NCAA Tournament Bracket

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#255      
ironhand
I predict no one's bracket will be perfect after the first two rounds.
 
#256      
alaskaillini
Here's my last iteration of probabilities derived from FanDuel futures (odds taken from just before the first game).

Changes I notice:
- our odds improved slightly up through reaching the NC Game, but dipped for winning it all
- Arizona and Michigan are pulling away from Duke and (especially) Florida
- Michigan St's odds improved some, and so did Vandy's (but not as much)

Edit: my two brackets in the Loyalty Challenge used last nights' odds to randomly pick winners for each game, except with Illinois winning it all

View attachment 48427
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Odds for a S16 look really good for us. The Loyola year, I believe we were only about 65% according to Torvik (that wasn't as big an upset as everyone thought it).
A 1 in 5 chance at a Final Four is pretty good.
Just for grins I looked up Izzo's last 10 years (9 tourneys due to Covid). In those 9 tournaments MSU had seeds of 2, 9, 3, 2, 11, 7, 7, 9, and 2. He managed to make it to 2 Sweet Sixteens despite having 9 chances including three 2 seeds and a 3 seed. He has been one of the more successful NCAA coaches, which just proves it is hard to advance in March.
 
#257      
21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt said:
UNI is my dark horse.

Anytime I look at these 12, 13, 14 seed upsets, I already know the higher seed is going to have better overall metrics. What I look for is the one or two things stylistically that the underdog does well that the favorite has struggled with a little bit. And from there I just use my imagination lol.

For UNI, since Feb 1, they've been 14th in 3p% and 11th in 2p%. St. John's D has been pretty stout during that time but for me, it's about whether I can visualize UNI stretching the floor and getting hot from three and I think they've shown they can do that.

Defensively, UNI gives up a lot of threes. Not a problem because St. John's is 303rd in 3p rate and 338 in 3p% since Feb 1.

And then tempo. This is the big one. Can UNI control the tempo? They are one of the slowest tempo teams in the country and St. John's is one of the faster tempos in the country. How will St. John's respond if UNI grinds the game to a halt, takes care of the ball, and executes enough to get open threes?
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Then again, I felt really good about VCU and St. Mary's so maybe don't listen to anything I say.
 
#259      
skyIdub
Guess who’s got SLU over scUM in the second round!!????

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(I’m hypothetical John Krazinski in this instance)
 
#264      
wc_illini
The odds of day 1 playing out the way it did were about 0.1%. The odds of all the favorites winning were about 2.1%.

High Point (14%) was the only really unlikely upset- the next unlikeliest was Texas A&M (42%).
 
#265      
Piotyr
Only 4 double digit seeds won their first round game this year: 10 Texas A&M, 11 Texas, 11 VCU and 12 High Point.

Last year, the chalkiest season on record, 5 double digit seeds won in the first round.
 
#266      
wc_illini
The odds of the first round playing out the way it did were about 0.003%. The odds of all the favorites winning were about 0.06%.

High point remained the only remotely unlikely upset (odds from FanDuel Thursday morning):

1774071628490.png
 
#267      
wc_illini
Here are updated odds for the remaining rounds based on FanDuel futures from a little while after tonight's games finished (sorted by seed then odds to win it all)

Of the top 4-5 seeds, Arkansas got by far the biggest gift of the tournament with High Point taking down Wisconsin. We benefited some also (S16 odds went up from 80% to 86%).

Iowa State's odds decreased due to injury questions (S16 odds went down from 77% to 64%).

(edit: they're giving Duke a lower chance to win it all than other sportsbooks)

1774074115623.png
 
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#269      
grue2
ironhand said:
I predict no one's bracket will be perfect after the first two rounds.
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There are 8 perfect brackets in the big CBS challenge after round 1. There were no perfect brackets in the Loyalty bracket that I'm running after day 1. One person did get everything except Wisconsin/HighPoint right.
 
#270      
PepeSilvia
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to stick up for Indiana basketball, and I do feel like they should have accepted a post season tournament invitation, but the situations were slightly different.

Nebraska had the core of their team returning. Whereas Indiana loses Wilkerson, Devries, Conerway, Alexis, Bailey, and Enright, which is 5 of their top 6 in minutes. So they have a full rebuild in front of them. Probably figure time is better spent getting started on the portal than practicing with a group of guys that won’t be around next year.
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I get the whole needing to rebuild part but it's wild to me that Darian wouldn't want to coach Tucker for a few more games and potentially go out with a win(either in the Crown or NIT).

I mean Wilkerson and Devries will probably play professionally somewhere but the other guys you think would be down to play a few more games. Plus if you win the crown the players share 300k(figure 20k each for a 15 player roster).

Id imagine the team would get up for potentially getting an addition 20k and a weekend in Vegas just to win 3 games.

But the Darian/Tucker part is still the crazy part to me. I played for my dad in high school and especially now as I get older and I'm aware he's not going to be around forever I would give a ton to have played 3 more games with him and the chance to go out with a win. I get that they were disappointed and the rest of the team may have not wanted to play(Do the players vote for it? Or is it the coaches?) but Wilkerson seems like the type of guy that would have played and the 4 other seniors I would assume want to play a few more games in their career.
 
#271      
Piotyr
Round 2 chances of upset from biggest to smallest:
57% - 5 St. John's over 4 Kansas
55% - 5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska
54% - 5 Texas Tech over 4 Alabama
54% - 6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia
46% - 6 Louisville over 3 Michigan State
35% - 7 UCLA over 2 Uconn
29% - 11 Texas over 3 Gonzaga
23% - 7 Miami FL over 2 Purdue
22% - 7 Kentucky over 2 Iowa State
21% - 9 Iowa over 1 Florida
18% - 10 Texas A&M over 2 Houston
17% - 11 VCU over 3 Illinois
16% - 9 Utah State over 1 Arizona
15% - 12 High Point over 4 Arkansas
14% - 9 Saint Louis over 1 Michigan
11% - 11 TCU over 1 Duke
 
#273      
Fly Illini Fly!
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
How does this get calculated?

Illinois on the season has scored 2700 points

1984 field goal attempts

422 offensive rebounds

284 turnovers

653 FT attempts

That should have us at 125.2 not 126.1
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Your stats are false, fake, and fraud.

Here’s where it stands as of today:

IMG_0547.jpeg


Illinois:

2058 FGA
442 OREB
287 TOV
674 FTA
2805 points

That would put us at:

IMG_0548.jpeg


Purdue:

2159 FGA
410 OREB
322 TOV
611 FTA
2962 points

That would put them at:

IMG_0549.jpeg


Arkansas:

2254 FGA
387 OREB
316 TOV
811 FTA
3155 points

That would put them at:

IMG_0550.jpeg


Duke is 4th (though they’re listed as a tie for 3rd):

2045 FGA
440 OREB
366 TOV
771 FTA
2869 points

That would put them at:

IMG_0551.jpeg


FYI, formula for ppp:

(FGA - OREB) + TO + (0.475 * FTA)
 
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