Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#551      
In the recruiting thread, the debate is whether Petrovic was a bust or not.

In this thread, the debate is whether we have a point gaurd or not.

Maybe there's something to be said about how the 6"1 point guard we're calling for, couldn't even get on the court last year?
 
#552      
I did state college, but I knew this would come up. You won't find a Luka's in college. If we think Vaaks is Luka, let's go for it.

At this rate of Magic and Luka comparisons, we should really start turning all players 6'7" and above into PGs. It's only rational. Maybe Andrej and Mirk can get a whirl running point too. How are their passing rates?

Last 10 Cousy winners and height:

YearPlayerCollegeListed Height
2026Darius Acuff Jr.Arkansas6'2"
2025Braden SmithPurdue6'0"
2024Tristen NewtonUConn6'5"
2023Markquis NowellKansas State5'8" (measured 5'7" pro)
2022Collin GillespieVillanova6'3" (measured 6'1" pro)
2021Ayo DosunmuIllinois6'5"
2020Payton PritchardOregon6'2"
2019Ja MorantMurray State6'3"
2018Jalen BrunsonVillanova6'3"
2017Frank Mason IIIKansas5'11"
For one, this is an incredibly small sample size. And also includes two guys, in Newton and Ayo, who are closer in size to Vaaks than they are to Fland. Greivous Vasquez won the Cousy award at 6-6, and more recently Wagler, also at 6-6, was a very successful PG in college (though for some reason he ended up winning the SG award but I mean we all watched play PG right?). So is the contention here that there's some barrier between say 6-6 and 6-7 that makes it impossible to play PG?

Most importantly, at one point I believe you challenged us to name one successful college PG at 6-7 or taller. I submit to you Julius Hodge, of NC State, finalist for the 2005 Bob Cousy award for best college point guard, standing at 6 foot, 7 inches tall. Debate over.

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#553      
more recently Wagler, also at 6-6, was a very successful PG in college (though for some reason he ended up winning the SG award but I mean we all watched play PG right?).
I think this worked out well for us because if Wagler got listed as a PG, he wouldn’t have won the award over Acuff.

But because he was listed as a SG, he was simply better / more productive than the other names on the list (and thus won the award).
 
#554      
You can be tall and be a point guard. Example: Magic.

You can be short, lead your team in assists, and not be a point guard. Example: AI

You can be tall and lead your team in ast% and not be a point guard. Example: Vlade Divac.

There's levels to this.

The truth is probably closer to: Our offense does not require a prototypical point guard to be efficient.
 
#556      
For one, this is an incredibly small sample size. And also includes two guys, in Newton and Ayo, who are closer in size to Vaaks than they are to Fland. Greivous Vasquez won the Cousy award at 6-6, and more recently Wagler, also at 6-6, was a very successful PG in college (though for some reason he ended up winning the SG award but I mean we all watched play PG right?). So is the contention here that there's some barrier between say 6-6 and 6-7 that makes it impossible to play PG?

Most importantly, at one point I believe you challenged us to name one successful college PG at 6-7 or taller. I submit to you Julius Hodge, of NC State, finalist for the 2005 Bob Cousy award for best college point guard, standing at 6 foot, 7 inches tall. Debate over.

Parks And Recreation Mic Drop GIF by PeacockTV
Not bad - badabing. Good old Julius. Forgot about that guy.
 
#557      
Although I disagree with you on Vaaks, you do make a good point. There seem to be a lot of posters here that just think you can put the biggest guy out there, whether it be PG, SF, or whatever, and you automatically win the game.

There's a reason there aren't many 6'7 PGs in college ball. Generally guys much smaller than that have better handles and are quicker.

But Vaaks at 6'7 looks like a PG to me (at least offensively).
Ding ding ding - they have jets, tighter handles, can weave through traffic, keep the ball safe in pressure, run a break/acclerate. Think Nijel James at Marquette. There is a reason over the history of time, the vast majority of PG's have been the shortest guy on the floor - it's physics. There is less room between the hand and the ground, center of gravity. It's the same reason running backs are usually shorter.

