Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#1,278      
HensonHall71
skyIdub said:
Ok ok ok, I know, but just humor us….how big a bag gets thrown at Wagler if he wants to run it back?
I mean, he’s gotta be the #1 pick in ‘27. That has a coolness to it too?

It’s not going to happen but holy shiite Muslim if he announces that!!🤣
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It's a good question - for example the 8th pick in this years draft will make $5.7M in the first year and ~23M over 4 years. The 6th pick will make $6.8M and ~ 29M over 4 years. The #2 pick in next years draft will make about $11M and $48M over their 4 year contract.

So, if you come back - make ~$6M this year (to make this year cost neutral) and get drafted #2 next year and make $20-25M more over your 4 year rookie deal, that starts to make some financial sense. You are delaying your second contract by a year and theoretically have one less year in the league if you think you will be done at a certain age (say age 35), but you have to discount that last year of salary you are giving up by 15 years.

The old thinking that if you are a lottery pick you definitely should go would normally hold true and there is risk of injury or poor play hurting your stock. But the money is so big now in NIL and the rookie wage scale is going up every year - and next year's class is significantly weaker than this historic class of freshman, you could make a financial argument for Keaton to stay
 
#1,279      
Mobi
Indy Illini Fan said:
As crazy as it sounds … It’s not really about the money with Keaton … Never has been …

Kid just loves playing ball … Loves to compete …

Now he ain’t coming back for $250,000 but you catch my drift … I don’t think he’d be coming back and demanding like $8 million …

And I think he’s going pro and he should go pro …
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This season must have been a whirlwind for the Wagler family. Even though it is clear Keaton is a top NBA pick, they might not be ready mentally considering they were not prepared for that before the season. They probably just need more time to consider the pro and con. End of the day it should be the league. I trust our staff will assist them with their best benefits in mind. We have already sent four players to the league in Brad's tenure.
 
#1,280      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
I thought last spring the insiders said Andrej was the guy the staff waited forever and ever for him to enter the portal, because he was priority 1A

Could be misremembering that, idk
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The insider that was all over our pursuit of Andrej was LVille (among others, but him especially):

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Dame Sarr committed to Duke on May 22nd. However, Illinois moving on was confirmed by mid-April:

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Stojakovic officially in the portal:

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The insider reporting here is ELITE lol.
 
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#1,283      
RimPressure
Indy Illini Fan said:
Today would be a great day to free up some $$ and roster spots so we can go reload … 😎
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Well that seems a bit ominous if there’s significant money leaving aside from perhaps Petrovic, but again, we’ll be fine. I also appreciate what might be an attempt to prep us a bit 🤣🤣.
 
#1,285      
HailtotheChief
I wonder if any of these young players have girl friends attending the U of I that the guys hate to leave? I doubt it but i know for some that can factor in. Clearly Jake is available! Lol
 
#1,287      
Trueblue777
Illini-Rule said:
First off, Im not saying that I believe this.

I heard from someone with supposed ties to KW's family, that his parents really want him getting a degree and that he's staying in college. I just found it interesting.
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The Wagler’s are quality people and want the best for their children. The decision will be based 100% what’s best for Keaton now and in the long run.
 
#1,289      
STLini25
Full octane pay for play was 100% legalized in college sports the day the original NIL rule got put in place and anyone who spends a second thinking about or trying to put that genie back in the bottle is wasting their time
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That’s not true. The NIL deals have to pass the clearinghouse like the OP said and there tons of NIL deals denied, partially denied and/or arbitrated between the player and clearinghouse.
 
#1,292      
Calvin
Indy Illini Fan said:
And I think he’s going pro and he should go pro …
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Seems crazy to think otherwise. The risk/return just doesn't seem to be close.
First two years at 7th pick is over $12 mil, and you could imagine scenarios where his draft stock drops if he doesn't go now.
That said, I'm not looking at it as a freshman in college with the kinds of life experiences and basketball passion KW has. Either way, he'll get a life-changing bag.
 
#1,293      
PeoriaIllini03
Curbelo Fanboy said:
In the ideal world he'd play one more year in college in order to be a more complete player. Especially in strength/ability to play thru contact at the rim. But as we all know, the NBA drafts on potential & not on the finished product. 40 years ago a kid with his build would have been chewed up & spit out of the NBA at such a young age. He would have stayed in school, gotten bigger & come out a grown man ready for the league.
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I don't necessarily disagree with this, but also injuries are a real risk. See Jacob Toppin.

If you're a lottery pick, get the secured bag. Never know what could happen.
 
#1,295      
RollChief
Before the fun starts, I wanted to create a "retention cheat sheet", as this has been a stat of emphasis since NIL/portaling began in 2021.

Below is the cheat sheet, which shows how much percentage minutes retaining each player adds, a few scenarios that I am taking a total guess as most likely based on information from the board over the past few days, and a reference for "Champion level" percentages for retention:

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#1,296      
Bbuck21
HensonHall71 said:
It's a good question - for example the 8th pick in this years draft will make $5.7M in the first year and ~23M over 4 years. The 6th pick will make $6.8M and ~ 29M over 4 years. The #2 pick in next years draft will make about $11M and $48M over their 4 year contract.

So, if you come back - make ~$6M this year (to make this year cost neutral) and get drafted #2 next year and make $20-25M more over your 4 year rookie deal, that starts to make some financial sense. You are delaying your second contract by a year and theoretically have one less year in the league if you think you will be done at a certain age (say age 35), but you have to discount that last year of salary you are giving up by 15 years.

The old thinking that if you are a lottery pick you definitely should go would normally hold true and there is risk of injury or poor play hurting your stock. But the money is so big now in NIL and the rookie wage scale is going up every year - and next year's class is significantly weaker than this historic class of freshman, you could make a financial argument for Keaton to stay
Click to expand...
This is a reasonable assessment
 
#1,297      
joeybcrazy13
As crazy as it sounds … It’s not really about the money with Keaton … Never has been …

Kid just loves playing ball … Loves to compete …

Now he ain’t coming back for $250,000 but you catch my drift … I don’t think he’d be coming back and demanding like $8 million …

And I think he’s going pro and he should go pro
Click to expand...
Yet your not closing the door!!
 
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