NCAA Tournament Bracket

Status
Not open for further replies.
#76      
From the cheap seats
People can scream at the clouds about NIL, the transfer portal, the influx of foreign players, the sad state of officiating in the B1G and virtually anything to do with the NCAA administration. But by far the most egregious thing to happen to college basketball was giving a microphone and any semblance of legitimacy to Bruce Pearl.
I'm just thankful that Deon Thomas was able to overcome Pearl's despicable scheme. Pearl didn't care at all if he might ruin a young man's career in his quest to take down an opponent. Deon was just collateral damage to him. Pearl's entire career as a coach was built on cheating, lying and scheming.
 
#80      
Fighter of the Nightman
I feel like someone will find something "unlucky" about any bracket we get, but let's play that exercise for some other Big Ten teams...

#1 Michigan: Michigan's draw looks alright and they get Chicago, but I'm POSITIVE fans would be complaining about getting Iowa State as the #2 seed (who will also bring plenty of fans to Chicago, possibly as many as Michigan) if we were in this spot. I also think Texas Tech and Alabama have a lot more "random upside" (lol) than a lot of #4/#5 matchups.

#2 Purdue: This looked like our dream draw on paper that we pissed away, getting St. Louis, a potential rivalry rematch with Missouri in the Second Round and a theoretically weaker #3 seed in Gonzaga. However, it reminds me a lot of our 2024 draw, where you have an excellent Sweet Sixteen and even Elite Eight opportunity, but it sucks to have to go through the only #1 seed that looks truly elite right now.

#3 Michigan State: Finishes the season strong (only losses being at Michigan and a close loss vs. a hot UCLA squad in the BTT), think they're in line for a #2 seed and get that #2 seed swiped by a Purdue squad they beat in West Lafayette. They're instead put on a collision course with either (A) March Madness Dan Hurley or (B) the same UCLA squad that just beat them, all for a right to play Duke.

#4 Nebraska: Not saying they didn't do it to themselves, but they were CRUISING for a #2 seed at one point, and now even if they get past their nerves and win their first NCAA Tournament game EVER, they'll face a surging Vanderbilt who would have an excellent chance of knocking them out in the Second Round and then they'd likely face a defending-champion Florida team that very well could "right the ship" by the Sweet Sixteen.

#5 Wisconsin: The Badgers have played as well as anyone, and they'll be rewarded with a classic #5/#12 trap game, a path through an arguably equally surging Arkansas and then what is being billed as easily the best #1 seed at the moment, Arizona. They would be a hot pick for an Elite Eight or even Final Four run with a luckier draw, and they'll probably consider themselves lucky to get the right to get smoked by Arizona, lol.

#8 Ohio State: Ends the season on a tear and gets rewarded with the so-called "Prestige Region," getting to play a de facto road game vs. Duke if it even survives the Second Round. If it sells out for an upset of Duke, it has a surging St. John's (NY) squad waiting.

We got a perfectly fine draw. Any #3 seed worth a damn should get to the Second Round, so there is no point analyzing that too much. We then got a #6 seed that is closer to a #8 or #9 in the metrics, meaning if we bring our A game, we WILL be in the Sweet Sixteen. Even the supposed crowd disadvantage with playing UNC in Greenville is luckily counterbalanced by Duke also being there and having its fans certainly rooting for us. We then get a tough Houston squad, but guess what? UConn was the only other #2 seed anyone would have wanted to face, and they beat us soundly ... let's take our chances vs. Houston. We then (at least IMO) got the bracket with the single most likely upset of a #1 seed simply because Florida could go through a series of teams (Vandy, Nebraska and even Iowa) that have proven inconsistent yet capable of putting together "that performance" that takes down a #1.

If that players-only meeting can light a fire with these guys and reignite that sense of toughness we had earlier this year, this team can absolutely go to the Final Four. Houston is a very good team, and they will be a tough matchup for us ... but they haven't beaten anyone seeded as highly as us all year, either. And playing Houston in an NBA gym in Houston (where there would be at least a decent number of Illini fans traveling, as there always is) wouldn't be any more intimidating than a Black Out at Mackey or a White Out in Lincoln, both of which we withstood with poise and came out with a W.

Let's do this!!
 
#81      
Piotyr
This years seeds by KenPom rating. Find the outliers!

1 - 1, 2, 3, 4
2 - 5, 6, 8, 11
3 - 7, 9, 10, 13
4 - 14, 15, 18, 21
5 - 12, 17, 20, 22
6 - 16, 19, 23, 29
7 - 24, 27, 28, 31
8 - 26, 32, 33, 36
9 - 25, 30, 41, 43
10 - 35, 39, 52, 54
11 - 34, 37, 42, 45, 47, 93
12 - 64, 68, 72, 92
13 - 87, 106, 108, 143
14 - 113, 140, 150, 163
15 - 145, 181, 187, 191
16 - 185, 192, 207, 216, 284, 288
 
#82      
lstewart53x3
Piotyr said:
This years seeds by KenPom rating. Find the outliers!

