Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#303      
Put me in the camp that was surprised that we hadn't had a top 10 matchup in Champaign since 2006! For those curious, here were the near misses since that MSU game in 2006. I will define those as a game where one team was in the top 10 and the other team was at least in the top 15.

2012-2013
#8 Ohio State at #11 Illinois (ILL 74, OSU 55)
#8 Minnesota at #12 Illinois (MINN 84, ILL 67)

2023-2024
#3 Purdue at #12 Illinois (PUR 77, ILL 71)



Also interesting to note that during that same long stretch of time, we have played the following top 10 matchups away from Champaign:

2020-2021
#4 Illinois at #2 Michigan (ILL 76, MICH 53)
#4 Illinois at #7 Ohio State (ILL 73, OSU 68)
#5 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Semifinals in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 82, IOWA 71]
#9 Ohio State vs. #3 Illinois (BTT Championship in Indianapolis, IN) [ILL 91, OSU 88 in OT]

2023-2024
#9 Illinois at #1 Purdue (PUR 83, ILL 78)
#4 Iowa State vs. #10 Illinois (NCAAT Sweet Sixteen in Boston, MA) [ILL 72, ISU 69]
#10 Illinois vs. #1 UConn (NCAAT Elite Eight in Boston, MA) [UCONN 77, ILL 52]

2025-2026
#9 Illinois at #5 Nebraska (ILL 78, NEB 69)
#5 Illinois at #10 Michigan State (MSU 85, ILL 82 in OT)


And lastly, while it is not overly relevant to today, it looks like we are on a 4-game winning streak in top 10 matchups at home, and you would have to go back to January 1990 for our last loss. I won't say who that was against, lol...

2005-2006
#6 Illinois 60, #7 Michigan State 50

2004-2005
#5 Illinois 91, #1 Wake Forest 73

2000-2001
#7 Illinois 77, #4 Michigan State...
#9 Illinois 87, #7 Seton Hall 79
I remember that MSU goose egg very well ;)
 
#305      
IDK, this game - I'd give us the slight edge
- Neutral floor - advantage Michigan
- Home game - changes to advantage Illini - wish we had a more dominant home court
- Who needs it more - advantage Illini - Big 10 & NCAA tourney seed
 
#306      
Mirk on Morez
Stoj on Yax
Jake/Ben on Burnett
Tomi/Z on Mara

My only concern is Wagler on Cadeau.
Who is Bozwell on?
 
#307      
With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
It's a loser's mentality to even begin to think that the refereeing would be a benefit/detriment.

I don't care if it's 2 to 1 in Michigan's favor, when you get to the line, MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS! That is of MUCH bigger concern that the refs.

We've lost two games recently (not even taking the Alabama game into consideration from earlier in the year) because when we did get the call, we didn't convert.

Think about the amount of absolutely critical free throws that we've missed the last few weeks. Heck, think about all of the front ends of 1 and 1's that we've missed. That's taking potentially two points off the board. Those free throws that we don't get by missing the front ends don't show up in the stats.

If you're not converting from the line when the refs do send you there.....that's 100% on our guys.

Control what you can control. We'll get to the line plenty. Make them. Don't settle for as many threes and we'll see an uptick in trips to the line. Make them.

Let me add this. Over the last couple of games where we haven't secured rebounds late, which led to a foul on us....those fouls are never called if we're doing what we're supposed to be doing on the glass.

I love Keaton, but this focus on him not getting calls and it's leading to our demise is ridiculous. We've gotten more than enough whistles to have beaten MSU, WI and UCLA. We didn't get the job done in crunch time.

We have to accept that Michigan is probably going to demolish us on points in the paint. Part of that will be second chances, finishing or getting to the line. We have to minimize that as much as possible. We have to find a way to get something easy and that is going to be easier said than done. We don't have Uber athletic guards that can break a defense down and finish STRONG at the rim and we don't have a great post presence. We have bigs that go up soft and in this game, those shots will end up in the fifth row. If Keaton going up soft, he'll get his shot erased. Michigan has grown men in the paint.

I'm sure Brad will touch on this in his media session, but this one is all about toughness, both physically and mentally. That's where Michigan gets people. They will bully you. The only way to stop a bully is to bully back. If we stand behind the three point line and put up 45-50 threes..... we're done unless we hit 18-20 of them.
 
#308      
With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
Spoken like a true Illni fan.

The next time an official truly impacts the outcome of any game we have had since the 2005 NCAA championship game will be the first.

Great teams overcome whatever slight they feel from officiating.

MSU, Wisky, UCLA are all games we should have won regardless of the officiating. Let's not blame officials for missed FTs, lane violations, three shot fouls and missed defensive rebounds that would have won all 3 games.

But I have to admit - the "true" Illini fan complains about the officiating before the game even begins.

To win (championships) we need to lose that mentality... so does our coach.
 