Sure, you can whip out the EuroPG type with the hesis, two feet play, booty ball and eurostep, but they're usually not ready at the college level, or would already be in the NBA.

But yeah, in our offense a big PG could be a cleaner fit, similar to Newton in that UConn offense. I guess we'll know if/when a team applies pressure and/or Vaaks is getting downhilled on defense.
 
#558      
Ding ding ding - they have jets, tighter handles, can weave through traffic, keep the ball safe in pressure, run a break/acclerate. Think Nijel James at Marquette. There is a reason over the history of time, the vast majority of PG's have been the shortest guy on the floor - it's physics. There is less room between the hand and the ground, center of gravity. It's the same reason running backs are usually shorter.

Sure, you can whip out the EuroPG type with the hesis, two feet play, booty ball and eurostep, but they're usually not ready at the college level, or would already be in the NBA.

But yeah, in our offense a big PG could be a cleaner fit, similar to Newton in that UConn offense. I guess we'll know if/when a team applies pressure and/or Vaaks is getting downhilled on defense.
Last year, we had one of the most efficient offenses in modern history without a point guard as you describe it. So I guess it’s not needed?
 
#559      
Ding ding ding - they have jets, tighter handles, can weave through traffic, keep the ball safe in pressure, run a break/acclerate. Think Nijel James at Marquette. There is a reason over the history of time, the vast majority of PG's have been the shortest guy on the floor - it's physics. There is less room between the hand and the ground, center of gravity. It's the same reason running backs are usually shorter.

Sure, you can whip out the EuroPG type with the hesis, two feet play, booty ball and eurostep, but they're usually not ready at the college level, or would already be in the NBA.

But yeah, in our offense a big PG could be a cleaner fit, similar to Newton in that UConn offense. I guess we'll know if/when a team applies pressure and/or Vaaks is getting downhilled on defense.
It’s been discovered that those skills and physical attributes classically associated with “point guards” do not correlate with winning basketball games, particularly with the rules and skill across all positions in the modern game. Think Nigel James at Marquette. Most teams have guys like that because there are a hell of a lot more 6’1” guys on the planet than there are 6’6”+ guys. Running backs only last 2.5 years in the NFL partly because they are comparatively easy to replace via the draft.
 
#560      
Ding ding ding - they have jets, tighter handles, can weave through traffic, keep the ball safe in pressure, run a break/acclerate. Think Nijel James at Marquette. There is a reason over the history of time, the vast majority of PG's have been the shortest guy on the floor - it's physics. There is less room between the hand and the ground, center of gravity. It's the same reason running backs are usually shorter.

Sure, you can whip out the EuroPG type with the hesis, two feet play, booty ball and eurostep, but they're usually not ready at the college level, or would already be in the NBA.

But yeah, in our offense a big PG could be a cleaner fit, similar to Newton in that UConn offense. I guess we'll know if/when a team applies pressure and/or Vaaks is getting downhilled on defense.
He won't be guarding the opponent's PG too often. Why do you insist that our primary PG on offense has to guard the opponent's PG? You realize he can be our main PG on offense, yet a quicker guy like Coleman or Williams can get guard the opponent's PG?
 
#561      
I was trying to figure out what our “floor” is for next season.

I think we will have a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense. Last year's team was better than both those marks, but this team doesn't have a Keaton and maybe some things aren't perfectly what they were in terms of efficiency … so let's say top 5 in O and top 40 in D.

Here's the list of teams since 2010 that entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense on BartTorvik (I HATE using post tournament data for determining where we need to be pre tournament, so yes, entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense):

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)

Note that the teams with an asterisk were in the 20-40 range defensively (which I think is most realistic for our team next year). In addition to being a top 5 offense of course.

Also note Illinois last year entered the tournament with the No. 2 offense and No. 24 defense.

