2 on FDU would give our team this year fits lol.
NCAA Tournament Bracket
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2 on FDU would give our team this year fits lol.
Ken Pomeroy ran his typical NCAA tourney projections based on his ratings: https://kenpom.substack.com/p/the-2026-ncaa-tournament-odds
Based on that, odds of a first round upset, from best to worst:
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson 57.1%
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova 51.9%
10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky 44.7%
9 Saint Louis over 8 Georgia 44.2%
11 VCU over 6 North Carolina 41.0%
11 NC State/Texas over 6 BYU 40.2%
10 Texas A&M over 7 Saint Mary's 39.3%
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State 38.9%
10 Missouri over 7 Miami FL 37.5%
10 UCF over 7 UCLA 34.4%
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville 27.6%
11 SMU/Miami OH over 6 Tennessee 26.9%
12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech 21.9%
12 Northern Iowa over 5 St. John's 20.2%
12 McNeese over 5 Vanderbilt 17.8%
12 High Point over 5 Wisconsin 16.8%
13 Hofstra over 4 Alabama 15.1%
13 Cal Baptist over 4 Kansas 13.3%
13 Hawaii over 4 Arkansas 9.3%
14 North Dakota State over 3 Michigan State 8.4%
13 Troy over 4 Nebraska 7.5%
14 Wright State over 3 Virginia 7.0%
15 Furman over 2 UConn 4.2%
14 Kennesaw State over 3 Gonzaga 3.7%
15 Idaho over 2 Houston 3.1%
14 Penn over 3 Illinois 3.0%
15 Queens over 2 Purdue 2.4%
15 Tennessee State over 2 Iowa State 1.6%
16 Siena over 1 Duke 0.9%
16 UMBC/Howard over 1 Michigan 0.6%
16 LIU over 1 Arizona 0.4%
16 Lehigh/Prairie View over 1 Florida 0.2%
Based on that, odds of a first round upset, from best to worst:
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson 57.1%
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova 51.9%
10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky 44.7%
9 Saint Louis over 8 Georgia 44.2%
11 VCU over 6 North Carolina 41.0%
11 NC State/Texas over 6 BYU 40.2%
10 Texas A&M over 7 Saint Mary's 39.3%
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State 38.9%
10 Missouri over 7 Miami FL 37.5%
10 UCF over 7 UCLA 34.4%
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville 27.6%
11 SMU/Miami OH over 6 Tennessee 26.9%
12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech 21.9%
12 Northern Iowa over 5 St. John's 20.2%
12 McNeese over 5 Vanderbilt 17.8%
12 High Point over 5 Wisconsin 16.8%
13 Hofstra over 4 Alabama 15.1%
13 Cal Baptist over 4 Kansas 13.3%
13 Hawaii over 4 Arkansas 9.3%
14 North Dakota State over 3 Michigan State 8.4%
13 Troy over 4 Nebraska 7.5%
14 Wright State over 3 Virginia 7.0%
15 Furman over 2 UConn 4.2%
14 Kennesaw State over 3 Gonzaga 3.7%
15 Idaho over 2 Houston 3.1%
14 Penn over 3 Illinois 3.0%
15 Queens over 2 Purdue 2.4%
15 Tennessee State over 2 Iowa State 1.6%
16 Siena over 1 Duke 0.9%
16 UMBC/Howard over 1 Michigan 0.6%
16 LIU over 1 Arizona 0.4%
16 Lehigh/Prairie View over 1 Florida 0.2%
it’s an obviously elite accomplishment, people who crap on stuff like that are front of the line in the bet-you’re-fun-at-parties club
What do the numbers mean?
- 13-16 seeds are weaker than usual this year, and 1-4 seeds are mostly stronger than usual this year. Alabama and Kansas are effectively the most vulnerable in the group. I found it hilarious that field of 68 picked 3 of 4 4 seeds to be upset but didn't go with Kansas. Kansas is the black sheep of the 4 seed group.
- There is a 58% chance all the top 4 seeds win.
- None of the 5 seeds are particularly vulnerable either, mostly because the best 12 seed got the best 5 seed and so on down. If Anderson can't go for Texas Tech, that's probably the best bet for an upset.