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#311      
This has to be the 100th time I've seen this misconception. This actually works the opposite way... teams have to send guys to the defensive glass which means there isn't anyone to leak out and create transition/fast break.

Illinois averages less than 9 fast break points allowed per game this season. In our last 3 games, since Kylan returned, we have allowed a grand total of 10 fast break points (0 to Indiana, 1 to USC, 9 to UCLA). But, lets also go back through some of the other games vs power conf opponents on our schedule: Illinois gave up gave up 4 fast break points to Texas Tech, 6 to UConn, 5 to Tennessee, 7 & 8 in the two meetings vs Nebraska, 3 to Missouri, 9 to Wisconsin in an OT game.

So to reiterate, our offensive rebounding actually does the opposite of what you state (and this is made very clear by the statistical data, of course) because crashing offensive glass forces defenders to stay home for box-outs, which reduces their numbers available to leak out. We also use a lot of the shot clock and get fouled / shoot free throws a lot which also does the opposite of quick misses that fuel fast breaks.

EDIT: Michigan State was an outlier where our best defensive player did not even play (we still got 31.3% of the rebounds on our end of the floor, plus 22 isn't like a ginormous number of fast break points... there are teams that average nearly that many).
Plus 22 is a gigantic number. What a team averages on their own for fast break points is different than their +/-. No team comes close to averaging plus 22 fast break points. I don't know where to find the number, but im sure the #1 team in the +/- category is close to upper single digits. So when you more than double the number of the #1 out of 360+ team, thats huge.
But like you said, it was an outlier. Im not concerned about when weird things happens @ Michigan St. I expect it.
 
#312      
With all the stats analysis and matchups. What isn't figured is the refs involvement in a game. We are at home which does help. Let's hope the crowd goes nuts all game.
Larry David Reaction GIF


One would hope......

The B10 loves them some Michigan
 
#313      
i would not at all be surprised if we see some new defensive wrinkles that brad/cam have been keeping in the bag for this game.
Yes, Coach said they had the day off on Monday but then they were going to implement new wrinkles on Tuesday and full throttled practices on Wednesday and Thursday. It looks like we’re in a great position for a win.
 
#315      
Seems like Minnesota was able to have a lot of success on back cuts. I wonder if we bring back our sets last year with Tomi as the fulcrum? Think Keaton, Kylan, Andrej and maybe even Ben (Yaxel looked like he fell asleep a lot against MN) could all have success back cutting. Lane should be open with Mara guarding Tomi and if defense collapses find an open shooter.
Big Z should get as many lobs as he wants in the dunker spot, so long as we're shooting anywhere near average from 3.
 
#317      
Why are most of the U.S. players on the Illinois team heads down during the national anthem when Brad has his hand on his heart? (Picture on the illiniboard post) Interesting...
 
#318      
I get that Michigan is good. I get that the loss at UCLA was very deflating. What I don't get are the takes that assure we will lose on Friday. As others have pointed out, three of our six losses were in OT (although the last one never should have come to that), one was on a last second shot, and another was because we missed free throws down the stretch. The only game that we did not really have a strong chance to win was UCONN, and we are not the same team we were then.

I was extremely deflated after the UCLA loss, but it's the only one of our six losses that is just a ridiculous outlier in how it went down. LOTS of great teams have an absolute clunker. Missing Bam for both Wisky and MSU was probably the reason we have those two losses. Nebby going off from three, combined with our lack of defensive effort, which has greatly improved, is what caused that loss.

We can compete with anyone, and saying we will definitely lose to UM is just ridiculous. It's not like we are a John Groce era team going up against the Fab Five.
I agree that we can win this game but if we bring low IQ to the game we will not.
 
#322      
I’ve decided this game is giving me 2021 vibes. Sure Michigan gets to hang the banner, but we had some bad injury and in game luck (vs the 2021 shenanigans Michigan pulled) and so I think we come in with a chip on our shoulder and prove Michigan is just a paper champion.
Is it possible that Friday's game won't be similar to any other game given that 70% of the players are different from last year and more than that are and one coach didn't participate prior to 2025?

Or is that just a "stretch" when it comes to thinking about this game?
 
#323      
Curious if Illinois will double the post ups, or where they’ll come from. Also how much zone they’ll play. They only usually play a couple possessions of zone a game but there’s a lot of tape after the Minnesota game. Although, Michigan can be hot or cold on threes and zones can be susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds to Morez.
 
#325      
I know nothing (nothing!) but here are my takes:
On offense, can we successfully hunt matchups, leading to Keaton having another Purdue-like game. (Having gotten some extended rest, how about a fifty-ball if we can get Mara trying to guard him?😋).

On dribble drives, I want a 1:1:1 ratio of layup attempts, drop offs, and kickouts. If we force too many layup attempts (which I think we have a tendency to do), their bigs could have a field day.
On defense, I wonder if it boils down to whether we continue to go over all screens, even for guys who don't like to take threes.

And rebounding. (Duh.)
 
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