So, the truth is that teams with our profile are very rarely below a 2 seed (and are often a 1 seed).

Last year we were one of those rare cases. Most of the time that team would be a 1 or 2 seed, but for whatever reason we weren't.

My expectation next year would be 1 or 2 seed. Maybe a 3 if things again fall that way. Of course all this is assuming we don't have a huge downgrade anywhere.
 
#562      
I was trying to figure out what our “floor” is for next season.

I think we will have a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense. Last year's team was better than both those marks, but this team doesn't have a Keaton and maybe some things aren't perfectly what they were in terms of efficiency … so let's say top 5 in O and top 40 in D.

Here's the list of teams since 2010 that entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense on BartTorvik (I HATE using post tournament data for determining where we need to be pre tournament, so yes, entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense):

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)

Note that the teams with an asterisk were in the 20-40 range defensively (which I think is most realistic for our team next year). In addition to being a top 5 offense of course.

Also note Illinois last year entered the tournament with the No. 2 offense and No. 24 defense.

So, the truth is that teams with our profile are very rarely below a 2 seed (and are often a 1 seed).

Last year we were one of those rare cases. Most of the time that team would be a 1 or 2 seed, but for whatever reason we weren't.

My expectation next year would be 1 or 2 seed. Maybe a 3 if things again fall that way. Of course all this is assuming we don't have a huge downgrade anywhere.
I definitely see top 5 offense, where in that top 5 could be higher than lower, but elite being the key.

Defense I’m going to be higher on. I think Year 2 of a Crocker system, a slight emphasis on improved speed and transition pressure, plus general player improvements. I think Williams and Coleman will be athletic freshman, we’ll have strong rim protection from years 2 and 3 of the Ivicii, and Vaaks I think could be night and day compared to what he was at Providence. Those saying “he’s bad at defense because he was at Providence” greatly undervalues improvements in training and schemes. Lendeborg was a JUCO player before UAB and Michigan. I’m sure some would say he wasn’t great at defense before he showed his stripes and went to Michigan. Just saying, I can see improvements with our system and conditioning. All told, I think I see us as a top 25 defense or better.

I think Brad is gonna Brad and incrementally improve year over year in the areas that struggled the year prior, just as he always does. He’s truly improves the formula each year.
 
#564      
You can be tall and be a point guard. Example: Magic.

You can be short, lead your team in assists, and not be a point guard. Example: AI

You can be tall and lead your team in ast% and not be a point guard. Example: Vlade Divac.

There's levels to this.

The truth is probably closer to: Our offense does not require a prototypical point guard to be efficient.

All true. While in general PGs are your shortest player (for very valid reasons) and Cs are your tallest, it can very a lot depending on the skills of the individual and how those skills fit in with your other players.
 
#565      
I definitely see top 5 offense, where in that top 5 could be higher than lower, but elite being the key.

Defense I’m going to be higher on. I think Year 2 of a Crocker system, a slight emphasis on improved speed and transition pressure, plus general player improvements. I think Williams and Coleman will be athletic freshman, we’ll have strong rim protection from years 2 and 3 of the Ivicii, and Vaaks I think could be night and day compared to what he was at Providence. Those saying “he’s bad at defense because he was at Providence” greatly undervalues improvements in training and schemes. Lendeborg was a JUCO player before UAB and Michigan. I’m sure some would say he wasn’t great at defense before he showed his stripes and went to Michigan. Just saying, I can see improvements with our system and conditioning. All told, I think I see us as a top 25 defense or better.

I think Brad is gonna Brad and incrementally improve year over year in the areas that struggled the year prior, just as he always does. He’s truly improves the formula each year.
Yes, but I was talking about floors. As a floor, I don’t see us worse than a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense (unless things completely fall off the rails).

But most of all I’m trying to point out the security that comes with being elite offensively (top 5).

- - -

I actually re-checked the data, and the concept applies all the way to top 5 O / top 45 D.

