Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
I'm not sure he was efficient enough to get a LEED cert.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
I'm not sure he was efficient enough to get a LEED cert.
I really thought what I said was more clear, but apparently not since you read it so differently. I said nothing about where I think the current ream would rank (for the record, I'll go with the books and put us around 5th, so there's no need to assume I'm a doomer).
You referenced Jake in 2024/25 (or someone like him) as an example of a good 9th man, and I was saying "2024/25 shouldn't be our blueprint for this year because we were #20 in 2024/25, but we're aiming to be top 5 or top 1 this year." Of course that has more to do with the top 8 than whoever was 9th. But if there's a blueprint for this year, it should be Michigan, and they weren't afraid to bring in more talent than they could fit in an 8-man rotation (and it likely helped them weather Cason's injury).
So let me start over. We have four returning/transferring starters and two returning solid bench players. Coleman is the presumed 5th starter, though last year's top 20 freshman show there's some risk there (but the floor is likely a solid bench player, in which case Jake could start). Morillo presumably rounds out our top 8, but since half of last year's #20-30 freshman weren't good enough for an elite team's bench, there's clear risk with a #47 guy. One of Zens/Brown/LDavis might surprise, so that lowers the risk, but certainly doesn't eliminate it. I'd like to think we're better at evaluating talent than the rankings, so maybe I'm overly pessimistic to even consider that we might only get one high quality player out of those freshman in their first year, but to me it's not something to ignore. We've had our misses too. (And I'm not predicting anything, just considering the odds).
Since I'd like to have one more solid 6-8th guy (I'd take someone better than that, but I get that we couldn't keep everyone happy when we tried), but many posters here think it's a pipe dream to think anyone good would come for a bench role, I gave examples of decent mid-major starters who transferred to be key bench players (both knew they'd be reserves and both ended up 7th in minutes) on deep elite teams. Maybe those guys didn't exist this year (or maybe an overseas late addition will be that person for us). But it isn't a crazy idea.
If it's just a $ issue, then I agree there's nothing to discuss. But most people resisting bringing in another quality guy seem to be saying there just isn't room on the roster, and that's what I personally disagree with.
I think we're in better shape now than we seemed at this point last year. But there were some huge surprises (both positive and negative, but very much net positive IMO) last year that I don't think are likely every year, so I think we likely need to be quite a bit better going into next year to have good odds of finishing higher.
What percentage of seasons do we lose one of the original top 8 players from the rotation for an extended stretch, or for the season? Any reason for not playing counts -- injured, didn't live up to expectations, anything. From my (weak) memory, we lose someone almost every season. That means that player #9 will likely be a main rotation player for at least part, if not a significant portion of the season. When you throw in the occasional illnesses, family emergencies etc, player #9 is a non-trivial role. You may now continue the argument about the value of player #10 in the rotation.
I suspect players #9 and #10 are the fallback guard and fallback forward, so the above argument may apply with a 50/50 split to which of #9 and #10 get the tick.
I suspect players #9 and #10 are the fallback guard and fallback forward, so the above argument may apply with a 50/50 split to which of #9 and #10 get the tick.
No one can conclusively resist because there is not enough room on the roster because it is so player dependent in terms of fit and availability, and representations made to the existing players to induce them to sign. I think a lot of those people you say are resisting are just doubting that there is a player good enough to make a difference that would be willing to accept that role and not be a risk to the locker room or the retention of the freshmen that they have recruited. The coaching staff is not going to recruit over players they have promised not to recruit over. Yes, the current roster have all signed. But give me an example of an available player that we should be going after at this point that wouldn't break any promises or representations the staff has made to the other players. If the staff thought that there is such a player, they would go after them.
I really don’t think people are “resisting bringing in another quality guy”, in fact it’s being said we likely will. I’m just saying it’s not gonna wreck our season if we don’t immediately go out and find the next Justin Harmon. Justin Harmon or 3ppg sophomore Jake Davis are not saviors that are going to vault us to a guaranteed NC.
Well, it could win you a game or two in the regular season. That itself is a difference in a seed line.
If we had anybody to come in and get the ball past half court outside of Keaton, I think we win the Wisconsin game at home. Playing 6 guys was very hard - but it’s what you face when the guys at the end of the bench are essentially unplayable. You don’t want that to be the case.
If you take Justin Harmon off the team when TSJ was out, I think we lose one or two games that we didn’t.
