Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT

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#626      
Hingle McCringleberry
Mottman26 said:
It's important to remember that we missed the first 4 tournaments this graphic is referencing, so we have no wins from 2015-2019 to add to our total. It would be more interesting to see the total wins from the last 6 tournaments when this year's is over. That would cover the 7 seasons that our conference leading wins total comes from.
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🏀 Top 20 Teams by NCAA Tournament Wins (Last 6 Tournaments)​


🥇 Tier 1 — Dominant Programs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
1Connecticut Huskies17Titles (2023, 2024)
2Gonzaga Bulldogs15Title game (2021), multiple deep runs
3Houston Cougars13Final Four + consistent deep runs
4Kansas Jayhawks12Title (2022)
5Baylor Bears11Title (2021)


🥈 Tier 2 — Consistent Deep Runs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
6Duke Blue Devils11Final Four (2022), deep runs
7North Carolina Tar Heels10Runner-up (2022)
8Purdue Boilermakers10Runner-up (2024)
9UCLA Bruins10Final Four (2021)
10Texas Tech Red Raiders9Runner-up (2019)


🥉 Tier 3 — Strong + Breakout Programs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
11Michigan Wolverines9Title game (2019), Elite 8 (2021)
12Arkansas Razorbacks9Back-to-back Elite Eights
13Villanova Wildcats8Final Four (2022)
14Florida Atlantic Owls8Final Four (2023)
15San Diego State Aztecs8Runner-up (2023)


🏅 Tier 4 — Consistent Winners​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
16Miami Hurricanes8Final Four (2023)
17Kentucky Wildcats7Multiple Sweet 16s
18Alabama Crimson Tide7Final Four (2024)
19Wisconsin Badgers7Steady appearances
20Auburn Tigers7Final Four (2019)
 
#627      
Hingle McCringleberry
Hingle McCringleberry said:

🏀 Top 20 Teams by NCAA Tournament Wins (Last 6 Tournaments)​


🥇 Tier 1 — Dominant Programs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
1Connecticut Huskies17Titles (2023, 2024)
2Gonzaga Bulldogs15Title game (2021), multiple deep runs
3Houston Cougars13Final Four + consistent deep runs
4Kansas Jayhawks12Title (2022)
5Baylor Bears11Title (2021)


🥈 Tier 2 — Consistent Deep Runs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
6Duke Blue Devils11Final Four (2022), deep runs
7North Carolina Tar Heels10Runner-up (2022)
8Purdue Boilermakers10Runner-up (2024)
9UCLA Bruins10Final Four (2021)
10Texas Tech Red Raiders9Runner-up (2019)


🥉 Tier 3 — Strong + Breakout Programs​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
11Michigan Wolverines9Title game (2019), Elite 8 (2021)
12Arkansas Razorbacks9Back-to-back Elite Eights
13Villanova Wildcats8Final Four (2022)
14Florida Atlantic Owls8Final Four (2023)
15San Diego State Aztecs8Runner-up (2023)


🏅 Tier 4 — Consistent Winners​


RankTeamTotal WinsKey Runs
16Miami Hurricanes8Final Four (2023)
17Kentucky Wildcats7Multiple Sweet 16s
18Alabama Crimson Tide7Final Four (2024)
19Wisconsin Badgers7Steady appearances
20Auburn Tigers7Final Four (2019)
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🏀 Illinois NCAA Tournament Wins (Last 6 Tournaments)​


YearResultWins
2025Beat Xavier, lost to Kentucky1
2024Elite Eight (3 wins, lost to UConn)3
2023Lost in Round of 640
2022Beat Chattanooga, lost to Houston1
2021Beat Drexel, lost to Loyola Chicago1
2019Did not make tournament0

Total Wins (Last 6 Tournaments): 👉 6 wins
 
#628      
pweo
Mottman26 said:
It's important to remember that we missed the first 4 tournaments this graphic is referencing, so we have no wins from 2015-2019 to add to our total. It would be more interesting to see the total wins from the last 6 tournaments when this year's is over. That would cover the 7 seasons that our conference leading wins total comes from.
Click to expand...
https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2019&yrhigh=2025&type=coach&sort=1 sort by whatever you want. I went by coaches instead of schools.
 