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
*Wisconsin (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)


So, for the recap: there’s 43 teams here who have entered the tournament with at least a top 5 offense and top 45 defense (since 2010).

62.8% were 1 seeds.
30.2% were 2 seeds.
4.7% were 3 seeds. (us last year and Purdue in 2019)
2.3% were 4 seeds.

Also: amongst those 43 teams, 20 of them have an asterisk (meaning top 5 offense and between 20-45 defensively; translates to elite offense and “good enough” defense).

Of those 20 teams:

40% were 1 seeds
45% were 2 seeds
10% were 3 seeds
5% were 4 seeds

- - -

The gist: when you have a top 5 offense and a defense that’s at least “good enough,” you are very likely to be a 1 or 2 seed.

Rare occasion that you fall to a 3 seed (like us last year), but honestly that’s still not terrible.
 
Last edited:
#566      
Yes, but I was talking about floors. As a floor, I don’t see us worse than a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense (unless things completely fall off the rails).

But most of all I’m trying to point out the security that comes with being elite offensively (top 5).

- - -

I actually re-checked the data, and the concept applies all the way to top 5 O / top 45 D.

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
*Wisconsin (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)


So, for the recap: there’s 43 teams here who have entered the tournament with at least a top 5 offense and top 45 defense (since 2010).

62.8% were 1 seeds.
30.2% were 2 seeds.
4.7% were 3 seeds. (us last year and Purdue in 2019)
2.3% were 4 seeds.

Also: amongst those 43 teams, 20 of them have an asterisk (meaning top 5 offense and between 20-45 defensively; translates to elite offense and “good enough” defense).

Of those 20 teams:

40% were 1 seeds
45% were 2 seeds
10% were 3 seeds
5% were 4 seeds

- - -

The gist: when you have a top 5 offense and a defense that’s at least “good enough,” you are very likely to be a 1 or 2 seed.

Rare occasion that you fall to a 3 seed (like us last year), but honestly that’s still not terrible.
I'm assuming this means we're likely to finish above USC?
 
#567      
I was trying to figure out what our “floor” is for next season.

I think we will have a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense. Last year's team was better than both those marks, but this team doesn't have a Keaton and maybe some things aren't perfectly what they were in terms of efficiency … so let's say top 5 in O and top 40 in D.

Here's the list of teams since 2010 that entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense on BartTorvik (I HATE using post tournament data for determining where we need to be pre tournament, so yes, entered the tournament with a top 5 offense and top 40 defense):

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)

Note that the teams with an asterisk were in the 20-40 range defensively (which I think is most realistic for our team next year). In addition to being a top 5 offense of course.

Also note Illinois last year entered the tournament with the No. 2 offense and No. 24 defense.

So, the truth is that teams with our profile are very rarely below a 2 seed (and are often a 1 seed).

Last year we were one of those rare cases. Most of the time that team would be a 1 or 2 seed, but for whatever reason we weren't.

My expectation next year would be 1 or 2 seed. Maybe a 3 if things again fall that way. Of course all this is assuming we don't have a huge downgrade anywhere.
Great work - the one caveat I’d say is the way they pick tournament teams and seeds is way different now then the early part of your analysis. Teams also schedule differently and then game those metrics way more then in the past (i.e. a coach in 2010 like Bruce Weber probably didn’t know what analytics was lol).

It’s a great barometer and macro point holds - if you are great on one side, good on the other side - you’re a protected seed and a solid path to a S16/FF.
 
#568      
Great work - the one caveat I’d say is the way they pick tournament teams and seeds is way different now then the early part of your analysis. Teams also schedule differently and then game those metrics way more then in the past (i.e. a coach in 2010 like Bruce Weber probably didn’t know what analytics was lol).

It’s a great barometer and macro point holds - if you are great on one side, good on the other side - you’re a protected seed and a solid path to a S16/FF.
What do you think coaches do to "game" the metrics?

For efficiency metrics, maybe they keep starters in longer during blowouts (winning or losing) since it isn't exactly clear how these metrics define garbage time. Otherwise?

