Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT

[RIP_Chief_2003]

selection chairman said vcu had to win their conf. tourney to get in the Dance......

He really really did…

 

[Altuve27]

I love LaTulip’s thoughts on this team and the need for toughness and the shift in their defensive mindset, reactive vs controlling the offensive player’s direction.

That part of the podcast was really interesting. How you can read and react offensively, but you can’t do that defensively. Defensively it is IMPERATIVE to dictate to the offense what YOU want them to do. FORCE the offensive player to go where YOU want to go.

Interesting stuff.

 

[Se Il Illini]

Are they also sending scouts to check out Texas A & M and provide a full scouting report? How about St. Mary's? Why is it limited to Houston? Odds? That's silly.

I'm not saying they aren't knowledgeable. I'm not saying you aren't knowledgeable. I'm saying that no staff in the country would go down a two week path, when the amount of work that has to go into Penn, VCU AND UNC is overwhelming.

Do we scout the Final Four next week should we survive the first two games?

I think the answer to your first question is yes. I am not an insider so I will speculate that they had several schools besides Penn that they thought might be first round opponents.

 

[Se Il Illini]

I still hear "Demetri move" in my sleep.

It would be nice if somebody on the this years bench would be yelling to all the bystanders on the floor the same thing.

 

[STLini25]

Technology has really helped. I follow a high school of 400+ students and all their football, basketball, volleyball, etc. are live streamed with the exception of NFHS schools.

It’s super easy for college teams. There is a service that has every team and the film is just game film (not tv film) and it’s already categorized. It’s literally all available and ready to analyze immediately.

 

[IlliniNash]

Penn doesn’t have any athletes so I think Illinois handles this game easily. This game should be similar to the Northwestern game.

UNC/VCU…I actually think VCU would be a tougher matchup for Illinois. I don’t think much of Hubert Davis as a coach. VCU plays a ton of guys in their rotation. They are 16-1 in their last 17 games. UNC without Caleb Wilson is a bubble-ish team. They just seem like a mediocre team that doesn’t have much juice in them. VCU feels like a momentum type team. And if they knock off North Carolina they will have lot of confidence going into Sunday

I agree. And the team will get up for the Carolina brand. Not as much for VCU. Hope NC wins.

 

[wc_illini]

Math is right. However, the 3 seed has only won twice in 9 years. Prior to that, Brad Underwood was the head coach of the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks when they defeated West Virginia 70-56 in the first round of the 2016 NCAA

Ah, then disregard other post. This is the one for you:

But this year, the 3 seeds are more heavily favored than in the past. Using odds from BetMGM and attempting to remove their vig:

Illinois: 96.3%
Gonzaga: 93.6%
UVA: 92.6%
MSU: 90.3%

All four win: 75.9%

 

[RollChief]

Here's a fun one for you: Penn will be the worst team Illinois will have played in the calendar year 2026. The second-worst team? Penn State.

If this team is anything, it's a problem for Pennsylvanians.

 

[bluemountain]

GREAT post. When we were playing at our peak our ball movement was excellent. Quick, decisive, hitting guys right in their shooting pocket, etc. We have really fallen off in that area.

Lack of ball movement and very careless passes. Wagler’s decision-making has been very poor during this recent stretch.

This seems to happen to us every year. We have games early and mid-season where ball and player movement is very good, and we get a variety of good shots from a variety of players. Inevitably however, by year-end our offense devolves into a couple of guys trying to beat their man on every possession, with everyone else just standing around. I used to think this was just an Andres Feliz thing, but it has happened every year since then as well. Not sure if it is intentional or is due to lack of discipline, but it is maddening to watch

 

[Illini_1979]

So close...

23 / 160 = 0.14375
1 - 0.14375 = 0.85625
0.85625^4 = 0.538
1 - 0.538 = 0.462 (46.2%)

 

[Barfolomew]

Here's a fun one for you: Penn will be the worst team Illinois will have played in the calendar year 2026. The second-worst team? Penn State.

If this team is anything, it's a problem for Pennsylvanians.

Penn is scouting us and they are Quaking in their boots.

 

[skyIdub]

If we get Tournament Tomi.....like last March....this team is Indy bound. Book it. In ink.

MLT pretty much nailed it. If he shows up, if Wagler gets back to the step back, and we play at least 30 minutes per game of all up in your a$$ defense and rebounding.....we're cutting nets.

Also, if 'if's and but were candy and nuts......

 

[TheChief4Life]

If we get Tournament Tomi.....like last March....this team is Indy bound. Book it. In ink.

MLT pretty much nailed it. If he shows up, if Wagler gets back to the step back, and we play at least 30 minutes per game of all up in your a$$ defense and rebounding.....we're cutting nets.

Also, if 'if's and but were candy and nuts......

As they say… if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. Or my personal favorite:

If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

But, I agree with everything you said. Our best game beats probably everyone else’s best game.

 

[Ramrod2010]

3 seeds have won 137 / 160, or 86%. Assuming the same odds, the chance of all four 3-seeds winning is 0.86^4, or 54%. So there's a 46% chance that at least one 3-seed loses in a given tournament

So basically it either will or won't happen.

Need the video of Scott Steiner math in this thread now.

 

[HensonHall71]

My biggest hope for this team is that they play well in the tournament. Playing well and losing I can accept. When we lose games we should win because we get away from who we are - much harder to swallow.