- Once you get past the top 5 seeds, now there are realistic upsets. Primarily the VCU over UNC and Texas/NC State winner over BYU
- Even the 7 seeds are unusually strong compared to the 10 seeds (mostly because a couple of the 10 seeds should have been 11s and Texas/VCU/NC State should be 10s)
- The coin flip 8-9 games are mostly coinflips. Ohio State has the best profile of any of those teams.
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Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
IMO nope, Vegas just makes money by sitting in the middle of bets and skimming a couple percentages.
Sure we have a big rabid fan base but so do other team.
Money says we have about a 5% chance of winning a Natty, that ain't bad.
Can we roll a 3 with 2 dice?
OT: 0-4
Within one possession (3pts) in the last minute:
- 3 Wins: Texas Tech, Purdue, Maryland
- 6 Losses: Alabama, Nebraska, MSU, Wisc, UCLA, Wisc
Within two possessions (6pts) in last 2 minutes:
- 5 Wins: OSU, Iowa (plus the above)
- 6 Losses (the above)
Within two possessions in last 5 minutes:
- 8 Wins: Tennessee, NW, Minnesota (plus the above)
- 6 Losses (the above)
We've generally been quite a bit worse in the second half than the first, and obviously haven't done well in OT, so hopefully that's fatigue and not conditioning, since this time off would help with the former. But we've actually been ok in the last 5 minutes of close games.
Yeah, I'm more concerned about coughing up huge leads
Luckily for us, they don't make too many tournaments
Beat none of them - Not exactly true?
The won AT FLORIDA, among many other big time wins.
It says 'Beat a couple of them'
Okay? I said “barring Houston losing to Saint Mary’s”
That does not translate to “I think Saint Mary’s can beat Houston.”
It means barring x happening, y opinion.
I can say the same thing about Ohio State:
Barring 16 seed Siena beating Duke, I don’t see the Buckeyes advancing past the second round. Does that mean I think Sienna will win?
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Well no, “can” and “will” are not equivalent so of course not (see bolded above)
Future odds work different. You are betting Illinois at +2200, that's the bet. There is only one winner and Vegas collects on the other 67 teams wagers. Our rabid and huge alum fan base will bet this line. I think it's too low.
I don't get all the Houston love. They are good, but nothing like they have been in past years. They are similar to us in that they beat all the teams that were not ranked, but they are not like us in that they lost to Tennessee and Texas Tech and they also have not beat one team ranked above 14 in the ap top 25 the entire year. They lost to every team they played that was in the top 10.
They for sure aren't the same level of elite defense in the past. Have sacrificed elite, elite defense for more offense and still very good defense.
Interesting case study this tournament for me as well. And good find on the bolded part
I don’t think it’s love, just that we have to play them at target center. Which indeed does suck.
Okay, I don’t think Sienna can beat Duke. Major newsflash.
Not really referring to this board. A lot of guys acting like they are winning the whole thing. They have shown at no time all year that they are capable of doing that. At least we beat a couple teams ranked in the top 10 this year. Another thing is that Florida hasnt beaten a team in the top 10 either other than Vandy, who was at 10 at the time lol.
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We weren't even talking about Sienna or Duke
You said S16 was the ceiling unless St Mary's takes out Houston, as in St Mary's could beat them and Illinois can't
I agree Houston in Houston is tough, but I will give us a chance
Roy was always one of my favorite Pacers
I agree that dumb money (either from rabid fanbases or national interest or whatever reason) can pad the odds, especially with futures. But I don't think Illinois is an outlier.
At Fanduel, the implied odds for all the teams in our pod to reach the sweet 16 add up to 104.1% (the extra 4.1% is the margin for the book). Other pods range from 103.5-108.4%, so we're near the low end. For the E8, our group is 110% compared to a range of 106.8-111.6%, and we're the lowest of the 2/3-seed groups.
We shouldn't be afraid of them, but the gap between them and us in Torvik is greater when just looking at games against Q1A. Like us, their rating is partly built on close losses rather than a winning record (they're 5-6, we're 5-7)
We weren't even talking about Sienna or Duke
You said S16 was the ceiling unless St Mary's takes out Houston, as in St Mary's could beat them and Illinois can't
I agree Houston in Houston is tough, but I will give us a chance
MadtownIllin
- Madison, WI
Just re-watched the January Purdont game.. really would love to see that Illini team the rest of the year.
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