#629      
EmeraldCityIllini
Mottman26 said:
It's important to remember that we missed the first 4 tournaments this graphic is referencing, so we have no wins from 2015-2019 to add to our total. It would be more interesting to see the total wins from the last 6 tournaments when this year's is over. That would cover the 7 seasons that our conference leading wins total comes from.
Click to expand...

Graphic shows the value of making the tournament year over year.

Underwood could go 1-1 every tournament for next 5 years (including this one) and be on this list of programs with most tourney wins past 10 years. (And we rightfully would be disappointed)
 
#630      
Birdus
Screw all of that. Let's see what happens with this year. If Underwood gets to the final4 or championship game, all is forgiven for the moment. If he Wins the championship, he will probably get a bronzed dipped statue.
 
#632      
wc_illini
sulli said:
I think the people ranking and seeding both use results in addition to the predictive metrics, which pushes us down. Probably recency too even though they claim they don't. That's why is UConn and Purdue are both 2 seeds and Illinois is a 3 seed. Which is probably the right way to do it to be honest.
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Yes, the seeds are more correlated with the resume rankings, especially SOR and WAB, than the efficiency ranks, but it isn't consistent. There were claims that efficiency was going to be the primary seeding criteria, so part of my surprise at some seeds is based on that expectation. And I wasn't complaining because of our seed. Here are some outliers:

Vandy (5 seed): #9 resume, #11 efficiency. Non-blueblood prejudice?
St John's (5 seed): #13 resume, #15 efficiency. Favored their efficiency and are only off by one seed, but this contradicts the recency theory
Kansas (4 seed): #16 resume, #21 efficiency. Favored their resume and/or blueblood bias?
Utah St (9 seed): #28 resume, #30 efficiency. Non-blueblood prejudice?
Miami FL (7 seed): #26 resume, #34 efficiency. Favored their resume
VCU (11 seed): #34 resume, #41 efficiency. Favored their efficiency

Maybe there are circumstances for each of these teams (or the teams around them) that I'm not considering, like injuries affecting a stretch of the season or their opponents during key victories, but I'd at least prefer if the committee would commit to something like an average of the ranking systems (ideally weighted towards efficiency) as a hard starting point, and releasing brief explanations of any deviations from that.
 
#633      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
Fly Illini Fly! said:
However, it’s in these last 4 games (Michigan / Oregon / Maryland / Wisconsin) that our offense has slumped, as we’ve only cracked 1.2ppp ONCE in that 4 game stretch (Maryland).
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Fly Illini Fly! said:
Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure we were over 1.2 in every game from UConn to UCLA — that’s 3 months — outside of the Michigan State game.
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Tennessee - 1.26
Ohio State - 1.27
Nebraska - 1.28
Missouri - 1.43
Southern - 1.39
Penn State - 1.10
Rutgers - 1.27
Iowa - 1.15
Northwestern - 1.30
Minnesota - 1.26
Maryland - 1.32
Purdue - 1.39
Washington - 1.22
Nebraska - 1.23
Northwestern - 1.30
Michigan State - 1.15
Wisconsin - 1.22
Indiana - 1.26
USC - 1.44
UCLA - 1.29

Last 4 games:

Michigan - 1.05
Oregon - 1.15
Maryland - 1.25
Wisconsin - 1.19

Bit concerned why the downward trajectory? Overall, extremely impressive and historic.
 
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#634      
EmeraldCityIllini
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Tennessee - 1.26
Ohio State - 1.27
Nebraska - 1.28
Missouri - 1.43
Southern - 1.39
Penn State - 1.10
Rutgers - 1.27
Iowa - 1.15
Northwestern - 1.30
Minnesota - 1.26
Maryland - 1.32
Purdue - 1.39
Washington - 1.22
Nebraska - 1.23
Northwestern - 1.30
Michigan State - 1.15
Wisconsin - 1.22
Indiana - 1.26
USC - 1.44
UCLA - 1.29

Last 4 games:

Michigan - 1.05
Oregon - 1.15
Maryland - 1.25
Wisconsin - 1.19

Bit concerned why the downward trajectory?
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Under 31% 3-point shooting in all those games.

