Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#226      
Illini 993
I wonder what the 3 %s are at the SFC compared to other arenas? Some arenas seem to have softer rims than others - maybe our rims are tighter comparatively. I did a brief look, but didn't find those stats, other than going game by game (which would take more time than it's worth for me.)
 
#228      
BretMyBeachHouse
the juiceman cometh said:
The bigger problem even than sample size is correlation/causation. What is your hypothesis as to why players are shooting worse here, only over the last two seasons? What changed at that point? And how does the fact that Big Z shot fine until more than halfway throught the season fit into that hypothesis.

My guess is 2 seasons was not chosen for any reason other than that it fit the narrative you wanted to advance, which is that transfers coming in invariably get worse at shooting 3s (except for the one that didn't) and therefore we should be skeptical that Vaaks will do well.
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I'm agnostic on this issue. I'm willing to accept just random statistical anomaly.

However, your "What changed at the point?" comment is pretty obvious. The team started launching 3s at a much higher rate. I'm not sure what other aspects of the offense changed. But there was a noticeable change on how many threes we were taking. I'm not sure the impact of that on the percentages. Perhaps none.

As I've joked before, we have a high powered offense. The last thing we need is players screwing it up by making 3s.
 
#231      
the juiceman cometh
BretMyBeachHouse said:
I'm agnostic on this issue. I'm willing to accept just random statistical anomaly.

However, your "What changed at the point?" comment is pretty obvious. The team started launching 3s at a much higher rate. I'm not sure what other aspects of the offense changed. But there was a noticeable change on how many threes we were taking. I'm not sure the impact of that on the percentages. Perhaps none.

As I've joked before, we have a high powered offense. The last thing we need is players screwing it up by making 3s.
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One problem with that theory is that it would affect the whole team, not just transfers. But between 2022-23 and 2023-24 we took roughly the same amount of 3s but our overall 3pt% went up by over 3.5%. Similar thing happened between 2024-25 and this past season. We take 12 more threes a game now that we did in 2019-2020, at a much higher percentage.

Another problem is that some of the transfers whose percentage went down took a lot fewer 3s here than they did at their previous schools. So under that theory their personal 3pt% should have gone up. But it didn't.
 
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#235      
wc_illini
the juiceman cometh said:
One problem with that theory is that it would affect the whole team, not just transfers. But between 2022-23 and 2023-24 we took roughly the same amount of 3s but our overall 3pt% went up by over 3.5%. Similar thing happened between 2024-25 and this past season. We take 12 more threes a game now that we did in 2019-2020, at a much higher percentage.

Another problem is that some of the transfers whose percentage went down took a lot fewer 3s here than they did at their previous schools. So under that theory their personal 3pt% should have gone up. But it didn't.
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My original theory (which I wasn't confident in to begin with and have subsequently found evidence debunking anyway) was more about team philosophy. Player X could attempt fewer 3s per game or even per possession than at their prior school just because they have the ball in their hands less or are in a different role, but if the team philosophy is that you take a 3 if you're slightly open regardless of the shot clock, that might affect a player's 3pt%. I don't think that theory is looking very strong though.
 
#236      
lstewart53x3
We had a multi-day discussion on the 9th man and as important as whether or not one of our freshman can give us 6 minutes and 2 points off the bench is, what concerns more is… defense.

Will we have an historically good offense again next year? Hard to say. But it’ll definitely be top 5, which is good enough to win a lot of games.

But defensively we might struggle. We were a good, not great defense last year and we lost 3 of our top 5 defenders off that team (Boswell, Keaton, and Ben). We’re now replacing them with two freshman (QC and Morillo), along with a sophomore who was one of the worst defenders on one of the worst defenses in the country (Vaaks).

What gives me hope for the defense next year is the returners. Year two in Crocker’s system should pay dividends. Could see both Andrej and Mirk taking big steps forward.

To me, defense is the biggest question mark going into this season.
 
