NBA Draft

[Fly Illini Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2066479086965289394

“No. 6 Keaton Wagler

ANALYSIS


I fall in love with players such as Wagler. Players who can dribble, pass, shoot and process the game quickly are tough to pass up for me. Wagler is a terrific bet to play both on and off the ball in an era when the NBA demands those skills from its perimeter players. He drills over 38 percent of his pull-up 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s, making him a serious floor-spacing threat. His vision is superb and his handle is tight and slithery despite playing upright. He’s an elite decision-maker with an excellent feel for the game. This is the kind of player who thrives in today’s NBA, and he’s already played in an NBA-style scheme with NBA-level spacing at Illinois.


There aren’t many scenarios in which Wagler crashes out of the league and fails, because it’s hard to do so when you can shoot, pass and handle at this level. But to reach his All-Star upside, Wagler needs to get stronger. He’s totally fearless on his drives and seems to have great basketball character. But he needs to get more physical to maintain the advantages he creates in ball screens and become a consistent on-ball threat. He’ll also need strength to defend more consistently than what he showed at Illinois this year. It’s going to take some time.


This is the biggest surprise one-and-done draft pick in the entire time I’ve been scouting. Wagler was elite this season at Illinois despite his lack of pedigree. He also led the No. 1 offense in the country. This is a potential All-Star guard if things break right with his physical development. But even if he’s always a bit too skinny, I still think teams should bet on him.”

 

[jamarvelous31]

Lol, I didn't think I would ever have to to defend the bulls but saying the Bulls were an impediment for Jimmy Butler is an insane take.

Thibs has a lot of flaws and definitely runs players into the ground but he is also fantastic at developing players and teams. Case in point see the Knicks team that just won the NBA championship does not exist without Thibs building and developing those guys.

Jimmy Butler owes his entire career to Thibs as well. Do you remember how incredibly raw he was as a rookie? Also, he played 26 minutes per game in his 2nd year. Thibs turned him into a lockdown defender and he made his name guarding Lebron. That defensive ability than bought time for Butler to develop his offensive game.

The Bulls traded Jimmy because Jimmy was a head case that forced his way out. He demanded a trade from Minnesota less than a year later and was gone halfway though his 2nd year there. Then later forced his way out of Miami.

The bulls probably should have just give him the supermax but let's not pretend like Butler was completely innocent. Really both him and Wade quit on the season before while Rondo nearly willed them to a playoff victory before he got injured.

We're speaking in alternate universes here, so is it possible to prove that Jimmy wouldn't have developed similarly under another coach? Of course not.

Could he have developed faster his 2nd year were he not played behind Marco Bellineli and the ghost of Richard Hamilton? Probably? If you look at his 2nd year and his MIP year, the per 36 difference seems to be minutes/opportunity...

The issue with this whole conversation is that threshold for if an idiom can be relevant was arbitrarily set at "no player ever could have succeeded". I was originally excluding Jimmy b/c the OP was about if Illinois' likely top 10 pick would want to go there.

The Bulls few success stories are exactly because they're so bad at drafting and developing lottery talent. There were huge opportunities for dudes like Jimmy vs McDermott or Ayo vs Patrick Williams.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2066503659710525772

"5. LA Clippers (via Indiana)
Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Freshman

The next phase of the draft begins at No. 5, where the Clippers are said to be listening to trade options, giving them a different pathway to improve. This pick, obtained from Indiana in the Ivica Zubac trade after it dropped out of the top four, gives LA a valuable chip to replenish its asset cupboard, particularly if it can move back and still select a player with which it feels comfortable. Either way, this draft is an important opportunity for the veteran-heavy Clippers to pivot younger.

Rival teams believe Wagler is among the top options for the Clippers if they make this pick. Last week, he opted to cancel multiple workouts inside the top 10, a sign he feels comfortable with his standing. His versatility and fast-rising trajectory have given him broad appeal with every team in the 5-10 range, and he isn't expected to be on the board long if he falls past No. 5.

The Clippers are said to be looking for a player who can immediately complement the smaller Darius Garland, the key return for James Harden at the trade deadline. Mikel Brown Jr. and Brayden Burries are two prospects who fit that mold, with Brown scheduled to work out in LA later this week. Of that trio, Wagler best marries long-term upside with immediate rotation value, thanks to his size, shooting and feel as a ball-moving offensive conduit at both backcourt spots."

 

[ChiefGritty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2066503659710525772

"5. LA Clippers (via Indiana)
Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Freshman

The next phase of the draft begins at No. 5, where the Clippers are said to be listening to trade options, giving them a different pathway to improve. This pick, obtained from Indiana in the Ivica Zubac trade after it dropped out of the top four, gives LA a valuable chip to replenish its asset cupboard, particularly if it can move back and still select a player with which it feels comfortable. Either way, this draft is an important opportunity for the veteran-heavy Clippers to pivot younger.