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Stoj has until 05/27 to drop out of the draft and 5 new players are coming in the next 2-3 weeks. Seems reasonable to let the staff make sure they have bodies on campus before they pivot to filling a hypothetical hole in the back half of the roster.
I don't think people are saying there isn't room, it's that this isn't fantasy football and adding someone to a talented roster is a balancing act that the staff has earned trust to do.
I think another poster already said this, but the legend of Ty Rodger's defense is funny on here. For sure he was a very easy to like player that gave 100% effort all the time, and he was also a great rebounder. But he was not a great perimeter defender in the games I watched, and the metrics show him to be slightly above average.
The problem is what you're asking for is really not feasible. Duke and the Coach Cal teams of the 2010s have always been the exceptions.
Is there room to add a rotational 8th/9th man? IMO, yes, and it's kind of the missing piece at the moment.
Does it need to be a guaranteed starter and 5 star level transfer? No. There's just too much talent at the top of this roster for that to be the case. Staff tried to make it work with Blackwell, which would've been a monster addition, but it didn't work out (for whichever reason -- not going to speculate). That should tell you enough about how things stand as it pretains to that scenario.
I think there's 3 groups of people here for viewing our roster:
1) we did a Blackwell-replacement level addition, as consolation for the insane possibility that we would've landed him
2) We need a #9thMan. (use soph Jake as an example: 2-3ppg on 5-10min)
3) The roster is good as is, we shouldn't need any more additions.
I'd place myself in the second grouping. However, #1 is quite unrealistic given our projected starting group.
1) we did a Blackwell-replacement level addition, as consolation for the insane possibility that we would've landed him
2) We need a #9thMan. (use soph Jake as an example: 2-3ppg on 5-10min)
3) The roster is good as is, we shouldn't need any more additions.
I'd place myself in the second grouping. However, #1 is quite unrealistic given our projected starting group.
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Rebounder for sure...defender I question. The Elite 8 year he was often a liability when he picked up a guard and now throw in the knee injury. Just think it was a big question mark.
I know that, in this age of instant gratification for both the team and the players, its difficult to look ahead but we will have a real dearth of big men next year as our three solid big men will assuredly leave the program. It takes a while to integrate into Underwood's system and bringing a starter-level big man in to rotate with the current front line would set us up nicely for next year.
Neither Tommy nor his brother maintained their health over their career so another big shouldn't be thought of as a ninth man but a rotational front court player for this coming year. There has to be another big man somewhere in Europe who could fill that bill.
If its a money issue that's another issue. In any case I'm sure they're waiting for the Stoyacovic (sp?) decision before moving on someone else. And I'm sure that the Coach knows his roster better than any of us and will adjust as necessary. It likely won't happen today.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Taking his initial steps in the Josh Whitman path to power conference AD. Love that he's in M&A; I feared seeing "Compliance" under his "Capabilities" listing, the kiss of death for a young attorney.
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I'm fortunate to have seen what was probably the peak of his Illini career: his 20+ mins of tick at the 5 v. Maryland here in DC in '22. That was the game immediately after the heartbreaking, nationally-televised home loss to Purdue on MLK day. Kofi was injured and Curbelo was slowed by a virus. We lost, alas.
I think the role he likely would have had here might answer your question about shooting.
I highly doubt that as one of the final adds to the roster, the “bag” Ty got from Boise was very big. I think the move was all about playing time. And the good news for Ty is that he should have every opportunity to start and play big minutes. And his clearest route to take advantage of that opportunity is as part of Boise St’s backcourt, which I think Ty might have found very appealing.
Other than Ty, their guard options are likely starter Damari Wheeler-Thomas, a grad transfer from North Dakota St; sophomore AG Neto, who averaged almost 20 minutes off the bench for Broncos last year; and two very lightly used returnees. They also have an incoming freshman SG. Their likely starter at SF is 6-7 junior Peanut Carmichael. They brought in a lot of length with now seven guys 6-8 or taller on the roster.
Boise State does have a few Illini/Illinois connections. Returner Spencer Ahrens was recruited by Illini at some point. Ty’s potential backcourt starting mate DWT is from Elgin (Larkin). Another returner Ethan Lathan is from Rockford, though he came to Boise via AZ Compass Prep. Ty will also get to forge new relationships with a couple of foreign born players. Likely transfer starter Dovydas Butka is from Lithuania and incoming freshman Kaur Tomann is from Estonia. And fun fact about Tomann, though he didn’t play there because of a torn Achilles, he joined Long Island Lutheran for his senior year. That is of course where Curbelo played.
