Purdue's defense IS terrible, but our defense will be going against Purdue's offense, not their defense. And Purdue's offense is, statistically, good (almost identical yards per game as us.)
Illinois vs Purdue, Saturday, October 3rd, 3:15pm CT, BTN
It gives me hope that ND shut them down, and we moved the ball well against OSU.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
ND is shutting down everyone. They played 3 B1G teams, and Wisconsin scored the most on Notre Dame's defense in Week 1 (13 points). So Notre Dame shutting down Purdue's offense does not really give me much additional hope in this game, when our defense has mightily struggled for the most part all season.
Offense is not the problem for Illinois. The hope that I actually have is that the communication improves for the defensive unit, and that they come out on fire with the leadership change. Purdue will move the ball against Illinois, but hopefully we see the Illini defense forcing field goals and not allowing touchdowns. That will likely be the difference in the end, as we should be able to score enough points.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yards per game isn't a stat I'd use to measure offensive efficiency. It doesn't adjust for opponent or number of plays or anything else that tells whether or not an offense is good.
SP+ has Purdue's offense ranked #57, which is average. Ours is #24, above average to good.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Based on the games I have been able to watch, the Big Ten opponents on our schedule have separated themselves into the following subjective, Illini-centric tiers. I'm included whether it's a home or away game for context, and each category is in descending order.
1) They are way out of our league, and we don't (didn't) stand a chance.
- at Ohio State
2) Based on what I have seen so far, we'd need to improve a LOT to win.
- vs. Iowa
- vs. Oregon
3A) Still a bit of a mystery ... but I would currently feel pessimistic.
- at Northwestern
- at UCLA
- vs. Nebraska
3B) Still a bit of a mystery ... but they have not looked materially better than we have (and possibly even worse).
- at Michigan State
- at Maryland
- vs. Purdue
So taking these worth a grain of salt but using these categories, some notes...
1) Without our defense really stepping it up, you could argue we are staring down a 3-6 conference record and thus a 5-7 overall record and no bowl game for the first time since 2023. That would REALLY sting.
2) Just focusing on us for a second, I think putting in a truly impressive performance vs. Purdue (i.e., our offense continues to look good AND our defense is able to play well enough to ensure a blowout win), these categories can really start to shift. Given we get Nebraska at home, UCLA's home field advantage is always pretty bad and that the Northwestern away game is always at least a neutral site crowd setup ... stealing one or more of those Tier 3A games really becomes realistic. Go 2-1 in those games and sweep 3B, and you are all of a sudden in 7-5 territory and hoping for an Oregon or Iowa upset to turn in another great season, given the circumstances.
3) It goes without saying that we need to see more of every team. If we put on our homer glasses for a second, we lost one nail biter to Duke, handily beat the inferior competition on our schedule and (while we obviously lost by a lot in the end) our offense tested the defense of the Big Ten title favorite in their house in a way no offense has so far. And even in that last game, the defense showed SOME signs of improvement, at least from a toughness perspective. So maybe Maryland and Michigan State are actually just REALLY bad (and thus probable wins for us) rather than UCLA and Nebraska being way better than we thought (and thus neither or out of reach).
4) Bottom line, there is nothing that has happened to us yet on paper that prevents us turning this into a good season, even the Duke loss at home ... but losing to this Purdue team on our home field in a Homecoming game after getting stomped at OSU and firing our DC would DEFINITELY fit that bill for me, lol. Win this one or die trying to salvage any hope at a bowl, and win it comfortably (while looking good) to feel like we have this train back on the tracks.
1) They are way out of our league, and we don't (didn't) stand a chance.
- at Ohio State
2) Based on what I have seen so far, we'd need to improve a LOT to win.
- vs. Iowa
- vs. Oregon
3A) Still a bit of a mystery ... but I would currently feel pessimistic.
- at Northwestern
- at UCLA
- vs. Nebraska
3B) Still a bit of a mystery ... but they have not looked materially better than we have (and possibly even worse).
- at Michigan State
- at Maryland
- vs. Purdue
So taking these worth a grain of salt but using these categories, some notes...
1) Without our defense really stepping it up, you could argue we are staring down a 3-6 conference record and thus a 5-7 overall record and no bowl game for the first time since 2023. That would REALLY sting.
2) Just focusing on us for a second, I think putting in a truly impressive performance vs. Purdue (i.e., our offense continues to look good AND our defense is able to play well enough to ensure a blowout win), these categories can really start to shift. Given we get Nebraska at home, UCLA's home field advantage is always pretty bad and that the Northwestern away game is always at least a neutral site crowd setup ... stealing one or more of those Tier 3A games really becomes realistic. Go 2-1 in those games and sweep 3B, and you are all of a sudden in 7-5 territory and hoping for an Oregon or Iowa upset to turn in another great season, given the circumstances.