Having Keaton be aggressive, Tomi making some shots and getting on the glass, Andrej involved from the get go and passing when the defense collapses on him and Mirk being a maniac on the boards, then I'll feel good we got to see the team clicking at the end, no matter how far we go in the tournament.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

I think your brain is on the right track but your logic is wrong.

Let’s apply what you’re doing to a 5-12 seed. 12 seeds have won 57 games in that same timespan. 57/40 x 100 = 142.5% chance of a 12 over a 5 in this tournament? That doesn’t make any sense.

Probability Math unfortunately does not work this clean or simple.

My thought was that there have been 40 tournaments played. 23 of them featured a 3-14 upset.

Your 5seed example has many years where multiple 12seeds won. There hasn't been any years where multiple 14seeds won -- THAT"S WHAT I THOUGHT, but I was wrong. There have been 8 times multiple 3seeds beat a 14seed.

Their approximation is pretty close. Using the historical data of a 14.25% chance of any given 3-14 game being an upset, the odds that there is at least one 3-14 upset in a given year is: 1-[odds all 3 seeds win] = 1-[1-.1425]**4 = 56.1%

So close...

23 / 160 = 0.14375
1 - 0.14375 = 0.85625
0.85625^4 = 0.538
1 - 0.538 = 0.462 (46.2%)

SO, if we'd like to use the probability formulas, here's the gist.

Formula for probability of 1 upset: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4

Formula for probability of 2 upsets: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4 - 4p(1-p) ^ 3

For 3-14 games: p = 0.144

For 4-13 games: p = 0.206

For 5-12 games: p = 0.356

So, the probability of at least one 3-14 upset in a given tournament: 46.29%

The probability of at least one 4-13 upset in a given tournament: 60.26%

The probability of at least one 5-12 upset in a given tournament: 82.80%

.....

The probability of at least TWO 3-14 upsets in a given tournament: 10.18%

The probability of at least TWO 4-13 upsets in a given tournament: 24.22%

The probability of at least TWO 5-12 upsets in a given tournament: 54.87%

 

[Knee brace]

Penn is scouting us and they are Quaking in their boots.

Nate Oats says hi

 

[AirTran]

Ah, then disregard other post. This is the one for you:

So long the 14 seeds / short the 3 seeds - on an overall basis trade - correct?

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

My thought was that there have been 40 tournaments played. 23 of them featured a 3-14 upset.

Your 5seed example has many years where multiple 12seeds won. There hasn't been any years where multiple 14seeds won -- THAT"S WHAT I THOUGHT, but I was wrong. There have been 8 times multiple 3seeds beat a 14seed.


SO, if we'd like to use the probability formulas, here's the gist.

Formula for probability of 1 upset: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4

Formula for probability of 2 upsets: 1 - (1 - p) ^ 4 - 4p(1-p) ^ 3

For 3-14 games: p = 0.144

For 4-13 games: p = 0.206

For 5-12 games: p = 0.356

So, the probability of at least one 3-14 upset in a given tournament: 46.29%

The probability of at least one 4-13 upset in a given tournament: 60.26%

The probability of at least one 5-12 upset in a given tournament: 82.80%

.....

The probability of at least TWO 3-14 upsets in a given tournament: 10.18%

The probability of at least TWO 4-13 upsets in a given tournament: 24.22%

The probability of at least TWO 5-12 upsets in a given tournament: 54.87%

Speaks to how disappointing last year’s tournament was. And probably this year will be the same.

Oh well, as long as my team isn’t losing, no problem.

 

[New Creation]

Maybe we are built for march??

CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 on Instagram: "Brent Stover revealed his bracket for March Madness this year! Fill out your bracket now at the link in bio."

32K likes, 648 comments - cbssportscbb on March 15, 2026: "Brent Stover revealed his bracket for March Madness this year! Fill out your bracket now at the link in bio.".

www.instagram.com

 

[illini0440]

So basically it either will or won't happen.

Need the video of Scott Steiner math in this thread now.

It’s very simple we have a 141 and 2/3s %chance to win it all.

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Penn doesn’t have any athletes so I think Illinois handles this game easily. This game should be similar to the Northwestern game.

UNC/VCU…I actually think VCU would be a tougher matchup for Illinois. I don’t think much of Hubert Davis as a coach. VCU plays a ton of guys in their rotation. They are 16-1 in their last 17 games. UNC without Caleb Wilson is a bubble-ish team. They just seem like a mediocre team that doesn’t have much juice in them. VCU feels like a momentum type team. And if they knock off North Carolina they will have lot of confidence going into Sunday

I can't help but say that their confidence going into Sunday had better be very low . . . Because the game is Saturday and they should've gone home sad

 

[TheChief4Life]

So basically it either will or won't happen.

How does Kurt Angle fit into the mix?

 

[March2TheArch]

VCU would be a great draw, they are barely a tournament team.

We almost beat UCLA and MSU (both away) and they each have arguably two top 5 fastest PGs who primarily score in the paint. Blackwell is a threat to score at all three levels. And we blew big leads against them twice in the state of Illinois. All of them overtime losses.

I have hope that playing a double digit seed with speedy guards should be a win. No Caleb Wilson on UNC takes away that threat.

Fleming and Houston’s athletes will be as tough a match up in different ways as Michigan with Mount Mara, Morez THAT DUDE Johnson, and B1G PoY.

 

[PNWIllini]

I agree. And the team will get up for the Carolina brand. Not as much for VCU. Hope NC wins.

I don’t like facing Blue Bloods especially close to home. Refball ensues too often.