Which would typically be fine. But outside the Oregon game (funny that's the one of the four we cruised) we've played to a near standstill on the glass.

Simply put, we are not a good enough defensive team, transition team, or turnover creating time to miss shots AND not get more rebounds that our opponents Rebounding is our superpower and we need to be elite at it.
 
#635      
Calvin
RollChief said:
I can see it from both sides, I suppose. I think there's a lot of deserved frustration with recent losses...
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Very much where I'm at. This has been a good season, but to be a great season they can't play poorly in the conference and NCAA tournament. Schematic and roster, I give BU a ton of credit. Definitely some misses, but the hits outweigh them by quite a margin. The one criticism from my armchair position is how they don't seem hungry and rested or conditioned in the recent losses. I've no doubt they've trying hard, but to my eyes it shows in rebounding falling off, and some in defense too. They need their best gear in crunch time, and it's been hit or miss.

The potential is so high, it's hard to imagine them not making a run, but time will tell whether they've figured out how to get their intensity when it counts the most.
 
#636      
pruman91
I've been watching podcasts and you tubes all day long and gonna take a nap but my worthless prediction is...

Illini 90
frannies 69

be fun to see francon on the sidelines again...............it really really will be...................
 
#637      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Tennessee - 1.26
Ohio State - 1.27
Nebraska - 1.28
Missouri - 1.43
Southern - 1.39
Penn State - 1.10
Rutgers - 1.27
Iowa - 1.15
Northwestern - 1.30
Minnesota - 1.26
Maryland - 1.32
Purdue - 1.39
Washington - 1.22
Nebraska - 1.23
Northwestern - 1.30
Michigan State - 1.15
Wisconsin - 1.22
Indiana - 1.26
USC - 1.44
UCLA - 1.29

Last 4 games:

Michigan - 1.05
Oregon - 1.15
Maryland - 1.25
Wisconsin - 1.19

Bit concerned why the downward trajectory? Overall, extremely impressive and historic.
Click to expand...
What’s disappointing to me is we lost the Nebraska and UCLA games despite 1.28 and 1.29. Especially UCLA since it was in February - and such poor execution by us on the final play.

Usually with that kind of offensive output, you’re almost destined to win.
 
#638      
wc_illini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
We’re still #1 in the nation in points per 100 possessions on the year:



YES, I’m aware Purdue jumped us in Kenpom, but leading the nation in points per possession is also quite an indicator.

Also, please take my word for it, we were 126.6 BEFORE the Michigan game — which is insanely good.

However, it’s in these last 4 games (Michigan / Oregon / Maryland / Wisconsin) that our offense has slumped, as we’ve only cracked 1.2ppp ONCE in that 4 game stretch (Maryland).

Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure we were over 1.2 in every game from UConn to UCLA — that’s 3 months — outside of the Michigan State game.

It’s why I think this Penn game is very important to get right as far as guys’ confidence, 3pt shooting, etc.

Also, just as P.S. — here’s where last year’s Duke team (which set the Kenpom record for highest offensive efficiency) ranked in points per 100 poss:



Here’s 2024 UConn:
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Got this data from https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois&year=2026:

1773858117900.png
 
#639      
Altuve27
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Under 31% 3-point shooting in all those games.

Which would typically be fine. But outside the Oregon game (funny that's the one of the four we cruised) we've played to a near standstill on the glass.

Simply put, we are not a good enough defensive team, transition team, or turnover creating time to miss shots AND not get more rebounds that our opponents Rebounding is our superpower and we need to be elite at it.
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Exactly GIF
 
#650      
jjv0004
Looking for some advice. Since I live in Greenville I thought about going to the games but I am too old to go to a 9:30PM game and get up to go in to the office by 6:30am. Thinking of taking my wife to the Saturday games which likely to be Duke/OSU and Illinois/Carolina.

Would I have the best shot to get the cheapest tickets if I search 1-3 hours before game time? I don't ever attend anything other than concerts and we buy those tickets way in advance.

Thanks!
 
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