NCAA Tournament Bracket

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#176      
wc_illini
AnnaMay said:
Not really referring to this board. A lot of guys acting like they are winning the whole thing. They have shown at no time all year that they are capable of doing that. At least we beat a couple teams ranked in the top 10 this year. Another thing is that Florida hasnt beaten a team in the top 10 either other than Vandy, who was at 10 at the time lol.
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Based on current metrics, Purdue is our top-10 win. After that, it's Nebraska (#14 KP, #20 Torvik), Tennessee (#16 KP and TVK), and Texas Tech (#20 KP, #12 TVK)

Florida is "just" ranked 5th against Q1A (Purdue is ahead), but I get the appeal since their three top-10 losses were in the first ~month, and in addition to beating Vandy (#12 KP, #10 TVK), they absolutely throttled their three #15-20 SEC opponents

I'd feel a lot better about both Houston and FL if we performed as expected against top teams, but we haven't
 
#177      
Illinicpa14
If you could guarantee the Illini made the S16 but lost to Houston close, would you hit that button?

Same question at E8?
 
#180      
Illinicpa14
March2TheArch said:
Hell no to either proposition given how easy our first weekend draw is.

We have been overwhelming odds to make the Sweet 16. So why would I pay the price of a pre-F4 loss to earn a second weekend berth.

I-L-L
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Love this! I’m the same but was a thread in my groups text.

I think we all would take the F4 button right now
 
#181      
wc_illini
Illinicpa14 said:
If you could guarantee the Illini made the S16 but lost to Houston close, would you hit that button?

Same question at E8?
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I don't think I would

We have ~76% odds to reach the S16 and ~37% odds of reaching the E8, so I already see that as giving up more than we'd be gaining.

Plus, we have ~18.5% odds to reach the FF, ~8.5% to reach the NCG, and ~4% to win it all. I have no idea what are odds are of having an elite team in future years, so I want to keep this team's chances alive.

edit: just saw you asked about E8 also. That's where it starts to get more rational to hit the button (guaranteeing something we have a 37% chance of to give up something we only have an 18% chance of), but I'd still take the chance at a deeper run. Maybe guaranteeing a close loss in the FF would get me to hit that button. This may sound crazy, but I'd rather lose in the FF than the championship game. I've had too many title game losses (some epic ones too) across all my teams (incl pro) to go through that again.
 
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#184      
Fighter of the Nightman
FWIW, Houston is #5 in KenPom, and we are #7. And these are wins vs. top 25 KenPom teams...

W 88-82 at #8 Purdue
W 78-69 at #14 Nebraska
W 75-62 vs. #16 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa

... and these are Houston's.

W 94-85 vs. #15 Arkansas (Newark, NJ)
W 69-65 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 69-47 vs. #21 Kansas (B12T in Kansas City, MO)
W 77-66 at #23 BYU
W 73-66 vs. #23 BYU (B12T in Kansas City, MO)

So, pretty darn comparable and if anything the edge to us. We obviously need to take care of business to even get the CHANCE to play Houston, but I do feel a lot of people are giving too much mystique to Houston simply because the Big XII is so good ... because the Big Ten might not be AS good, but it is still really good. Houston has some close losses to good teams, but ... we know all about that.

In short, I am fully convinced that this is a draw where we control our own destiny ... there is no 2024 UConn waiting for us in the Elite Eight. Whether or not we can sustain a necessarily high level of play for that many games in a row is of course up for discussion, but I feel good!!
 
#185      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I do feel a lot of people are giving too much mystique to Houston simply because the Big XII is so good ... because the Big Ten might not be AS good, but it is still really good.
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Again, if the game were being played in Pittsburgh or whatever, I don’t think you’d be seeing a single comment giving “too much mystique.”

It’s just different when it’s essentially a road game. Location is the reason for the comments 10x more than anything to do with Houston (and personally, I understand the concern).
 
#186      
wc_illini
Fighter of the Nightman said:
FWIW, Houston is #5 in KenPom, and we are #7. And these are wins vs. top 25 KenPom teams...

W 88-82 at #8 Purdue
W 78-69 at #14 Nebraska
W 75-62 vs. #16 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa

... and these are Houston's.

W 94-85 vs. #15 Arkansas (Newark, NJ)
W 69-65 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 69-47 vs. #21 Kansas (B12T in Kansas City, MO)
W 77-66 at #23 BYU
W 73-66 vs. #23 BYU (B12T in Kansas City, MO)

So, pretty darn comparable and if anything the edge to us. We obviously need to take care of business to even get the CHANCE to play Houston, but I do feel a lot of people are giving too much mystique to Houston simply because the Big XII is so good ... because the Big Ten might not be AS good, but it is still really good. Houston has some close losses to good teams, but ... we know all about that.