For quad records, they may want to schedule the easiest opponents in a certain quad, but they can't know in advance how another team will be ranked, so an easier Quad-1 opponent could easily become a tough Quad-2 opponent, which is probably the team you most want to avoid.
 
#569      
Yes, but I was talking about floors. As a floor, I don’t see us worse than a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense (unless things completely fall off the rails).

But most of all I’m trying to point out the security that comes with being elite offensively (top 5).

- - -

I actually re-checked the data, and the concept applies all the way to top 5 O / top 45 D.

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
*Wisconsin (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)


So, for the recap: there’s 43 teams here who have entered the tournament with at least a top 5 offense and top 45 defense (since 2010).

62.8% were 1 seeds.
30.2% were 2 seeds.
4.7% were 3 seeds. (us last year and Purdue in 2019)
2.3% were 4 seeds.

Also: amongst those 43 teams, 20 of them have an asterisk (meaning top 5 offense and between 20-45 defensively; translates to elite offense and “good enough” defense).

Of those 20 teams:

40% were 1 seeds
45% were 2 seeds
10% were 3 seeds
5% were 4 seeds

- - -

The gist: when you have a top 5 offense and a defense that’s at least “good enough,” you are very likely to be a 1 or 2 seed.

Rare occasion that you fall to a 3 seed (like us last year), but honestly that’s still not terrible.
Our record in close games was presumably the reason for us being a 3-seed despite being top-8 in efficiency metrics. Those metrics don't care much if you win by 1 or lose by 1, but the selection/seeding committee probably does.
 
#570      
Yes, but I was talking about floors. As a floor, I don’t see us worse than a top 5 offense and a top 40 defense (unless things completely fall off the rails).

But most of all I’m trying to point out the security that comes with being elite offensively (top 5).

- - -

I actually re-checked the data, and the concept applies all the way to top 5 O / top 45 D.

*Purdue (2 seed)
*Illinois (3 seed)
Michigan (1 seed)
Auburn (1 seed)
*Alabama (2 seed)
Duke (1 seed)
Florida (1 seed)
UConn (1 seed)
Purdue (1 seed)
*Arizona (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
Houston (2 seed)
*Baylor (1 seed)
Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Tennessee (2 seed)
Virginia (1 seed)
*Purdue (3 seed)
MSU (2 seed)
*Villanova (1 seed)
Purdue (2 seed)
Duke (2 seed)
*Kansas (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Kentucky (4 seed)
*Michigan State (2 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Wisconsin (1 seed)
*Duke (1 seed)
Villanova (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (2 seed)
*Wisconsin (2 seed)
Indiana (1 seed)
*Gonzaga (1 seed)
*Duke (2 seed)
Kentucky (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
*Pitt (1 seed)
Kansas (1 seed)
Duke (1 seed)


So, for the recap: there’s 43 teams here who have entered the tournament with at least a top 5 offense and top 45 defense (since 2010).

62.8% were 1 seeds.
30.2% were 2 seeds.
4.7% were 3 seeds. (us last year and Purdue in 2019)
2.3% were 4 seeds.

Also: amongst those 43 teams, 20 of them have an asterisk (meaning top 5 offense and between 20-45 defensively; translates to elite offense and “good enough” defense).

Of those 20 teams:

40% were 1 seeds
45% were 2 seeds
10% were 3 seeds
5% were 4 seeds

- - -

The gist: when you have a top 5 offense and a defense that’s at least “good enough,” you are very likely to be a 1 or 2 seed.

Rare occasion that you fall to a 3 seed (like us last year), but honestly that’s still not terrible.
There are a lot of math junkies here trying to calculate basketball championships as though it's an algorithm. While there is certainly some math involved, when you're at the top of the sport, and we are, it the becomes more about intangibles, and match ups, finding a way to be bullet-proof on both sides of the floor.

