On Blackwell, on the one hand I certainly understand the prestige of the brand and the likely deeper pockets. But Duke doesn’t really bring in transfers to be the guy. They are still very much of the bringing in and featuring one n done 5 star talent and portaling for veteran role players as needed. Think Grandison, Mason Gillis, Scion James, those types of players. They don’t really have a history of taking a transfer and elevating his game.
Now Duke may be pivoting this year because the incoming frosh class isn’t nearly as strong as it’s been in recent years. Looking at their incoming class, I don’t see a Flagg, a Boozer or a Knueppel, so maybe this is Scheyer acknowledging and pivoting to a more portal focused roster. But that feels like more of a gamble from Blackwell’s perspective because there’s no proof of concept. In fact, when Scheyer hasn’t had a transcendent, NPOY/top 3 lotto type talent, he’s merely done okay, finishing top 3ish in a very diluted ACC and getting 4 an 5 seeds in the tourney.
So long as the money is comparable I just think we have a better sell. Better conference, track record of success with transfers, track record of putting guards in the league. Plus we have a sentimental angle in that we are his old man’s alma mater.
All that said, would gladly take Blackwell but I hope we don’t overpay for him. We’ve seen time and time again the splashiest portal gets don’t always pan out (see Storr, AJ) and sometimes under the radar guys explode (who had Nick Boyd being the first badger since Michael Finley to average 20 ppg?). It’s as much about fit, culture and buying into a role as it is about overall talent. We need a lead guard and Blackwell is clearly the best of the bunch, but there are plenty of other big scoring guards who are or will be available. The staff has a really good track record of identifying fits with our roster and I trust them to find the right guy, even if it’s not Blackwell.