Bracketology

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#2      
21ChampaignSt
Big week. Results from the conference tourneys could either solidify us as a 2 or push us to a 3. And I do think that matters.

Here are the Torvik rankings since February 1 of the 6 and 11 seeds (based on Bracketmatrix) vs the rankings of the 7 and 10 seeds.

6 seeds
Tennessee - #17
Wisconsin - #10
Louisville- #18
BYU - #59
MEDIAN = #17.5

11 seeds
Texas - #48
Miami (OH) - #74
SMU - #61
Santa Clara - #36
VCU - #34
IU - #57
MEDIAN = #52.5

7 seeds
Kentucky - #27
Saint Mary's - #12
Miami (FL) - #24
Villanova- #42
MEDIAN = #25.5

10 seeds
N.C. St. - #58
Ohio St. - #13
UCF - #66
Missouri - #26
MEDIAN = #42

So, while there are a few potential land mines in the path of a 2 seed (St. Mary's, OSU), you're most likely to get a fringe top 25 team or worse in the second round. Meanwhile, if you're a 3 seed you're likely to get a team who is playing at a top 10 to 20 level. Big difference, IMO.

Of course, this is all going to change so this was probably a waste of time.
 
#3      
OrangeBlue98
So is the general consensus that a win on Friday makes a 2 seed a high probability? Because to be honest, I think an extra day of rest would do this team a world of good right now. Obviously, a win Saturday would be helpful. But if a loss isn’t hurtful, I think more rest helps more than an additional game Sunday.
 
#4      
Illinialldayeveryday
OrangeBlue98 said:
So is the general consensus that a win on Friday makes a 2 seed a high probability? Because to be honest, I think an extra day of rest would do this team a world of good right now. Obviously, a win Saturday would be helpful. But if a loss isn’t hurtful, I think more rest helps more than an additional game Sunday.
Click to expand...
Yes and as much as it pains me probably root for Sparty on the other side of bracket I think they have a 2 seed locked down. I think 2 teams that can pass us are Iowa State and Nebraska. Purdue and Bama would need long runs in their tournament and us to lose Friday game.
 
#5      
Piotyr
Today's auto bids:

- SoCon: #1 ETSU vs #6 Furman - ETSU is the favorite and hasn't reached the tournament since 2018.
- Sun Belt: Just gaze upon this bracket...
1773064547424.png

The ladder of all ladder brackets, designed to make sure the bad teams don't steal bids, and yet here's #10 Georgia Southern having already won 5 games in 5 days. Win one more against top seed Troy and they'll find their way into the play-in game. A Troy win likely puts them on the 15h line (aka potential Illini opponent).
 
#6      
Weatherspoon1
You don’t have to tell me I was there lol. Cubicles were about 15 feet apart. He told me twice one day you’re gonna see me on tv I’ll be a millionaire. At the time he had zero contacts. He did it - amazing. He knows I’m a diehard Illini fan we still text occasionally.
 

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#7      
Vinegarben
So is the general consensus that a win on Friday makes a 2 seed a high probability? Because to be honest, I think an extra day of rest would do this team a world of good right now. Obviously, a win Saturday would be helpful. But if a loss isn’t hurtful, I think more rest helps more than an additional game Sunday.
Click to expand...
These guys just had a few days off. Every time they get 4-5 days off they come out and look like they never saw a basketball before. We need to quit making excuses for them, they were never consistent.
 
#8      
Vinegarben
Fears kicks another player in balls and Ole Pathetic crybaby Tom says it was ANOTHER ACCIDENT. He needs to retire. He is okay with the dirty play. If the Illini play them again I would send AJ Redd out and kick Fears in the nuts so hard that he will never play again!
 
#11      
the juiceman cometh
Piotyr said:
Today's auto bids:

- SoCon: #1 ETSU vs #6 Furman - ETSU is the favorite and hasn't reached the tournament since 2018.
- Sun Belt: Just gaze upon this bracket...
View attachment 48110
The ladder of all ladder brackets, designed to make sure the bad teams don't steal bids, and yet here's #10 Georgia Southern having already won 5 games in 5 days. Win one more against top seed Troy and they'll find their way into the play-in game. A Troy win likely puts them on the 15h line (aka potential Illini opponent).
Click to expand...
I always wonder if brackets like this actually (and completely unintendedly, because I agree with your assessment of the intent of the design) help lower seeds more than a regular bracket. It's hard to win games day-after-day, but I think after a certain points some of these teams are running on an adrenaline from their last X numbers of victories that are all so fresh they can still remember the feeling, and facing opponents who, the longer this run goes, have had a bit too much of a break. On the other side of the draw #8 Southern Miss also got kinda hot and made it to the Semifinal. Kind of a similar phenomenon to bad performances most bye teams have had in the CFP.

Add in that GA Southern ends up, after 4 wins, facing a Marshall team they beat twice in February and I think that was just a really tough assignment for Marshall.
 
#12      
Illinicpa14
21ChampaignSt said:
Big week. Results from the conference tourneys could either solidify us as a 2 or push us to a 3. And I do think that matters.