In short, I am fully convinced that this is a draw where we control our own destiny ... there is no 2024 UConn waiting for us in the Elite Eight. Whether or not we can sustain a necessarily high level of play for that many games in a row is of course up for discussion, but I feel good!!
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I agree. Torvik has OSU #23, so we're 6-6 against the Torvik top-25, while Houston is 5-6. They're still ranked ahead of us vs top 25, but it's close:

Rank:
Houston: #7
Illinois: #9

Winning %:
Houston: 0.9617
Illinois: 0.9553

AdjO/D (net):
Houston: 129.7/98.0 (+31.7)
Illinois: 130.8/100.2 (+30.6)

Their defense is surprisingly average against top teams, and their offense is surprisingly good.
 
#187      
RockfordIllini
Fighter of the Nightman said:
FWIW, Houston is #5 in KenPom, and we are #7. And these are wins vs. top 25 KenPom teams...

W 88-82 at #8 Purdue
W 78-69 at #14 Nebraska
W 75-62 vs. #16 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-69 at #25 Iowa

... and these are Houston's.

W 94-85 vs. #15 Arkansas (Newark, NJ)
W 69-65 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 69-47 vs. #21 Kansas (B12T in Kansas City, MO)
W 77-66 at #23 BYU
W 73-66 vs. #23 BYU (B12T in Kansas City, MO)

So, pretty darn comparable and if anything the edge to us. We obviously need to take care of business to even get the CHANCE to play Houston, but I do feel a lot of people are giving too much mystique to Houston simply because the Big XII is so good ... because the Big Ten might not be AS good, but it is still really good. Houston has some close losses to good teams, but ... we know all about that.

In short, I am fully convinced that this is a draw where we control our own destiny ... there is no 2024 UConn waiting for us in the Elite Eight. Whether or not we can sustain a necessarily high level of play for that many games in a row is of course up for discussion, but I feel good!!
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Fully agree. If we wind up facing Houston I actually like the matchup. Sending 2 to the ball has been death against us all year with the way we pass. Plus we will have a pretty decent size advantage on Houston which allows us to see over the top and create angles for passing more easily. I’m actually more concerned about stopping their guards than scoring. And I think Florida is by far the most gettable of the one seeds.

Have to get to the second weekend which is far from a guarantee, but we’ve played our worst stretch of ball all year and are still barely losing to quality teams, and in fact have had second half leads in 4 of 5 losses, including some fairly substantial leads. Almost feels like a boredom/mental letdown/physical mental fatigue type of situation similar to what folks are saying about Purdue after they managed to win the BTT. We regain our form we can beat anyone. But even if we can just find a way to play about 10% better we can go on a run.
 
#189      
wc_illini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Again, if the game were being played in Pittsburgh or whatever, I don’t think you’d be seeing a single comment giving “too much mystique.”

It’s just different when it’s essentially a road game. Location is the reason for the comments 10x more than anything to do with Houston (and personally, I understand the concern).
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True home court advantage is something like 3.5 points. A home-city advantage is said to be a bit less, say 2 points. That certainly is a bummer, but it doesn't make the game anything close to a long shot
 
#190      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
NarrowJ said:
We weren't even talking about Sienna or Duke

You said S16 was the ceiling unless St Mary's takes out Houston, as in St Mary's could beat them and Illinois can't

I agree Houston in Houston is tough, but I will give us a chance (y)
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I legitimately never said this (and I’m sure you know that). I said unless St Mary’s beats Houston (which I don’t think will happen), Illinois won’t get past the sweet sixteen.

Fine, regardless, I’ll say it here clearly and explicitly:

I don’t think either Illinois or St Mary’s can beat Houston.

St Mary’s does not have the athletes to keep up and have small guards who will get eaten alive by Houston’s pressure defense.

Illinois might have the offensive firepower, but got screwed by the committee on the location.

Not everything needs to be such an “you said, I said” argument. The point is the point.
 
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#191      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Again, if the game were being played in Pittsburgh or whatever, I don’t think you’d be seeing a single comment giving “too much mystique.”