Rival teams believe Wagler is among the top options for the Clippers if they make this pick. Last week, he opted to cancel multiple workouts inside the top 10, a sign he feels comfortable with his standing. His versatility and fast-rising trajectory have given him broad appeal with every team in the 5-10 range, and he isn't expected to be on the board long if he falls past No. 5.

The Clippers are said to be looking for a player who can immediately complement the smaller Darius Garland, the key return for James Harden at the trade deadline. Mikel Brown Jr. and Brayden Burries are two prospects who fit that mold, with Brown scheduled to work out in LA later this week. Of that trio, Wagler best marries long-term upside with immediate rotation value, thanks to his size, shooting and feel as a ball-moving offensive conduit at both backcourt spots."

Braden Smith and Kylan Boswell to the Bulls with their two second rounders in that mock

I gotta be honest, I just have a spidey sense the Bulls are going to take Wagler at 4. I very strenuously hope they do not and don't understand why they would, but it would explain both parties behavior in the predraft process.

In general I have the sense that the very firm tiers of the reporter and analyst community aren't shared by the teams right now.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

I very strenuously hope they do not and don't understand why they would

Yes, you do understand why they would.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Yes, you do understand why they would.

Dumb Bulls being dumb?

Sure, but Bryson Graham is new and described a philosophy that, great as Wagler is, is the exact opposite of his virtues as a player.

Maybe this is just my own anxieties talking, but I feel like in all sports GM's of roughly my generation who were raised in an analytics-fluent way are very prone to out-thinking themselves and getting seduced by the non-obvious and I just get an unmistakable odor of that here.

 

[Illinicpa14]

Braden Smith and Kylan Boswell to the Bulls with their two second rounders in that mock

I gotta be honest, I just have a spidey sense the Bulls are going to take Wagler at 4. I very strenuously hope they do not and don't understand why they would, but it would explain both parties behavior in the predraft process.

In general I have the sense that the very firm tiers of the reporter and analyst community aren't shared by the teams right now.

I’m curious if the success of Brunson as an undersized, overlooked winner helps Braden Smith move up in the draft in the same general mold.

 

[NarrowJ]

Keaton's athleticism and strength profiles are holding him back a bit

He measured really well for a perimeter creator, height w/o shoes 6'5, wingspan 6'6 1/4, standing reach 8'4 (funny that I barked all season about him having a 6'11 wingspan... wasn't even close to that... also not even sure where I heard/read that now at this point)

We point to Ayo quite often, but if Keaton could enjoy a similar trajectory in strength and athleticism, then he's going to be very good. Ayo, at the same age, was also completing his freshman season at Illinois and Keaton is a bit ahead of where he was skill wise and has natural mental processing ability that rivals anyone.

What is his ceiling?

Frame Expansion: His added mass (20lbs during single season at Illinois) did not seem to hinder him explosiveness-wise as he still tested with a 33" standing vert and 36" max vert.

Deceleration/Contact: I see a lot of room yet to improve core strength which is going to help in an area he really needs to show improvement: finishing through contact

Burst: He also needs gains in the lower-body to improve first step, creating separation, jumping, etcetera

What is Caleb Wilson's ceiling if he can't develop a reasonably efficient jump shot? Its a real risk drafting that high (just as Keaton gaining a significant amount of additional strength and athleticism is a big risk).

Not trying to create an argument for drafting Wagler over Wilson, because industry-wide its a decision that's already been made for them and they'll be ridiculed endlessly if they were do so, but I can still see a clear path there for Wagler to possibly have a better and longer NBA career.

 

[ChiefGritty]

I’m curious if the success of Brunson as an undersized, overlooked winner helps Braden Smith move up in the draft in the same general mold.

Smith is just so small. He measured 5'10", 166 at the combine. Brunson had 3 inches and 30 lbs on him entering the league.

Keaton's athleticism and strength profiles are holding him back a bit

He measured really well for a perimeter creator, height w/o shoes 6'5, wingspan 6'6 1/4, standing reach 8'4 (funny that I barked all season about him having a 6'11 wingspan... wasn't even close to that... also not even sure where I heard/read that now at this point)

We point to Ayo quite often, but if Keaton could enjoy a similar trajectory in strength and athleticism, then he's going to be very good. Ayo, at the same age, was also completing his freshman season at Illinois and Keaton is a bit ahead of where he was skill wise and has natural mental processing ability that rivals anyone.

What is his ceiling?

Frame Expansion: His added mass (20lbs during single season at Illinois) did not seem to hinder him explosiveness-wise as he still tested with a 33" standing vert and 36" max vert.

