Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah and I’d honestly rather have a rematch vs. Wisconsin than UCLA if the lower seed wins.
Week of 2/23 Bracketology
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In a perfect world it would be Wisconsin/UCLA in quarters, Wisconsin/UCLA in the semis and MSU in the champ game. The ultimate revenge tour.
I'd prefer UCLA. Wisconsin isn't nearly as bad a rebounding team as UCLA (who's in the 300s in DREB%).
An off shooting night against Wiscy could be problematic.
We did not shoot well @UCLA.... but got back 51% of our misses (which is absurd), scored over 1.31ppp, and should've won the game.
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After beating UCONN, Creighton got hammered by St Johns and also lost to DePaul at home. That now becomes a Q3 loss for UCONN.
Don’t think it’s gonna matter with UConn since they have the head to head over us. If they lose again before the Big East tournament and we win out then it might matter
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
anyone want to research when the last 1 seed to have a Q3 loss was?
Kansas lost to Dayton and was a 1 seed in 21-22.
Houston in 2023 is the only one ever
However quadrant records only became a thing in 2018-19
So out of 28 teams to get a 1 seed since quadrants were introduced, only 1 of them had a Q3 loss
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Take these games. Turn any two of them into wins, and we are probably in the drivers seat for a 1 seed.
Wisconsin
UCLA
MSU
Nebraska
Alabama
The Wisconsin and UCLA games are really the two that sting. Wisconsin was our annual WTF home loss, and we had a 23 point lead against UCLA. The Alabama game is probably third just because we had a bad night from the free throw line.
Idk about that, we played that game without our 2 best perimeter defenders against a Boyd/Blackwell backcourt (those two players we were missing are also our 2nd and 3rd leading scorers). Also, Wisconsin is a good team (currently projected 6 seed). Also, we lost in overtime.
I was looking at Torvik's tourneycast tool this morning and was kind of relieved to see that the only loss that could've bumped us up to a 1 seed had we won was UConn.
So, I don't have to torment myself with thoughts like, "If only Nebraska's 3 didn't fall." Or "If only MSU didn't get that rebound." Or "If only UCLA doesn't go coast to coast in 5 seconds." It would've taken a combination of those things happening (according to Torvik) which is easier to stomach, IMO.
I'm sure I missed some weird combination, but in using the B1G Bracket Generator, it appears if the Illini win 2 of their last 3 games they will achieve a triple-bye. I even used a combination where Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin win out (and one where Nebraska loses once). It keeps showing the Illini #4.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yes, in this combo I got 4 seed:
That is us losing to Michigan, but beating Oregon and Maryland.
Michigan St, Nebraska, and Purdue winning out. Wisconsin only losing to Purdue (Wisconsin beating Purdue wouldn’t change the outcome).
So if we win our final 2, I don’t see a scenario that doesn’t give us a triple buy.
If we beat Michigan and Michigan beats Michigan St, 2 seed:
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OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
We also had a double digit second half lead. That might be tougher to swallow, but I’d still call it a WTF loss. We are better than Wisconsin, full stop.
I can buy the reasons, but it was still a loss that shouldn’t have happened if you want a 1 seed.
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I want them both, personally (does not matter the order). I am sure the team wants another crack at each of those teams too after losing in OT. The only game I am not interested in a rematch at this point is MSU (I want our players healthy going into tourney).
If you can buy the reasons for it then by using simple logic it wouldn't be a "loss that shouldn't have happened" and by definition wouldn't be a "WTF loss".
Do you buy the reasons for it? Or is there no reason it should've happened? We have to pick one.
Do you buy the reasons for it? Or was it a WTF loss? We have to pick one.
We were down our 2 best perimeter players and 2nd/3rd leading scorers vs a good team. That shorthanded team of 6 players with 2 bench guys as starters that we rolled out that day due to missing Boswell and Andrej was certainly not "better than Wisconsin, full stop".
wisky a WTF loss???
lol no, 21 point home loss to Maryland or 10 point home loss to a sub .500 USC are WTF home losses
an overtime loss with multiple bench players starting and playing 30 mins because we were down 2 of our best players is in no way a WTF home loss... wisky is good, the game went to the wire, we were extremely shorthanded, so on
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
That's fair, and I freely admit they are two of the (at least somewhat decent) teams in the league this year with which I am the least familiar. My surface level analysis was mostly just that the big guy on UCLA who can knock down threes at a great rate scares me more than anyone on Wisconsin repeating the performance they had in Champaign. Totally a gut (perhaps illogical) feeling, but I would feel more "sentimentally" confident that we would smoke Wisconsin in a rematch.
Have we clinched the triple bye if we beat Maryland and Oregon? I literally tried putting in every scenario I can think of — including MSU beating scUM — and Illinois is still top 4.
extra impressive that this now 2.5 months stretch- we were down 1 (or 2) starters in about half of these games… torvik doesn’t even take that into account
The scenario I’d root for is Illinois and Nebraska both win out. Want Nebby in the semifinal.
Not sure but this page indicates that based off their simulations, we have a 100% chance of getting the triple bye.
If Nebraska loses to UCLA…. I can’t find how IL and Nebraska could be lined up as a 2/3.
Edit: I guess Purdue would need to lose once more.
Edit: I guess Purdue would need to lose once more.
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I referenced this a few pages back. As long as we avoid the two Q3 games:
The BEST thing that can happen for our BTT seeding is for Nebraska and Purdue to both win out
And Michigan State to lose to Indiana and Michigan State.
We'd be the 3seed -- and while other potential scenarios could give us the 2seed -- the way certain matchups line up...
that's what'll give us the best chance to get to the conf championship game.
The BEST thing that can happen for our BTT seeding is for Nebraska and Purdue to both win out
And Michigan State to lose to Indiana and Michigan State.
We'd be the 3seed -- and while other potential scenarios could give us the 2seed -- the way certain matchups line up...
that's what'll give us the best chance to get to the conf championship game.
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