“No. 6 Keaton Wagler
ANALYSIS
I fall in love with players such as Wagler. Players who can dribble, pass, shoot and process the game quickly are tough to pass up for me. Wagler is a terrific bet to play both on and off the ball in an era when the NBA demands those skills from its perimeter players. He drills over 38 percent of his pull-up 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s, making him a serious floor-spacing threat. His vision is superb and his handle is tight and slithery despite playing upright. He’s an elite decision-maker with an excellent feel for the game. This is the kind of player who thrives in today’s NBA, and he’s already played in an NBA-style scheme with NBA-level spacing at Illinois.
There aren’t many scenarios in which Wagler crashes out of the league and fails, because it’s hard to do so when you can shoot, pass and handle at this level. But to reach his All-Star upside, Wagler needs to get stronger. He’s totally fearless on his drives and seems to have great basketball character. But he needs to get more physical to maintain the advantages he creates in ball screens and become a consistent on-ball threat. He’ll also need strength to defend more consistently than what he showed at Illinois this year. It’s going to take some time.
This is the biggest surprise one-and-done draft pick in the entire time I’ve been scouting. Wagler was elite this season at Illinois despite his lack of pedigree. He also led the No. 1 offense in the country. This is a potential All-Star guard if things break right with his physical development. But even if he’s always a bit too skinny, I still think teams should bet on him.”
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