3) It goes without saying that we need to see more of every team. If we put on our homer glasses for a second, we lost one nail biter to Duke, handily beat the inferior competition on our schedule and (while we obviously lost by a lot in the end) our offense tested the defense of the Big Ten title favorite in their house in a way no offense has so far. And even in that last game, the defense showed SOME signs of improvement, at least from a toughness perspective. So maybe Maryland and Michigan State are actually just REALLY bad (and thus probable wins for us) rather than UCLA and Nebraska being way better than we thought (and thus neither or out of reach).
4) Bottom line, there is nothing that has happened to us yet on paper that prevents us turning this into a good season, even the Duke loss at home ... but losing to this Purdue team on our home field in a Homecoming game after getting stomped at OSU and firing our DC would DEFINITELY fit that bill for me, lol. Win this one or die trying to salvage any hope at a bowl, and win it comfortably (while looking good) to feel like we have this train back on the tracks.
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
P4+ND= 68 schools
Illini 24th best offense is 35 percentile so top 1/3
Purdue 57th best offense is 79 percentile so bottom 4/5
I listened to the Purdue analyst on Podcast. He says Purdue is much worse than Illini
Purdue is 8th in the nation in EPA per pass. They’re not one of the worst teams in the country offensively.
In the final analysis, this can be primarily be blamed on a low NIL budget compared to other teams especially the top tier.. If this does not change drastically in the future, this year's results will be a harbinger of bad things to come..
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Well done! I happen to very much agree with this, particularly being on a current trajectory for a 5-7 finish --- based upon what we've thus far seen on the field across the Big Ten.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This is one of the best breakdowns of the final 2/3 season on this board. The only real change I have on your board is moving @UCLA to area 2 (maybe call it 2b). The Illini will need to improve quite a bit to pull off that "upset" (as of today).
I do agree though, if I had to do a prediction, we are anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5 if we are in the status quo. That is why these next two games are so important. If we split these two games, I think there is a very good chance that we are playing in Evanston to get to 6-6 or even 5-7.
The real plus is that the Oregon and Iowa games are at home. That alone might swing a bit of momentum in our direction.
As I have said repeatedly though, it starts on Saturday!
The good news: Jeremiah Smith isn’t going to wear black and gold Saturday.
The bad news: Johnny Newton and Gabe Jacas aren’t wearing orange and blue either.
I still really like us in this. This offense has another gear. Getting our guards back should help. Platt might be the one to unlock it.
All the doom and gloom won’t hold me back from believing this team can win 8 games.
The bad news: Johnny Newton and Gabe Jacas aren’t wearing orange and blue either.
I still really like us in this. This offense has another gear. Getting our guards back should help. Platt might be the one to unlock it.
All the doom and gloom won’t hold me back from believing this team can win 8 games.
What happened to Kaden Feagin? I must have missed it.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Couldn't agree more! I just think winning Saturday (or more accurately avoiding losing...) is essential for this team's confidence. Bret just made a very bold, midseason move to fire the defense's leader, and I feel like that was a statement to our players that he thinks they can be a better defense THIS season (i.e., with the players we have) under different leadership. If the team can go out and beat Purdue convincingly, we'd go into East Lansing with a lot of confidence and a new vibe, and then we can really establish some momentum. I know coaches take it "one week at a time" and all, but I would look at salvaging our season in these stages.
1) Go 2-0 vs. Purdue and at Michigan State. Our offense can win us both of these games if the defense can turn in two serviceable performances. The Purdue win is about "stopping the bleeding," and then the MSU win serves as a true step forward. That takes us into our bye week at 4-2 (2-1), and we have an extra week to prepare for a massive home game vs. Oregon.
2) Throw the kitchen sink at the Ducks and AT LEAST look competitive ... and see what happens. Even if we lose a close one and fall to 4-3 (2-2), we've proven we can hang with a good football team, and the games in front of us look so much more manageable. A win is obviously a massive momentum shift for the season, but we'll still be okay as long as we don't get embarrassed at home.
3) This could be the toughest goal, but sweep at Maryland and vs. Nebraska to get to 6-3 (4-2). Any road game is no gimme and Nebraska looked good last week, but I truly believe we can win these two (again, provided the defense can continue to improve).
4) The UCLA game gives me pause, but again ... just gotta look like you belong on the field. A win to get to 7-3 (5-2) is obviously massive, but even if we lose without getting embarrassed, we are at 6-4 (4-3) heading into our final two games vs. two rival teams.
5) If you can do #1-4 (not easy by any means but hardly impossible!), you at least put yourself in the position for the last two games of the season to really matter. We'd already have bowl eligibility, and I think our offense could give us a shot in at least one of (A) Iowa at home in what is HOPEFULLY a good environment that late in the year and (B) a Northwestern road game where the stands will be full of plenty of orange.
Like you said, it ALL starts Saturday ... it's practically a new season. Win these next two, and fans can at least start to dream about the Oregon upset and feel like we are semi-on track for a "successful season" again.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
FPI has our projected final record at 5.6 with a 50% chance of winning 6 or more and a 50% chance of winning 5 or less.
So I’d be unbelievably happy with:
Wins:
Purdue
Michigan St
Maryland
Nebraska
Northwestern
Losses:
Oregon
UCLA
Iowa
Final record: 7-5
That basically means: winning the final 3 games we’ll be favored in and getting two upsets.