Here are the Torvik rankings since February 1 of the 6 and 11 seeds (based on Bracketmatrix) vs the rankings of the 7 and 10 seeds.

6 seeds
Tennessee - #17
Wisconsin - #10
Louisville- #18
BYU - #59
MEDIAN = #17.5

11 seeds
Texas - #48
Miami (OH) - #74
SMU - #61
Santa Clara - #36
VCU - #34
IU - #57
MEDIAN = #52.5

7 seeds
Kentucky - #27
Saint Mary's - #12
Miami (FL) - #24
Villanova- #42
MEDIAN = #25.5

10 seeds
N.C. St. - #58
Ohio St. - #13
UCF - #66
Missouri - #26
MEDIAN = #42

So, while there are a few potential land mines in the path of a 2 seed (St. Mary's, OSU), you're most likely to get a fringe top 25 team or worse in the second round. Meanwhile, if you're a 3 seed you're likely to get a team who is playing at a top 10 to 20 level. Big difference, IMO.

Of course, this is all going to change so this was probably a waste of time.
Click to expand...
And on top of this - if we are in St Louis, of those 6 seeds we can’t draw BYU because they can’t play on Sunday; so you’d be with even better teams
 
#13      
Fly Illini Fly!
In the scenario that we beat Wisconsin but lose to Michigan... and ISU beats Baylor, TTU, and loses to Arizona --

will we still remain above ISU?
 
#14      
the juiceman cometh
Fly Illini Fly! said:
In the scenario that we beat Wisconsin but lose to Michigan... and ISU beats Baylor, TTU, and loses to Arizona --

will we still remain above ISU?
Click to expand...
I think so, because of Q1A wins. That scenario likely puts us at the same number of Q1 wins as ISU, which is 8 (we currently have 7, they have 6). Though it is possible that ISU's win over Baylor would knock Baylor outside the top 50, thus making that a Q2 win for ISU. ISU would have more Q2 wins (currently they have 10 vs our 7). But we have a major Q1A advantage over ISU. ISU is 3-5 in Q1A. We are 6-6. In your scenario, even with the win over TTU, ISU would still only have 4 Q1A wins. If Wisconsin sneaks into the top-25 with a win over Washington/USC, and stays there after we beat them, that puts us at 7 Q1A wins.

Q1A wins are, I think, going to be big for us. The only teams that have more than us are Michigan (9), Duke (9), and Arizona (7). The only other team that has 6 is Kansas. Hopefully the committee puts a lot of weight on that. Our schedule is really interesting. Not many Q2 games. And really very few of the "lower" Q1 games. We had 14 total Q1 games, and 12 of them were Q1A. Compare that with Florida who racked up 11 Q1 wins, but only 3 Q1A wins (and is just 3-3 in Q1A games).
 
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#16      
the juiceman cometh
Looking at the BTT bracket, I'm thinking the best thing for us on the other side is for Purdue to go on a run and take out Nebraska and MSU, right? (assuming MSU does not get upset prior to that by UCLA/Minn/Rutgers). That could put us ahead of Nebraska and MSU if we win our first game, and may still not be enough to move Purdue ahead of us if we both end up losing to UM.
 
#18      
wc_illini
After yesterday, we held steady in the average of the efficiency rankings at 6th, and moved up in the resume rankings from T-13th to 11th. Our betting odds to win the NCAAT dropped slightly, though we're still very close to UConn at 6th/7th.
 
#20      
Altuve27
OrangeBlue98 said:
So is the general consensus that a win on Friday makes a 2 seed a high probability? Because to be honest, I think an extra day of rest would do this team a world of good right now. Obviously, a win Saturday would be helpful. But if a loss isn’t hurtful, I think more rest helps more than an additional game Sunday.
Click to expand...
100%. We are playing for a 2 seed Friday. Beat Wisconsin and Illinois has a 95% chance of being a 2. The percentage is probably higher than that.
 
#21      
Illinicpa14
the juiceman cometh said:
Looking at the BTT bracket, I'm thinking the best thing for us on the other side is for Purdue to go on a run and take out Nebraska and MSU, right? (assuming MSU does not get upset prior to that by UCLA/Minn/Rutgers). That could put us ahead of Nebraska and MSU if we win our first game, and may still not be enough to move Purdue ahead of us if we both end up losing to UM.
Click to expand...
I’m gonna throw up - but I think you’d be okay with MSU winning that side.

Nebraska can probably move up with 2 big Q1 wins over Purdue and MSU

The real answer is UCLA lol
 
#24      
Curbelo Fanboy
Piotyr said:
Today's auto bids:

- SoCon: #1 ETSU vs #6 Furman - ETSU is the favorite and hasn't reached the tournament since 2018.
- Sun Belt: Just gaze upon this bracket...
View attachment 48110
The ladder of all ladder brackets, designed to make sure the bad teams don't steal bids, and yet here's #10 Georgia Southern having already won 5 games in 5 days. Win one more against top seed Troy and they'll find their way into the play-in game. A Troy win likely puts them on the 15h line (aka potential Illini opponent).
Click to expand...
Everytime I see a bracket like that it transports me back to those cold winter Saturdays as a kid watching the Pro Bowlers Tour on ABC Sports.
 
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