1 - 1, 2, 3, 4
2 - 5, 6, 8, 11
3 - 7, 9, 10, 13
4 - 14, 15, 18, 21
5 - 12, 17, 20, 22
6 - 16, 19, 23, 29
7 - 24, 27, 28, 31
8 - 26, 32, 33, 36
9 - 25, 30, 41, 43
10 - 35, 39, 52, 54
11 - 34, 37, 42, 45, 47, 93
12 - 64, 68, 72, 92
13 - 87, 106, 108, 143
14 - 113, 140, 150, 163
15 - 145, 181, 187, 191
16 - 185, 192, 207, 216, 284, 288
Click to expand...
These 7 teams are ranked higher in KenPom than at least 5 teams seeded ahead of them:

SeedKenPom Rank
512
616
826
925
930
1134
1137

These 8 teams are ranked lower in KenPom than at least 5 teams seeded below them:

SeedKenPom
421
629
836
941
943
1052
1054
1193
 
#85      
Piotyr
lstewart53x3 said:
These 7 teams are ranked higher in KenPom than at least 5 teams seeded ahead of them:

SeedKenPom Rank
512
616
826
925
930
1134
1137

These 8 teams are ranked lower in KenPom than at least 5 teams seeded below them:

SeedKenPom
421
629
836
941
943
1052
1054
1193
Click to expand...
Underseeded (according to KenPom): Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Ohio State, Iowa, Utah State, NC State, Texas (who just happen to be playing each other in the play-in)

Overseeded: Kansas, North Carolina, Clemson, Saint Louis, TCU, Missouri, UCF, Miami OH (though as an at large there wasn't any lower they could go)
 
#86      
danielb927
Excited for the tourney this year. Our draw looks rough with Houston in Houston, but it's probably the best case scenario for making the Sweet Sixteen or Final Four -- just a tougher matchup to get to the E8.

I built a tool that lets you check how likely a bracket is to win a given pool (size + scoring) using KenPom for the team ratings and Yahoo public pick data. It also lets you adjust the team strengths if you think any teams are under/overvalued by KenPom. Thought some folks here might be interested in trying it!

WYOP - Win Your Office Pool
 
#89      
Fly Illini Fly!
Hingle McCringleberry said:
Illinois is 0/5 in one possession (+/- 3 pts) games this year.

If you include Bama (we lost by 4) that would be 0/6.

Better hope we dominate teams, as have yet to figure out how to win a close game.

Anything beyond the Sweet 16 is gravy.
Click to expand...
Why just look at final scores? Really don’t understand that logic.

Purdue was a 2pt game with 20sec left:

IMB_oWADzp.gif
 
#90      
EmeraldCityIllini
Hingle McCringleberry said:
Illinois is 0/5 in one possession (+/- 3 pts) games this year.

If you include Bama (we lost by 4) that would be 0/6.

Better hope we dominate teams, as have yet to figure out how to win a close game.

Anything beyond the Sweet 16 is gravy.
Click to expand...

Is there any reason you made mention to include Bama as a 4-point result and left out Texas Tech as a 4-point result? Genuinely curious.
 
#94      
Fighter of the Nightman
Random thought, but I am curious how many Mizzou fans will take up space in St. Louis. They're obviously the single most popular team in that MSA, but their fans regularly don't carry their weight at Braggin' Rights and this isn't a situation where they're just afforded half the tickets from the get-go. I would expect Purdue, Kentucky and Iowa State fans to travel quite well, and I think Missouri could end up having no material crowd advantage.
 
#98      
NarrowJ
TheChief4Life said:
Honestly, Illinois played in a lot of games that were tied with just under 40 minutes left and won a vast majority of them. Why didn’t you take those into consideration?!?!?!?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I mean there’s a slew of games that were 1-2 possessions late and we ran away

When we win we typically do it convincingly and when we lose it’s usually… barely

We want to frame that as a negative but imagine being Miami OH and winning nearly every game by only a couple points (means you’re not as good as your record)

Our record in coin flip games is what dictates our KP luck ranking the past two seasons: 248th and 305th
 
#99      
TheChief4Life
NarrowJ said:
Yeah, I mean there’s a slew of games that were 1-2 possessions late and we ran away

When we win we typically do it convincingly and when we lose it’s usually… barely

We want to frame that as a negative but imagine being Miami OH and winning nearly every game by only a couple points (means you’re not as good as your record)

Our record in coin flip games is what dictates our KP luck ranking the past two seasons: 248th and 305th
Click to expand...
Re-read my post. I was being facetious. 🙂😂
 
#100      
Hingle McCringleberry
TheChief4Life said:
Honestly, Illinois played in a lot of games that were tied with just under 40 minutes left and won a vast majority of them. Why didn’t you take those into consideration?!?!?!?
Click to expand...
Assuming you meant 40 seconds. I am open to counter points of view.

My point is that this team is currently struggling mightily with winning close games. How are we in overtime games this year? And candidly we were lucky to make it to OT in a bunch of those games. Sorry, not going to count them, but you can if you wish.

You cannot fix a problem that you : 1) don't acknowledge & 2) don't attempt to implement a solution. Sorry, that fact is not debatable fellas.

My bigger issue that Underwood was super reluctant to accept the problem (childish rant against that question 2 games ago) and has yet to discuss what he is doing differently to affect a positive change to get a better outcome.

Thankfully Bam took matters into his own hands and called a player only meeting, at least he is doing something about it.

Look, I want my my Alma Mater to win as much as anyone. I just can't stand lack of accountability, especially when those that should be accountable are being paid a kings ransom to be accountable.

But maybe accountability is a value of the past in this day and age. Everybody just gets the biggest "bag" they can and that's good enough.

Maybe he should talk to Bret to see what he has done to put the football team in the position to win close games, because they have done that.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back