#237      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
lstewart53x3 said:
We had a multi-day discussion on the 9th man and as important as whether or not one of our freshman can give us 6 minutes and 2 points off the bench is, what concerns more is… defense.
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Yes, I think 6 minutes and 2 points per game off the bench (for 28+ games played) would be perfect for the 9th man.
lstewart53x3 said:
Will we have an historically good offense again next year? Hard to say. But it’ll definitely be top 5, which is good enough to win a lot of games.

But defensively we might struggle. We were a good, not great defense last year and we lost 3 of our top 5 defenders off that team (Boswell, Keaton, and Ben). We’re now replacing them with two freshman (QC and Morillo), along with a sophomore who was one of the worst defenders on one of the worst defenses in the country (Vaaks).

What gives me hope for the defense next year is the returners. Year two in Crocker’s system should pay dividends. Could see both Andrej and Mirk taking big steps forward.

To me, defense is the biggest question mark going into this season.
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I'm optimistic about the defense because we have the formula. Which is protect the rim, take away the easy layups, and ideally force tough 2s.

Undoubtedly there will be a game where a team shoots the lights out and people freak out. Those games are outliers. For a 37 game sample size, our recipe works (if properly executed).

I also think Andrej will draw the top assignments, and can be a very good defender. Coleman can absolutely be a good defender, kid cares. The only true liability here is Vaaks.
 
#238      
Fly Illini Fly!
Number GIF

Sea Horse Man GIF
 
#243      
blackdog
lstewart53x3 said:
We had a multi-day discussion on the 9th man and as important as whether or not one of our freshman can give us 6 minutes and 2 points off the bench is, what concerns more is… defense.

Will we have an historically good offense again next year? Hard to say. But it’ll definitely be top 5, which is good enough to win a lot of games.

But defensively we might struggle. We were a good, not great defense last year and we lost 3 of our top 5 defenders off that team (Boswell, Keaton, and Ben). We’re now replacing them with two freshman (QC and Morillo), along with a sophomore who was one of the worst defenders on one of the worst defenses in the country (Vaaks).

What gives me hope for the defense next year is the returners. Year two in Crocker’s system should pay dividends. Could see both Andrej and Mirk taking big steps forward.

To me, defense is the biggest question mark going into this season.
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I think you can try and hide one bad defender if its Vaaks as long as he plays sound within the system. QC and Morillo have the ability to be solid defender, QC even a great one as long as he isn't a foul machine like freshman Sincere Harris. I love BAM and Keaton but they were too easy to screen. I have a feeling that QC is going to bring that Trent attitude that nobody is going to screen him off his guy.

Andrej at the end of the year was lightyears ahead of where he started. We might not think much about Mirk's footsteps but he gives effort, is strong, and a smart defender especially for his age, which will only improve with more experience. We really didn't see a lot of teams try to pick on him last year. Then another year of experience and weight room for the twin towers is only going to help on the back end.
 
#245      
BWA
blackdog said:
I think you can try and hide one bad defender if its Vaaks as long as he plays sound within the system. QC and Morillo have the ability to be solid defender, QC even a great one as long as he isn't a foul machine like freshman Sincere Harris. I love BAM and Keaton but they were too easy to screen. I have a feeling that QC is going to bring that Trent attitude that nobody is going to screen him off his guy.

Andrej at the end of the year was lightyears ahead of where he started. We might not think much about Mirk's footsteps but he gives effort, is strong, and a smart defender especially for his age, which will only improve with more experience. We really didn't see a lot of teams try to pick on him last year. Then another year of experience and weight room for the twin towers is only going to help on the back end.
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I also expect Mirk to be much quicker next season with a full summer with Fletch.
 
#248      
Det_Illini_fan
Hey, if we can stop Fears from going straight up the middle in crunch time 50 times over this year, I’ll be ecstatic and call it an improvement.
 
#250      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Folks here won’t buy it, but Mirk’s draft profile is actually the least impressive of our five starters. And Z might even be higher, just from an NBA standpoint.

He just doesn’t have the quickness or mobility.
 
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