It’s just different when it’s essentially a road game. Location is the reason for the comments 10x more than anything to do with Houston (and personally, I understand the concern).
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True home court advantage is something like 3.5 points. A home-city advantage is said to be a bit less, say 2 points. That certainly is a bummer, but it doesn't make the game anything close to a long shot
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Also, KenPom claims "Home-court advantage is largely derived from officiating biases." I assume this is from fan hysteria. In typical road games, there would be very few Illini fans there, but we would be fairly well represented in Houston.
 
#193      
NarrowJ
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
I legitimately never said this (and I’m sure you know that). I said unless St Mary’s beats Houston (which I don’t think will happen), Illinois won’t get past the sweet sixteen.

Fine, regardless, I’ll say it here clearly and explicitly:

I don’t think either Illinois or St Mary’s can beat Houston.

St Mary’s does not have the athletes to keep up and have small guards who will get eaten alive by Houston’s pressure defense.

Illinois might have the offensive firepower, but got screwed by the committee on the location.

Not everything needs to be such an “you said, I said” argument. The point is the point.
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I think either of them CAN beat Houston

I’d give St Marys roughly a 20 percent chance and Illinois roughly a 40 percent chance
 
#197      
WizardBill
IlliniFan42 said:
For those still wondering about everybody's favorite bubble team-

www.thedailyhoosier.com

IU men’s basketball officially misses NCAA Tournament, will decline other postseason opportunities

Indiana men’s basketball has officially concluded its 2025-26 season. IU failed to earn an NCAA Tournament bid in Darian DeVries’ first season at the helm. That’s now confirmed af…
www.thedailyhoosier.com www.thedailyhoosier.com
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Here is a quote from the comments:

"Glad someone is counting the days until next season. We count days. Talent counts cash. We count days...Coaches count cash....We count days....ADs count cash....We count days... Funeral directors count cash 'cause we all getting old and won't count much longer. lol. I've counted days for a quality Hoosier coach for so long I need to suck some blue blood blood and live eternal as Count Hoopula. I've lived long enough to see mathematicians taking over March Madness selections. Lestats in my basketball would be a nice change. Booooooo! Wake me from the immortal portal resting chamber in 335 years (now with Wi-Die Wi-Fi! ...Sorry, no 'Cloud' storage) when we make an Elite 8....I'll be counting in my sleep."

Here is my comment:

"I am sorry, IU is NOT a blue blood. Maybe they were in the past. The past is dusty. The past is a long time ago. IU has not even made the tourney in 8 of the last 10 years. The last time I considered them a "Blue Blood" (honestly was never) was when Bobby Knight was at the helm and throwing chairs. Since he left, not a chance. That was in 2000. They have not won since then.
 
#198      
Huggies5
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And Indiana didn't even make the tournament. LOL!
 
#200      
the juiceman cometh
TheChief4Life said:
That’s the matchup (VCU vs Illinois) that scares me the most, and I don’t feel like it’s getting talked about enough.
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What specifically about them concerns you?

Efficiency-wise the closest team we've played to VCU this season was Indiana (very similar in overall ranking, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency). We won by 20. The next closest team is Mizzou. We won by 43.

Edit - This got me thinking about the question of what kind of teams BU loses to in the Tournament. The thing is, for all the talk about Brad's failings in March, he doesn't lose to bad teams. Here are the final KP rankings of the teams he's lost to each year:

2025: Kentucky - #16 (ours #17)
2024: UConn - #1 (ours #10)
2023: Arkansas - #23 (ours #35)
2022: Houston - #2 (ours #20)
2021: Loyola - #10 (ours #4)

Every single year it took a top-25 team to knock us out, 4/5 years a #16 team (i.e. a team that would expect to make the S16), and 3/5 years it took a top 10 team to knock us out.

The only one where we ended up higher than the team that beat us was 2021, and that was still a top 10 team.

There's been a lot of talk of the tournament prowess of Nate Oats. Here's the best teams he beat on his runs to the Final Four and Elite Eight:

2025 (Elite Eight) - Saint Mary's (#25)
2024 (Final Four) - UNC (#9)

I mean, those are pretty good, and that UNC win was good. But what was the best team BU beat on his 2024 Elite Eight run? #8 Iowa State. So just as good a victory, if not a little better. But also think about that. As a 4-seed Alabama got a vastly overrated 1-seed in the Sweet Sixteen, and we as a 3-seed got arguably a tougher opponent. Then in the next round, Alabama lucked out and got to face 6-seed and #19 KP Clemson in the Elite Eight, while we had eventual champion UConn (who also comfortably beat Alabama in the Final Four).

I think in the Tournament the Champion is the Champion. Every other team's destiny depends in equal parts on how the rest of the draw unfolds and on their own performance.
 
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