Bracketology

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#177      
BWBW
Uggh, I refuse to watch anything with Bruce Pearl!!
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Clark Kellogg does nothing for me, as well. I am not sure who Adam Zucker is, and Seth Davis is, at best, ok.
 
#180      
Dinger
I'll go the other way. Pearl is going to be on TV all tournament. . . . could you imagine if this was the year we get the monkey off our back? :cool:
 
#181      
EmeraldCityIllini
in the latest ESPN bracketology, they have having michigan playing 16 seed, Idaho.

Idaho currently sits at 144 in kenpom. That's about the highest ive ever seen a 16 in Kenpom.
 
#184      
Illini2010-11
Now the hypothetical discussion becomes reality...

Heart Smile GIF
 
#186      
Konnie
I just saw where Miami of Ohio got beat by Massachusetts, 83 to 87
 
#189      
theNewGuy
lstewart53x3 said:
They're currently 93 in KenPom. Last year, the lowest non-autoqualifier to make the tournament was Utah St at 62. Utah St also had 10 Q1/2 wins and 0 Q3/4 losses. Miami has 2 Q1/2 wins and 1 Q4 loss.
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I don't really care. Winning 31 games in a row is a crazy stat
 
#190      
hooraybeer
theNewGuy said:
I don't really care. Winning 31 games in a row is a crazy stat
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😂 unfortunately for them selections are very much so analytics focused to remove biases. would be shocked if they make it as an at large
 
#191      
wc_illini
hooraybeer said:
😂 unfortunately for them selections are very much so analytics focused to remove biases. would be shocked if they make it as an at large
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But they're supposedly more focused on WAB, SOR, and KPI (resume metrics that ignore scoring margin) at least for for selection, and based on those they're likely in.
 
#192      
IlliniFan42
I liked ranking Miami of Ohio in the top 25 as a lark, but they shouldn't seriously be in consideration for the Big Dance. If you want to get in the Division I Tournament as an at-large, you should only play Division I games.
 
#193      
Illini2010-11
hooraybeer said:
😂 unfortunately for them selections are very much so analytics focused to remove biases. would be shocked if they make it as an at large
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I won't say I would be shocked to see them make it, as long as the Committee uses the WAB metric as the primary tool for selection criteria.

Some of the metrics (resume based) show them as considering an at-large bid, while others suggest (predictive especially) that they do not belong.

It is a tight balancing act for the committee. I personally see them taking Miami in as a "last 4" option. It rewards them for going unbeaten in the regular season while simultaneously punishing them for playing such a weak schedule. Miami can scream that nobody wanted to play them, but it is up to them for building out the schedule, and they failed to present a challenging enough schedule that would hold up to scrutiny (for an at-large bid) in March.

I suspect Miami will be the cautionary tale of scheduling very weak non-conference schedule and rolling through it, only to be upset in conference tourney. What Miami did in the regular season was historic for two reasons: going unbeaten and having one of the weakest schedules in the country going unbeaten.

I personally hope they can get into the tourney to see how they would actually perform against a Quad 1 team.
 
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#194      
wc_illini
Illini2010-11 said:
I won't say I would be shocked to see them make it, as long as the Committee uses the WAB metric as the primary tool for selection criteria.

Some of the metrics (resume based) show them as considering at at-large bid, while others suggest (predictive especially) that they do not belong.

It is a tight balancing act for the committee. I personally see them taking Miami in as a "last 4" option. It rewards them for going unbeaten in the regular season while simultaneously punishing them for playing such a weak schedule. Miami can scream that nobody wanted to play them, but it is up to them for building out the schedule, and they failed to present a challenging enough schedule that would hold up to scrutiny (for an at-large bid) in March.

I suspect Miami will be the cautionary tale of scheduling very weak non-conference schedule and rolling through it, only to be upset in conference tourney. What Miami did in the regular season was historic for two reasons: going unbeaten and having one of the weakest schedules in the country going unbeaten.

I personally hope they can get into the tourney to see how they would actually perform against a Quad 1 team.
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I've already said enough about my opinions, but I don't think they should be punished for a weak schedule. They just should have dominated the games the way we'd expect a top-40 team to do.

So while I don't think they deserve a spot, I'm with you where I want them to lose big to a bad team in the last 4 to help clear this up for the future (not that one game is enough of a sample size to actually say much, but to the committee/media/public it might).
 
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#196      
Second place is 1st loser
theNewGuy said:
I don't really care. Winning 31 games in a row is a crazy stat
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It's a tough call. If you let them in, you're setting an awfully dangerous precedent. They have beaten absolutely nobody this year and now have an awful loss. If we got left out because we were on the bubble, would you feel the same way? It's always easier to make that statement when it's not our team being left out.
 
#198      
Illini2010-11
Second place is 1st loser said:
It's a tough call. If you let them in, you're setting an awfully dangerous precedent. They have beaten absolutely nobody this year and now have an awful loss. If we got left out because we were on the bubble, would you feel the same way? It's always easier to make that statement when it's not our team being left out.
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But if it is Indiana or Auburn being the first out because of Miami...

Sign Up Jimmy Fallon GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 
#199      
kleine
Second place is 1st loser said:
It's a tough call. If you let them in, you're setting an awfully dangerous precedent. They have beaten absolutely nobody this year and now have an awful loss. If we got left out because we were on the bubble, would you feel the same way? It's always easier to make that statement when it's not our team being left out.
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I think setting a precedent of "if you don't lose a game until the conference tournament you're in" is totally fine. how often will that happen? Regardless of their non-conference schedule they still won every. single. game they played and that should get them in - not every at-large qualifier is going to be a threat to win the whole thing, let the fans of an undefeated team dance
 
#200      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
People here will disagree, but if Illinois wins the big ten tournament… and FLA doesn’t win the SEC, and UConn loses to St John’s in the Big East

I find it extremely hard to believe Illinois won’t have a legitimate shot at a 1 (especially with a win over Michigan).

And no we won’t need to win each game by an average of 20 points.
 
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