or so it’s typicallly very reliable, as it was in this case as well. Metric sites ranged from Illinois being a 1 point favorite (Torvik) to Michigan being a 2 point favorite (KP).
So looks like the metric sites were nearly spot on again for this one, as per usual.
Had heard Michigan will win by 20 points all week so I was relieved to see the spread actually align with metrics as everyone else said it likely would.
LMAO what are you talking about man, spread is right in line with what the metrics sites predicted (within a couple points, its not going to predict it exactly
)There’s so many factors into how sportsbooks factor in spread… they aren’t trying to predict the game spread down to the half point. They want as close to 50/50 as possible, without severely shifting the line.
It’s entirely possible they also foresaw a lot of action on Michigan and gave them a couple extra points to cushion their own spread.
Books make money on vig not getting the line as close as possible.
Plus as Empoweredillini points out Torviks got this as a -1.5 Illinois, this is a 2 pt movement.
I see Mich using Burnett to dog Keaton. Hope Keaton gets Burnett in foul trouble early.
I too know nothing, but IF we can switch Mara onto Keaton, then Mara has a real chance of fouling out. If that happens, I like our chances of winning.I know nothing (nothing!) but here are my takes:
On offense, can we successfully hunt matchups, leading to Keaton having another Purdue-like game. (Having gotten some extended rest, how about a fifty-ball if we can get Mara trying to guard him?).
Chuck Nuggets
Dip your nuggets in my staff source sauce.
FYI, I had a dream Illinois won 80-something to 60-something. I woke up happy.
Do with this information what you will. I do not encourage wagering, but I won't stop you.
Do with this information what you will. I do not encourage wagering, but I won't stop you.
LMAO what are you talking about man, spread is right in line with what the metrics sites predicted (within a couple points, its not going to predict it exactly
Forgot to add the /s. Was simply poking fun at the back and forth earlier in the week.
I understand how the line works. I was just jumped on because I opined that we would not be favored.
Matchups: Bam on Yaxel, Mirk on Morez, Tomi on Mara, AS on Cadeau, Keaton on Burnett. Yes, I think AS starts this game. If he doesn't then Jake is on Burnett and Keaton has to take Cadeau. Ben can take Yaxel when he subs in. Two big lineup should get some run.
Maybe I'm wishcasting here, but I feel really good about our chances in this game. We match up really well -- Michigan doesn't have the shooting bigs that give us problems. And they are in a tough stretch of games with two day turnarounds, while we will have had five full days of rest.
Maybe I'm wishcasting here, but I feel really good about our chances in this game. We match up really well -- Michigan doesn't have the shooting bigs that give us problems. And they are in a tough stretch of games with two day turnarounds, while we will have had five full days of rest.
I for one called this a guaranteed loss- still stand by that. I personally never said we'd lose handily- I assume we will likely lose a close game that comes down to the wire- and then lose.Within a few points or so it’s typicallly very reliable, as it was in this case as well. Metric sites ranged from Illinois being a 1 point favorite (Torvik) to Michigan being a 2 point favorite (KP).
So looks like the metric sites were nearly spot on again for this one, as per usual.
Had heard Michigan will win by 20 points all week so I was relieved to see the spread actually align with metrics as everyone else said it likely would.
I'll happily eat crow.
Calling a game with a 50/50 chance of a win a 'guaranteed loss' is certainly something.
Given there is a 50% probability, in order to fairly see things from another perspective, let me ask you this:
What would you say to someone who calls this game a 'guaranteed win'? You both have the same chance of being correct, by the way.
Why are we guaranteeing our team loses anyway?
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
I understand your skepticism, but, for now, you must accept the appropriate response.
Forgot to add the /s. Was simply poking fun at the back and forth earlier in the week.
I understand how the line works. I was just jumped on because I opined that we would not be favored.
But Illini were favored by multiple sources (KP & ESPN Analytics/BPI)
That's what people pointed out... Vegas is more in line with KP
So we have 2 that have Illinois favored and 2 have Michigan favored
Right, nobody claimed Michigan wouldn't be favored
The discussion hinged around the 'Illinois has no chance of winning' narrative
Want to be the best? Beat the best! Come out hot and ready to play. Not worried about our offense, our defense has to step up when it matters. I think if Big Z, Tomi and Mirk have a great game, we win. If we rely on guard play too much we lose.
Win tomorrow night and we are in line for a 2 seed in the BTT and a 1 or 2 seed in March. We lose tomorrow night, the best we will get is a 4 seed in the BTT and a 2-3 seed in the Tourney. Biggest game of the season and we need to get out and get the crowd into the game.
We need to get into the paint and draw fouls. Work the ball around and get a good look. Defense needs to pick it up and not let Michigan control the paint.
Not true when teams still have 2-3 games left.
I have to tell you guys I am FIRED UP for tomorrow’s game! I am JACKED! Two great teams, spectacular environment, and Gus Johnson will probably be on the call. This is one of the best games of the college basketball season, period.
I really wish I was in Champaign tomorrow. Oh, by the way, yes Michigan is REALLY good. So is Illinois. Get your popcorn ready, people!
I really wish I was in Champaign tomorrow. Oh, by the way, yes Michigan is REALLY good. So is Illinois. Get your popcorn ready, people!
I’m hoping to see BU coach circles around Dusty but I won’t hold me breath.
Feeling good about Friday. If we get the W, I like our chances of going to the B1G Tournament Championship and winning it. I really want that banner this year and feel we owe some teams if we get the shot along the way…Wisc, MSU, UCLA. Time to realize our full potential heading into the NCAAT.
Even if we don’t get the W, we should still make a run with the remaining schedule.
Even if we don’t get the W, we should still make a run with the remaining schedule.
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