Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#252      
Emerson Bigguns
Fly Illini Fly! said:
If the question is asking whether it’s more likely than not? Within the next 10 years? The smarter bet would be no.

I don’t think we’ll be that great defensively. To win the whole thing nowadays, you need to be ELITE on offense AND defense (top 5). We’re in the era of super teams; a decade ago that was probably a little different. SEVEN of the 8 one seeds the past two years have had +35 ratings on Kenpom. That’s completely unprecedented historically, and the top of the sport is operating at a different level.

I think our formula is good for multiple Final Fours; however, you’re inevitably going to run into that juggernaut team on both ends (Michigan, UCONN two years ago, etc).
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I think we could be better defensively. Defense often comes down to a consistent team effort, and communication. We were a different team defensively in the tournament. We installed a lot of new wrinkles and a different philosophy over the course of last year. Continuity within Coach Cam's principles will help on that end, and proof of concept is now there, s buy-in should be higher. It's many of these guys' last chance to do something special at this level and make an impression on scouts. The returnees know what it takes to play well on that end, and they know they are capable. They just have to take that challenge more consistently.

There are definitely questions on the perimeter on how well we can defend. We have the length to make it difficult for most teams. Clearly, Vaaks wasn't good on that end last year, but his whole team was lousy. (Providence was 323rd in DRtg...and Kim English is job hunting) His defensive metrics were mostly in line with those of his teammates. Those stats are really noisy, because they only measure team stops, and if no one is executing well, it's really hard to judge who is at fault... and ultimately, effort suffers when you are unsuccessful.

Stojakovic had questions on that end coming in. He was better than we thought he would be. Perhaps Vaaks can make similar strides. I'm sure he will get tested a lot, but our help defense should be better, and an expanded role for Z can't hurt. He was easily our best defensive player last year.

Coleman is a good enough athlete to be able to stay in front of his man. Strength will be a question, but it also was for Keaton, so it should not be a huge drop off. He probably has a better chance to be good on that end due to being a more quick twitch athlete.
 
#253      
ChiefGritty
Emerson Bigguns said:
I think we could be better defensively. Defense often comes down to a consistent team effort, and communication. We were a different team defensively in the tournament. We installed a lot of new wrinkles and a different philosophy over the course of last year. Continuity within Coach Cam's principles will help on that end, and proof of concept is now there, s buy-in should be higher. It's many of these guys' last chance to do something special at this level and make an impression on scouts. The returnees know what it takes to play well on that end, and they know they are capable. They just have to take that challenge more consistently.

There are definitely questions on the perimeter on how well we can defend. We have the length to make it difficult for most teams. Clearly, Vaaks wasn't good on that end last year, but his whole team was lousy. (Providence was 323rd in DRtg...and Kim English is job hunting) His defensive metrics were mostly in line with those of his teammates. Those stats are really noisy, because they only measure team stops, and if no one is executing well, it's really hard to judge who is at fault... and ultimately, effort suffers when you are unsuccessful.

Stojakovic had questions on that end coming in. He was better than we thought he would be. Perhaps Vaaks can make similar strides. I'm sure he will get tested a lot, but our help defense should be better, and an expanded role for Z can't hurt. He was easily our best defensive player last year.

Coleman is a good enough athlete to be able to stay in front of his man. Strength will be a question, but it also was for Keaton, so it should not be a huge drop off. He probably has a better chance to be good on that end due to being a more quick twitch athlete.
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I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but it's a very optimistic gloss on what is the biggest downside risk factor for next year's team (assuming Stojakovic returns).

The matchup hunter becomes the matchup huntee.
 
#255      
wc_illini
ChiefGritty said:
I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but it's a very optimistic gloss on what is the biggest downside risk factor for next year's team (assuming Stojakovic returns).

The matchup hunter becomes the matchup huntee.
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Yeah, and while our defensive metrics were significantly better against VCU and Houston and got me very excited, they were back on par with our season averages against Iowa and UConn, so I'm not sure what the takeaway is going into next year.

We have a consistent trend going back many seasons of having great defensive metrics (adjusted for opponent ORTG) against Q2+ opponents, but not so great against Q1, and that probably needs to get fixed if we want a good chance at a natty.
 
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