Purdue's defense IS terrible, but our defense will be going against Purdue's offense, not their defense. And Purdue's offense is, statistically, good (almost identical yards per game as us.)
Illinois vs Purdue, Saturday, October 3rd, 3:15pm CT, BTN
It gives me hope that ND shut them down, and we moved the ball well against OSU.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
ND is shutting down everyone. They played 3 B1G teams, and Wisconsin scored the most on Notre Dame's defense in Week 1 (13 points). So Notre Dame shutting down Purdue's offense does not really give me much additional hope in this game, when our defense has mightily struggled for the most part all season.
Offense is not the problem for Illinois. The hope that I actually have is that the communication improves for the defensive unit, and that they come out on fire with the leadership change. Purdue will move the ball against Illinois, but hopefully we see the Illini defense forcing field goals and not allowing touchdowns. That will likely be the difference in the end, as we should be able to score enough points.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yards per game isn't a stat I'd use to measure offensive efficiency. It doesn't adjust for opponent or number of plays or anything else that tells whether or not an offense is good.
SP+ has Purdue's offense ranked #57, which is average. Ours is #24, above average to good.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Based on the games I have been able to watch, the Big Ten opponents on our schedule have separated themselves into the following subjective, Illini-centric tiers. I'm included whether it's a home or away game for context, and each category is in descending order.
1) They are way out of our league, and we don't (didn't) stand a chance.
- at Ohio State
2) Based on what I have seen so far, we'd need to improve a LOT to win.
- vs. Iowa
- vs. Oregon
3A) Still a bit of a mystery ... but I would currently feel pessimistic.
- at Northwestern
- at UCLA
- vs. Nebraska
3B) Still a bit of a mystery ... but they have not looked materially better than we have (and possibly even worse).
- at Michigan State
- at Maryland
- vs. Purdue
So taking these worth a grain of salt but using these categories, some notes...
1) Without our defense really stepping it up, you could argue we are staring down a 3-6 conference record and thus a 5-7 overall record and no bowl game for the first time since 2023. That would REALLY sting.
2) Just focusing on us for a second, I think putting in a truly impressive performance vs. Purdue (i.e., our offense continues to look good AND our defense is able to play well enough to ensure a blowout win), these categories can really start to shift. Given we get Nebraska at home, UCLA's home field advantage is always pretty bad and that the Northwestern away game is always at least a neutral site crowd setup ... stealing one or more of those Tier 3A games really becomes realistic. Go 2-1 in those games and sweep 3B, and you are all of a sudden in 7-5 territory and hoping for an Oregon or Iowa upset to turn in another great season, given the circumstances.
3) It goes without saying that we need to see more of every team. If we put on our homer glasses for a second, we lost one nail biter to Duke, handily beat the inferior competition on our schedule and (while we obviously lost by a lot in the end) our offense tested the defense of the Big Ten title favorite in their house in a way no offense has so far. And even in that last game, the defense showed SOME signs of improvement, at least from a toughness perspective. So maybe Maryland and Michigan State are actually just REALLY bad (and thus probable wins for us) rather than UCLA and Nebraska being way better than we thought (and thus neither or out of reach).
4) Bottom line, there is nothing that has happened to us yet on paper that prevents us turning this into a good season, even the Duke loss at home ... but losing to this Purdue team on our home field in a Homecoming game after getting stomped at OSU and firing our DC would DEFINITELY fit that bill for me, lol. Win this one or die trying to salvage any hope at a bowl, and win it comfortably (while looking good) to feel like we have this train back on the tracks.
1) They are way out of our league, and we don't (didn't) stand a chance.
- at Ohio State
2) Based on what I have seen so far, we'd need to improve a LOT to win.
- vs. Iowa
- vs. Oregon
3A) Still a bit of a mystery ... but I would currently feel pessimistic.
- at Northwestern
- at UCLA
- vs. Nebraska
3B) Still a bit of a mystery ... but they have not looked materially better than we have (and possibly even worse).
- at Michigan State
- at Maryland
- vs. Purdue
So taking these worth a grain of salt but using these categories, some notes...
1) Without our defense really stepping it up, you could argue we are staring down a 3-6 conference record and thus a 5-7 overall record and no bowl game for the first time since 2023. That would REALLY sting.
2) Just focusing on us for a second, I think putting in a truly impressive performance vs. Purdue (i.e., our offense continues to look good AND our defense is able to play well enough to ensure a blowout win), these categories can really start to shift. Given we get Nebraska at home, UCLA's home field advantage is always pretty bad and that the Northwestern away game is always at least a neutral site crowd setup ... stealing one or more of those Tier 3A games really becomes realistic. Go 2-1 in those games and sweep 3B, and you are all of a sudden in 7-5 territory and hoping for an Oregon or Iowa upset to turn in another great season, given the circumstances.
3) It goes without saying that we need to see more of every team. If we put on our homer glasses for a second, we lost one nail biter to Duke, handily beat the inferior competition on our schedule and (while we obviously lost by a lot in the end) our offense tested the defense of the Big Ten title favorite in their house in a way no offense has so far. And even in that last game, the defense showed SOME signs of improvement, at least from a toughness perspective. So maybe Maryland and Michigan State are actually just REALLY bad (and thus probable wins for us) rather than UCLA and Nebraska being way better than we thought (and thus neither or out of reach).
4) Bottom line, there is nothing that has happened to us yet on paper that prevents us turning this into a good season, even the Duke loss at home ... but losing to this Purdue team on our home field in a Homecoming game after getting stomped at OSU and firing our DC would DEFINITELY fit that bill for me, lol. Win this one or die trying to salvage any hope at a bowl, and win it comfortably (while looking good) to feel like we have this train back on the tracks.
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
P4+ND= 68 schools
Illini 24th best offense is 35 percentile so top 1/3
Purdue 57th best offense is 79 percentile so bottom 4/5
I listened to the Purdue analyst on Podcast. He says Purdue is much worse than Illini
Purdue is 8th in the nation in EPA per pass. They’re not one of the worst teams in the country offensively.
In the final analysis, this can be primarily be blamed on a low NIL budget compared to other teams especially the top tier.. If this does not change drastically in the future, this year's results will be a harbinger of bad things to come..