There are a lot of math junkies here trying to calculate basketball championships as though it's an algorithm. While there is certainly some math involved, when you're at the top of the sport, and we are, it the becomes more about intangibles, and match ups, finding a way to be bullet-proof on both sides of the floor.
Reality is that the offense and style of play will have to make up for the defense in all likelihood, and then we'll have to have the coaching and gamers/clutchness to win the whole thing. What has been pretty clear the last 3 years is that the best coaches in the game have been in the national championship game. Dusty, Hurley, Golden, Painter, Sampson. This is why I think you need Brad to be more than one gear. Last year, Dusty threw full court pressure on UConn and it totally disturbed their pace and sets. You need wrinkles, ways to adjust and maybe grab that 6-0 run. Winning the title isn't going to be a 2+2=4 thing. Once you get to the Elite 8, Final 4, it's not going to be math.
Florida was a 1 seed and lost to Iowa. Hurley got to the Final and played Michigan tougher than Arizona, with a less talented team than Duke. How do you avoid the upset and have the edge in tight tourney games? Avoiding upsets is usually about having a high floor, elite front court. Winning tight games against top teams is usually about guardplay and coaching. I'd say for us to be bulletproof, the bigger variable is Coleman and Vaaks really developing into a comprehensive backcourt and Brad's coaching continuing to evolve. The frontcourt has already proven to be F4 worthy and they all have an additional year.