Reality is that the offense and style of play will have to make up for the defense in all likelihood, and then we'll have to have the coaching and gamers/clutchness to win the whole thing. What has been pretty clear the last 3 years is that the best coaches in the game have been in the national championship game. Dusty, Hurley, Golden, Painter, Sampson. This is why I think you need Brad to be more than one gear. Last year, Dusty threw full court pressure on UConn and it totally disturbed their pace and sets. You need wrinkles, ways to adjust and maybe grab that 6-0 run. Winning the title isn't going to be a 2+2=4 thing. Once you get to the Elite 8, Final 4, it's not going to be math.

Florida was a 1 seed and lost to Iowa. Hurley got to the Final and played Michigan tougher than Arizona, with a less talented team than Duke. How do you avoid the upset and have the edge in tight tourney games? Avoiding upsets is usually about having a high floor, elite front court. Winning tight games against top teams is usually about guardplay and coaching. I'd say for us to be bulletproof, the bigger variable is Coleman and Vaaks really developing into a comprehensive backcourt and Brad's coaching continuing to evolve. The frontcourt has already proven to be F4 worthy and they all have an additional year.
 
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#571      
There are a lot of math junkies here trying to calculate basketball championships as though it's an algorithm. While there is certainly some math involved, when you're at the top of the sport, and we are, it the becomes more about intangibles, and match ups, finding a way to be bullet-proof on both sides of the floor.

Reality is that the offense and style of play will have to make up for the defense in all likelihood, and then we'll have to have the coaching and gamers/clutchness to win the whole thing. What has been pretty clear the last 3 years is that the best coaches in the game have been in the national championship game. Dusty, Hurley, Golden, Painter, Sampson. This is why I think you need Brad to be more than one gear. Last year, Dusty threw full court pressure on UConn and it totally disturbed their pace and sets. You need wrinkles, ways to adjust and maybe grab that 6-0 run. Winning the title isn't going to be a 2+2=4 thing. Once you get to the Elite 8, Final 4, it's not going to be math.

Florida was a 1 seed and lost to Iowa. Hurley got to the Final and played Michigan tougher than Arizona, with a less talented team than Duke. How do you avoid the upset and have the edge in tight tourney games? Avoiding upsets is usually about having a high floor, elite front court. Winning tight games against top teams is usually about guardplay and coaching. I'd say for us to be bulletproof, the bigger variable is Coleman and Vaaks really developing into a comprehensive backcourt and Brad's coaching continuing to evolve. The frontcourt has already proven to be F4 worthy and they all have an additional year.
One could argue many of those things are part of a good algorithm ;)

Except clutchness. That hasn't been found to be a repeatable skill in the NBA, so I doubt it's really a thing in the NCAA either.
 
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#572      
Last 10 Cousy winners and height:

YearPlayerCollegeListed Height
2026Darius Acuff Jr.Arkansas6'2"
2025Braden SmithPurdue6'0"
2024Tristen NewtonUConn6'5"
2023Markquis NowellKansas State5'8" (measured 5'7" pro)
2022Collin GillespieVillanova6'3" (measured 6'1" pro)
2021Ayo DosunmuIllinois6'5"
2020Payton PritchardOregon6'2"
2019Ja MorantMurray State6'3"
2018Jalen BrunsonVillanova6'3"
2017Frank Mason IIIKansas5'11"
False equivalence. These players aren’t good because of their height, they’re good in spite of it. If the players listed had the same skills and were a few inches taller, they’d be even better. Finding tall players with guard skills is a good thing, acrually.
 
#574      
That’s great to see the guys coming back- you know the love for the program is strong and we’re building the right culture when you see NBA guys coming back to work out in the summer
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My heart's a melting. I'll forever be fond of this 2024-2027 crew. Thank you Kylan for being our captain. Thank you Dre for giving us that downhill pressure left void following TSJ's departure. Thank you, thank youuu Keaton. You will be the reason we lock down the Pettigrews and Bowman Jr's of the world.

20 years after 2005 we're back to starting the season as a true title contender.
 
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