There's a gap between your #1 and #2 options. I think there's room for a (proven) key bench player- 6-8th man, 12-15mpg, gives us better options in case of injury, keeps our team more fresh through the season
We're already projected as a 1 seed by most. How many seed lines do you think we should try to move up from there?
On a more serious note, I've taken up too much space here with my opinion on this already, but just to summarize my thoughts:
- I think we will add one more, but it isn't going to be anyone super high-profile
- The 9th/10th on our F4 team last year were Lee & Petrovic, so surely that production won't be hard to repro
- Adding another bench piece doesn't move the needle as much as people are saying (NC favorites with vs #20ish without)
The primary issue remains. Our top 8 are really good players. There are still a lot of teams out there looking for starters. There is no one out there who could come to Illinois and be presumed to start at this point. The starting 5 are REALLY good.
The staff is waiting, because currently, most players are actively shopping themselves for starting spots. Lee and Ty left to find PT. That's the #1 reason guys at the tier we would be shopping, jump into the portal. For top players, it's top dollar, for guys who have been role players, it's PT to try to become a top dollar kind of guy next year.
We've spent on top dollar guys, and we don't have much guaranteed PT to offer right now. Could a guy come in and compete with Jake, Z, and the freshmen for minutes? Sure, but Obviously Z is going to play a LOT, and Jake was a starter for much of last year, fits extremely well into his role, and has not only earned the trust of the staff and his teammates, but is viewed as a team leader. Stealing his minutes is going to be VERY difficult. So you are left trying to recruit guys who really just want to play, to a roster where they are going to have to beat out a 6'7", top 50, "Swiss army knife" kind of player for any kind of consistent minutes, or wait until someone gets hurt.
Winning aside, it's not a very attractive sell. The staff is being patient, because they know that's what they have to do. There is no reason for them to be chasing their tails running after mid-tier players who are ultimately going to say, "no thanks".
Wait until later in the cycle, see who is left when the best seats are taken, and go from there. Instead, maybe spend a little time in Europe mining for gems...
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Except Justin Harmon wasn’t the 9th man on that team, he was the 7th. Freshman DGL was 9th. He averaged 5.2 minutes/game, 1.7 points (mostly in garbage time), and shot 34% from the field / 22% from 3.
I dont think there will be much mining for gems required if illinois goes Euro for a roster piece. Misko probably has them lined up in an orange and blue display case in order of position, price, and ability.
blackdog
- Champaign
Its been pretty heavily implied that bringing someone else in for that role risks losing one of the people currently in those spots. Seems not worth it when the guy most likely to leave would the one the staff thinks has one of the highest ceilings (Morillo).
I don't disagree with you. It might just happen since presumably they are still looking for an European guard.
The key to sustained success is giving some runway for our youngsters to grow. Of our top 8, 4 of them are almost certainly out the door next year. (The twins, Andrej, and Jake...unless the proposed 5 in 5 rules change that)
It is very possible, and I'd wager likely that Mirk and Vaaks will also strongly consider the NBA. (almost certainly go to the combine) Both are among the best freshmen in the country last year, who will be playing college ball this fall. Both will be given a ton of opportunity to showcase their facilitation skills this season, in an NBA style offense, surrounded by really good players. They both have the size and skills to attract plenty of attention from scouts.
I wouldn't bet the farm on Coleman being here either... He has the pedigree and skill set to be a potential one and done. He has a very NBA friendly skill set, and decent enough length. If he shoots the ball anything close to what he did in HS (which was completely absurd), he could be a lottery pick.
Sooo...
We will be looking at a near full re-load. Getting Morillo fully bought in to this program should be a top priority. No matter what his contribution is this year, he will have a massive opportunity the following year. When you consider the big picture, it's not hard to see why the staff is reluctant to continue big game hunting. I have no doubt they will continue to look for depth to mitigate injury risk, but they want these young guys to get their feet wet too.
I know Davis and Zens are already committed to enrolling in a few weeks. Brown should follow suit. Getting them on the floor with our vets will give the staff a much better idea of how they will hold up against B1G opponents. They can then assess what they might need to find before practices start.
Hopefully, Morillo and Coleman are of a similar mind, though they may have opportunities to compete internationally this summer, which they should take advantage of if offered. The more they compete with and against other elite young players, the more ready they will be for the bright lights of the B1G.
One of the reasons we have not found our "backup European guard" just yet.