People can crunch numbers and stats until their eyes fall out, but that only tells part of the story ... and believe me, that means a lot coming from a guy who is all about analytics and even deals with that stuff for my career! But for me, this squad's Big Ten games have fit fairly neatly into three (quite subjective!!) categories. Keep in mind, we can have varying performance levels within each category (e.g., we played objectively better at USC compared to at Ohio State, but they both had that "we came to play" vibe). Using current NET Rankings for context.
Tier 1 | Illini showed up with energy, looked like a well-prepared team, performed like a well-oiled machine and rightfully had fans dreaming of a potential Final Four (or beyond!) run.
Dec. 9 - W 88-80 at #34 Ohio State
Jan. 8 - W 81-55 vs. Rutgers
Jan. 11 - W 75-69 at Iowa
Jan. 24 - W 88-82 at Purdue
Feb. 1 - W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
Feb. 4 - W 84-44 vs. Northwestern
Feb. 7 - L 82-85 in OT at Michigan State
Feb. 15 - W 71-51 vs. Indiana
Feb. 18 - W 101-65 at USC
March 3 - W 80-54 vs. Oregon
Tier 2 | Illini still looked like a solid team, but issues that haunted us last year reared their ugly heads at times (e.g., defensive breakdowns, inconsistent effort, not getting to the hoop when the threes weren't falling, etc.). Still, most fans
Dec. 13 - L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska*
Jan. 3 - W 73-65 at #124 Penn State
Jan. 14 - W 79-68 at Northwestern
Jan. 17 - W 77-67 vs. Minnesota
Jan. 29 - W 75-66 vs. Washington
Feb. 10 - L 90-92 in OT vs. Wisconsin
Tier 3 | Illini showed WAY too much of the issues we had last year and rightfully had fans worrying that we would be especially susceptible to an early exit in March Madness.
Feb. 21 - L 94-95 in OT at UCLA**
Feb. 27 - L 70-84 vs. Michigan***
The TL;DR here is that anything above a Tier 3 effort in College Park should have the Illini coming away with a win that was never truly in doubt. We have a lot to play for, and the boys better realize that ... our performance vs. Oregon gives me confidence that they're once again locked in. Let's hope we look back at the February 21 to February 27 stretch as nothing more than a mini-slump that served as a nice kick in the rear! Only steps forward, NO steps back! Keep up the momentum from the Oregon win and keep building on it. We need confidence and momentum heading into the BTT and NCAAs, and smacking a bad Maryland team at their place would be great for that!!
* The first Nebraska matchup was arguably half Tier 3 and half Tier 1, lol ... so I split the difference.
** The beginning of the UCLA game was unambiguously Tier 1, and we did keep our composure and kept fighting toward the very end at least at a Tier 2 level. Also, I do think UCLA is a good team, so there is no shame in the loss in and of itself or "on paper." However, blowing a 20-point lead and playing that bad of defense when we needed a stop for the win shifts the overall product to Tier 3 for me.
*** I'll probably take heat for this one given how elite Michigan looks, but come on ... the intangibles in this effort were just such trash. We looked TRULY soft and more of a "mess" than any other time since our UConn loss, if you ask me.
