I remember that MSU goose egg very wellPut me in the camp that was surprised that we hadn't had a top 10 matchup in Champaign since 2006! For those curious, here were the near misses since that MSU game in 2006. I will define those as a game where one team was in the top 10 and the other team was at least in the top 15.
2012-2013
#8 Ohio State at #11 Illinois (ILL 74, OSU 55)
#8 Minnesota at #12 Illinois (MINN 84, ILL 67)
2023-2024
#3 Purdue at #12 Illinois (PUR 77, ILL 71)
Also interesting to note that during that same long stretch of time, we have played the following top 10 matchups away from Champaign:
2020-2021
#4 Illinois at #2 Michigan (ILL 76, MICH 53)
#4 Illinois at #7 Ohio State (ILL 73, OSU 68)
#5 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Semifinals in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 82, IOWA 71]
#9 Ohio State vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Championship in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 91, OSU 88 in OT]
2023-2024
#9 Illinois at #1 Purdue (PUR 83, ILL 78)
#4 Iowa State vs. #10 Illinois (NCAAT Sweet Sixteen in Boston, MA) [ILL 72, ISU 69]
#10 Illinois vs. #1 UConn (NCAAT Elite Eight in Boston, MA) [UCONN 77, ILL 52]
2025-2026
#9 Illinois at #5 Nebraska (ILL 78, NEB 69)
#5 Illinois at #10 Michigan State (MSU 85, ILL 82 in OT)
And lastly, while it is not overly relevant to today, it looks like we are on a 4-game winning streak in top 10 matchups at home, and you would have to go back to January 1990 for our last loss. I won't say who that was against, lol...
2005-2006
#6 Illinois 60, #7 Michigan State 50
2004-2005
#5 Illinois 91, #1 Wake Forest 73
2000-2001
#7 Illinois 77, #4 Michigan State...
#9 Illinois 87, #7 Seton Hall 79
Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara
My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
Who is Bozwell on?Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara
My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
It's a loser's mentality to even begin to think that the refereeing would be a benefit/detriment.With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
Spoken like a true Illni fan.With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
why are you sharing this nonsense?
Cadeau?….. did you forget Boswell? Wagler covers Burnett.Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara
My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
Plus 22 is a gigantic number. What a team averages on their own for fast break points is different than their +/-. No team comes close to averaging plus 22 fast break points. I don't know where to find the number, but im sure the #1 team in the +/- category is close to upper single digits. So when you more than double the number of the #1 out of 360+ team, thats huge.This has to be the 100th time I've seen this misconception. This actually works the opposite way... teams have to send guys to the defensive glass which means there isn't anyone to leak out and create transition/fast break.
Illinois averages less than 9 fast break points allowed per game this season. In our last 3 games, since Kylan returned, we have allowed a grand total of 10 fast break points (0 to Indiana, 1 to USC, 9 to UCLA). But, lets also go back through some of the other games vs power conf opponents on our schedule: Illinois gave up gave up 4 fast break points to Texas Tech, 6 to UConn, 5 to Tennessee, 7 & 8 in the two meetings vs Nebraska, 3 to Missouri, 9 to Wisconsin in an OT game.
So to reiterate, our offensive rebounding actually does the opposite of what you state (and this is made very clear by the statistical data, of course) because crashing offensive glass forces defenders to stay home for box-outs, which reduces their numbers available to leak out. We also use a lot of the shot clock and get fouled / shoot free throws a lot which also does the opposite of quick misses that fuel fast breaks.
EDIT: Michigan State was an outlier where our best defensive player did not even play (we still got 31.3% of the rebounds on our end of the floor, plus 22 isn't like a ginormous number of fast break points... there are teams that average nearly that many).
With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
Yes, Coach said they had the day off on Monday but then they were going to implement new wrinkles on Tuesday and full throttled practices on Wednesday and Thursday. It looks like we’re in a great position for a win.i would not at all be surprised if we see some new defensive wrinkles that brad/cam have been keeping in the bag for this game.
Big Z should get as many lobs as he wants in the dunker spot, so long as we're shooting anywhere near average from 3.Seems like Minnesota was able to have a lot of success on back cuts. I wonder if we bring back our sets last year with Tomi as the fulcrum? Think Keaton, Kylan, Andrej and maybe even Ben (Yaxel looked like he fell asleep a lot against MN) could all have success back cutting. Lane should be open with Mara guarding Tomi and if defense collapses find an open shooter.
I agree that we can win this game but if we bring low IQ to the game we will not.I get that Michigan is good. I get that the loss at UCLA was very deflating. What I don't get are the takes that assure we will lose on Friday. As others have pointed out, three of our six losses were in OT (although the last one never should have come to that), one was on a last second shot, and another was because we missed free throws down the stretch. The only game that we did not really have a strong chance to win was UCONN, and we are not the same team we were then.
I was extremely deflated after the UCLA loss, but it's the only one of our six losses that is just a ridiculous outlier in how it went down. LOTS of great teams have an absolute clunker. Missing Bam for both Wisky and MSU was probably the reason we have those two losses. Nebby going off from three, combined with our lack of defensive effort, which has greatly improved, is what caused that loss.
We can compete with anyone, and saying we will definitely lose to UM is just ridiculous. It's not like we are a John Groce era team going up against the Fab Five.
Is it possible that Friday's game won't be similar to any other game given that 70% of the players are different from last year and more than that are and one coach didn't participate prior to 2025?I’ve decided this game is giving me 2021 vibes. Sure Michigan gets to hang the banner, but we had some bad injury and in game luck (vs the 2021 shenanigans Michigan pulled) and so I think we come in with a chip on our shoulder and prove Michigan is just a paper champion.