I’m terrified of Nebraska and Northwestern both getting added to the loss list and going 5-7.
I know the metrics hate the defense and it also hasn’t passed the eye test so far. But I’m still optimistic for this season because as bad as the defense has been, we’ve still been right there in both of our losses.
Duke might have been the worst possible matchup for us at the worst possible time. On its best days, this defense will struggle to stop the run. And we clearly weren’t tackling well early in the season for whatever reason (Bret says we didn’t practice tackling to avoid injuries and I believe him. And we face a RB who led the nation in missed tackles as a frosh. And I tend to agree with Roberts assessment that the defense did “enough” (think they forced 4 punts?) and the offense had just enough mistakes to lose the game. But that’s a game I think we feel let slip away against maybe an 8-9 win team.
And @Ohio State is maybe the # 1 “not a chance” game in the BIG, at least for teams with our talent level/NIL. And yet we put up 450 yards of offense and were a couple of plays away from hanging 30 and making things interesting.
I guess my point is, as bad as the defense has been we haven’t been blown out at all. At this point last year we had been absolutely drubbed by Indiana and were on our way to get shellacked by Washington. And we won 9 games last year with those defeats. We haven’t had a “we don’t even belong” game yet, and probably should be 3-1.
We don’t need much to improve on defense to get us back on track to win 7-8 games, and I think Bret can make enough tweaks to get us there.
Duke might have been the worst possible matchup for us at the worst possible time. On its best days, this defense will struggle to stop the run. And we clearly weren’t tackling well early in the season for whatever reason (Bret says we didn’t practice tackling to avoid injuries and I believe him. And we face a RB who led the nation in missed tackles as a frosh. And I tend to agree with Roberts assessment that the defense did “enough” (think they forced 4 punts?) and the offense had just enough mistakes to lose the game. But that’s a game I think we feel let slip away against maybe an 8-9 win team.
And @Ohio State is maybe the # 1 “not a chance” game in the BIG, at least for teams with our talent level/NIL. And yet we put up 450 yards of offense and were a couple of plays away from hanging 30 and making things interesting.
I guess my point is, as bad as the defense has been we haven’t been blown out at all. At this point last year we had been absolutely drubbed by Indiana and were on our way to get shellacked by Washington. And we won 9 games last year with those defeats. We haven’t had a “we don’t even belong” game yet, and probably should be 3-1.
We don’t need much to improve on defense to get us back on track to win 7-8 games, and I think Bret can make enough tweaks to get us there.
I get that but their defense is worse than ours if that makes any sense. I believe can shut them down.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Prediction time. Had to wait and see how things settled just a bit. I tend to think that Robert nailed it on "Light the I," so I'm taking Hauck's departure as a net good thing. These two teams seem to be fairly comparable, but we have home field and hopefully a San Diego Padre-like home crowd advantage.
45 ILLINI
37 Boilers
I don't think we cover. And go with the over on this one. Sure hoping we see some positives from the defense.
[4-0 vs. the spread; 3-1 predicting the winner, straight up. Thought we'd beat Duke at home.]
45 ILLINI
37 Boilers
I don't think we cover. And go with the over on this one. Sure hoping we see some positives from the defense.
[4-0 vs. the spread; 3-1 predicting the winner, straight up. Thought we'd beat Duke at home.]
1) You said Illinois’s defense “needs to stand up against one of the worst teams in the country.”
2) Now you're talking about Purdue's defense being what makes them so bad and one of the worst teams; not so much their offense.
3) However, what they are on defense should have absolutely ZERO to do with what we should expect from our defense, because our defense won't play a single snap against their defense.
Last edited:
Updated Gies Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch for Purdue and remaining home games:
As I mentioned the other day, the Purdue will be an announced sellout before gametime Saturday. The ticket availability is extremely low and I'm sort of surprised they haven't announced sellout quite yet. That will probably come today.
As for the remaining games, Oregon will probably sell out but I'm not sure either Nebraska or Iowa will quite get there. Both of these teams will bring strong visiting crowds though, so who knows.
What I'm keeping my eye on is if our average attendance for the season finished above last year's 58,351 per game. These season is disadvantaged by hosting two non-Saturday home games (UAB and Nebraska). Last year had three non-maurqee opponents in November. Sellouts the next two weeks would help the cause.
As I mentioned the other day, the Purdue will be an announced sellout before gametime Saturday. The ticket availability is extremely low and I'm sort of surprised they haven't announced sellout quite yet. That will probably come today.
As for the remaining games, Oregon will probably sell out but I'm not sure either Nebraska or Iowa will quite get there. Both of these teams will bring strong visiting crowds though, so who knows.
What I'm keeping my eye on is if our average attendance for the season finished above last year's 58,351 per game. These season is disadvantaged by hosting two non-Saturday home games (UAB and Nebraska). Last year had three non-maurqee opponents in November. Sellouts the next two weeks would help the cause.