VCU is hot right now. That’s really all. Honestly, they may be nothing. Maybe just a fear of mine.
NCAA Tournament Bracket
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Not to mention we’ve got the highest spread of any 3 seed as of today.
Really, no excuses to not make the S16 with this draw.
That being said, is Houston also makes it out of the opening weekend it’ll arguably the hardest 3/2 draw in the S16.
They are definitely the hottest team in the A-10. They are 11-1 since the beginning of February. Here's their games in that stretch (wins green, losses red):
@Fordham (#166 KP)
Dayton (#78)
@La Salle (#233)
@Richmon (#161)
George Washington (#85)
@Saint Louis (#41)
Fordham (#166)
George Mason (#102)
@Dayton (#78)
Duquesne (#128)
Saint Joseph's (#119)
Dayton (#78)
So yeah, 11-1 is great and all, but look at the opponents they were facing! I feel like we're having the Miami (OH) discussion again. With that schedule, we would have gone 12-0 playing poorly. In that stretch the best team VCU played was St. Louis, who is outside the top 40 in KP and would easily be our worst loss on the season (also, in that same Feb 1 to now stretch, Torvik has SLU as the #109 team in the country, so performing quite poorly at the time VCU faced them).
You do have a point in that Torvik has them as the #29 team in that time period. But Torvik also has us as the #5 team in the same time period.
That's why I'm not particularly worried about VCU. We *should* win that game, even in our recent run of form. Now, I get it, in a single elimination tournament anything can happen. Anything. We've seen 16-seeds beat 1-seeds. So maybe Michigan should fear their matchup with Howard, a team that is 12-1 since January 31 and has won 9 straight.
Illini2010-11
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When you look at the automatic qualifiers across the non-power conferences, almost all of them are coming into the tourney "blazing hot" with very long winning streak or on a last 10 of 9-1 or better. That should not come as a surprise, and after you look at who they play, it explains why they so very rarely upset power conference teams in the tourney even with extended win streaks coming into the tournament.
Power conference schools tend to cannibalize from within in February and March, but it makes them tougher come tourney time.
Indeed. Fanduel's odds to reach the S16:
1 Arizona 87.6%
2 Michigan 86.5%
3 Duke 83.4%
4 Florida 78.3%
5 Houston 76.8%
6 Illinois 76.1%
7 Iowa State 75.1%
8 Purdue 72.6%
9 Connecticut 64.2%
10 Gonzaga 62.0%
11 Michigan State 61.7%
12 Arkansas 56.1%
13 Vanderbilt 52.2%
14 Virginia 52.2%
And there's the Mikel Brown news...
Illini2010-11
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How often does the #1 player in the field have his team eliminated in the round of 64? I see the BYU/Texas game as close to a coin flip.
ESPN:
Ranking the top 50 men's college basketball players in March Madness
From mid-major leaders to national superstars, here's who could impact their teams' NCAA tournament runs.
5. Keaton Wagler
Wagler is one of the season's best stories, exiting high school as an under-the-radar recruit before transforming himself into an All-American and projected NBA draft lottery pick in only one season. The star freshman has had some of the best individual performances of any player in college basketball this season, including his 46-point outing at Purdue. Averaging 17.9 points and 4.4 assists this season, Wagler needs to regain some momentum in the tournament -- he hasn't shot 50% from the field in a game since Feb. 10. -- BorzelloI'm really struggling to see the Duke vision with these injuries. The problem is UCONN looks like the weakest 2 at the moment, and while MSU is tough do they really have the offense needed to make the final four?
I agree with what you're saying and I also keep asking myself, can ILL really keep it together long enough for the final 4? Obviously, we all hope so, but I'm so tired of the heart break! lol
Looking for some advice. Since I live in Greenville I thought about going to the games but I am too old to got to a 9:30 game here when I get up and in to the office by 6:30am. Thinking of taking my wife to the Saturday games which likely to be Duke/OSU and Illinois/Carolina.
Would I have the best shot to get the cheapest tickets if I search 1-3 hours before game time? I don't ever attend anything other than concerts and we buy those tickets way in advance.
Thanks!
Would I have the best shot to get the cheapest tickets if I search 1-3 hours before game time? I don't ever attend anything other than concerts and we buy those tickets way in advance.
Thanks!
I appreciate this. Thanks!
Izzo has certainly done more with less in the past. Last year, they made an Elite 8 with an offense ranked 25th. In 2010, he made it to the Final Four with the 33rd ranked offense.
Not including COVID, the last time he missed the tournament was his first year at MSU, 1997. Say what you will about the guy (and I will say it) but if my counting is right, in that time frame, he's made it to 16 Sweet 16's, 10 Elite 8's, and 8 Final Fours. That's a 57% hit rate on making a Sweet 16 since the guy took over at MSU.
No doubt. They’re a 3-seed. I’d be a fool to be stunned. Plus it looks like they again ended up with quite a nice draw.
But last year they were also 4th on defense, and that’s dipped a bit.
They’d be playing Duke in the elite 8, but I think I’d take MSU over UConn right now.
St Mary or TAMU who has a better chance to beat Houston? Really not a big believer in mid majors.
We've all been staring at enough numbers. This deserves a chart, and I can show the other rounds also. The probabilities are still based on Fanduel futures, and I've sorted it by seed, then by S16 odds
I’m almost certain you are a statistician.
St. Mary's has a chance to be Houston
I suppose they could change their name
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