Deceleration/Contact: I see a lot of room yet to improve core strength which is going to help in an area he really needs to show improvement: finishing through contact

Burst: He also needs gains in the lower-body to improve first step, creating separation, jumping, etcetera

What is Caleb Wilson's ceiling if he can't develop a reasonably efficient jump shot? Its a real risk drafting that high (just as Keaton gaining a significant amount of additional strength and athleticism is a big risk).

Not trying to create an argument for drafting Wagler over Wilson, because industry-wide its a decision that's already been made for them and they'll be ridiculed endlessly if they were do so, but I can still see a clear path there for Wagler to possibly have a better and longer NBA career.

I don't know if any teams are thinking this way, but just a stray thought: Wagler is so perfect for today's NBA, but there are a lot of calls to change how the game is played in the NBA, and the "traditional" basketball people are pining for has rewarded the size and explosiveness of Caleb Wilson's since Dr. Naismith first nailed up a peach basket, whereas Wagler's phenomenal feel and timing for manipulating the subtleties of having to account for shooters on all five points of the arc is a very modern and specific skill.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

He had a below average career for a #1 pick, arguably because he was being played when most teams wouldn't have and then his rehab was mismanaged because no one trusted the Bulls medical staff.

He won the MVP because folks were tired of LeBron winning it/sports writers rebelling over The Decision, not because he was the best or even most valuable player (Howard was arguably more valuable too).

There are quite a few guys on the list of former MVP's who are there for similar reasons.

Kareem led the league in PER & Win Shares 9 times, but only won 6 MVPs.
Chamberlain 8 times only 4 MVPs
Jordan 8 times, 5 MVPs.

Voter fatigue has been an issue forever.

Steve Nash wasn't top ten in either category one of the years he won. He was barely top 10 the other year he won, so Rose isn't even the least deserving MVP since 2000.

Often, they vote for the best guy on the best team. (Though Malone winning in 1997 is an obvious deviation.) Chicago had the best record in the league, and Rose was certainly the best player on the team in 2010-11.

It's a pretty darn elite company regardless.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

Dumb Bulls being dumb?

I will continue to think the Bulls will do the cheap/dumb (ideally both!) thing until proven otherwise. They've stumbled upon a cool ticket-selling/fan interest hack in drafting players from Chicago's Actual B1G Team, not sure why they would let basketball sense override that.

 

[PepeSilvia]

We're speaking in alternate universes here, so is it possible to prove that Jimmy wouldn't have developed similarly under another coach? Of course not.

Could he have developed faster his 2nd year were he not played behind Marco Bellineli and the ghost of Richard Hamilton? Probably? If you look at his 2nd year and his MIP year, the per 36 difference seems to be minutes/opportunity...

View attachment 50578

The issue with this whole conversation is that threshold for if an idiom can be relevant was arbitrarily set at "no player ever could have succeeded". I was originally excluding Jimmy b/c the OP was about if Illinois' likely top 10 pick would want to go there.

The Bulls few success stories are exactly because they're so bad at drafting and developing lottery talent. There were huge opportunities for dudes like Jimmy vs McDermott or Ayo vs Patrick Williams.

Like I mentioned I'm not the type to defend the Bulls, I just fundamentally don't think you watched the Bulls of that era if you think they did a poor job with Butler.

You legitimately got to watch him improve in real time as he developed to shoot and attack the basket and earned playing time doing so. He not buried behind Rip or Marco towards the end of the year. He played a ton from January onward and played all 48 minutes in 5 of 12 playoff games.

Paxson was actually solid at drafting early on except the insanely bad Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas swap. The biggest development miss imo is probably Mirotic.

 

[jamarvelous31]

There are quite a few guys on the list of former MVP's who are there for similar reasons.

Kareem led the league in PER & Win Shares 9 times, but only won 6 MVPs.
Chamberlain 8 times only 4 MVPs
Jordan 8 times, 5 MVPs.

Voter fatigue has been an issue forever.

Steve Nash wasn't top ten in either category one of the years he won. He was barely top 10 the other year he won, so Rose isn't even the least deserving MVP since 2000.

Often, they vote for the best guy on the best team. (Though Malone winning in 1997 is an obvious deviation.) Chicago had the best record in the league, and Rose was certainly the best player on the team in 2010-11.

It's a pretty darn elite company regardless.

For sure. Rose is just unique in how little he did after. He's still likely getting in the HOF based on 'youngest MVP' ..but didn't make an AS team the rest of his career.

You're right that 80% of the time MVPs are from the top 2 seeds. But the Bulls Heat were 1-2 (bulls led by 2 games) and Lebron led Rose in almost every traditional & analytics based statistical category.. it was pretty high up there in "snubs".

As an aside, Nash beating the leading scorer of a 7th seed team always felt like it was more of a media narrative. It's telling that Kobe didn't even finish 2nd in overall voting, just 1st place votes.