Bowls/CFP Projections

#101      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
The problem is that Oregon would also be 9-3. We would have the head to head win, but Oregon would likely look better to the committee. That Purdue loss would really hurt us there.

Hard to see the committee taking two 9-3 teams from the B1G. Oregon winning out is not good for Illinois.
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I think we would deserve that slot over Oregon with the head-to-head win.

The problem is we probably wouldn't deserve it over a BYU or Wake Forest.

We are way, way out on the limb of hypothetical here though. The CFP and the Frisco Football Classic is quite a range of postseason projections.
 
#102      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
I think we would deserve that slot over Oregon with the head-to-head win.

The problem is we probably wouldn't deserve it over a BYU or Wake Forest.

We are way, way out on the limb of hypothetical here though. The CFP and the Frisco Football Classic is quite a range of postseason projections.
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Agree 100% here. If Illini pull off major upset Friday night, the calculus changes substantially.

FWIW, I think that Oregon loses one of their next 3 games.

Illinois simply needs to take care of their own business. Get to 9-3, and Citrus Bowl or ReliaQuest being the floor would be incredible for the season. 7-5 would also be a very good season too.
 
#103      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
Agree 100% here. If Illini pull off major upset Friday night, the calculus changes substantially.

FWIW, I think that Oregon loses one of their next 3 games.

Illinois simply needs to take care of their own business. Get to 9-3, and Citrus Bowl or ReliaQuest being the floor would be incredible for the season. 7-5 would also be a very good season too.
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Now that we have our bowl eligibility, my next request is spoiling the Mildcats party in their white elephant European soccer stadium.
 
#104      
lstewart53x3
In terms of our rooting interests over the next few weeks, I imagine it goes something like:

- Root for us to win every game and whatever else is needed for us to have an outside shot at the CFP.

- If we lose a game, which is likely, root for as many B1G teams as possible to make the CFP, which allows us to get into the best possible bowl.

Anything I’m missing?
 
#105      
Greensboro
fyi... Big Ten Conf. Playoff Simulator

    • Head-to-head regular season record: (Only applies if all tied teams played each other; in multi-team ties, it is used if one team swept all others involved).
    • Record against all common conference opponents:
    • Record against common opponents ordered by finish: Evaluated based on their record against common opponents starting with the highest-placed common opponent in the conference standings and working down.
    • Cumulative conference winning percentage: The combined conference winning percentage of all conference opponents each tied team played (strength of schedule).
    • SportSource Analytics Rating Score: The highest ranking by the SportSource Analytics rating metric following the regular season.
    • Random draw: A random draw conducted by the Big Ten Commissioner or a designee
 
#106      
BryceHopkins
lstewart53x3 said:
In terms of our rooting interests over the next few weeks, I imagine it goes something like:

- Root for us to win every game and whatever else is needed for us to have an outside shot at the CFP.

- If we lose a game, which is likely, root for as many B1G teams as possible to make the CFP, which allows us to get into the best possible bowl.

Anything I’m missing?
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You forgot about rooting against Michigan... Always be rooting against Michigan
 
#107      
Greensboro
the scenario that seems to work for us is tie with only UCLA & Oregon (Throw wisconsin and or OSU into the mix and one of UCLA/Oregon/OSU takes the second conference slot)
 
#109      
RabidDawgClassic
TheChief4Life said:
Neither of these are sufficient enough to secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship (AssemblyHallForever is close). Tie breakers are weird in the Big Ten. Especially if you have multiple teams that transitively cancel wins out. And unfortunately, Illinois is the loser in a lot of those tiebreakers. The only tie breakers they win against are ones that directly compare Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA, and only if Illinois beats UCLA.

The way I can realistically see Illinois making the championship is if the following happen:
1. Illinois wins out. Obviously a must. And this might be the least realistic of the following things.
2. Indiana beats USC this week.
3. USC beats UCLA in the final game.
4. Wisconsin needs to lose one more game to any of Maryland, Purdue, or Minnesota.
5. OSU just needs to lose one more game to any of Northwestern, Nebraska, or Michigan.

If this were to happen, Indiana would be 8-1, and Illinois would be 7-2 along with only UCLA and Oregon. We win any tie breaker involving those three in that regard.

There could be other really weird tiebreakers that could possibly get us in, but with three weeks left, there's still a lot of possibilities left, and I don't want to figure out 100 million scenarios.
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Yup… this scenario works. Here’s the B1G football simulator to play with various scenarios.

B1G Football Simulator

Other than Illinois winning out, I think the toughest part is Wisconsin losing another game. They have Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota (at Camp Randall) left.

OSU is in a free fall without their star QB, but who’s gonna give them that third loss? An Aiden Chiles-less Northwestern? The comically inept Nebraska? The offensively-challenged Wolverines? These will be interesting tests for both sides.

Even if USC beats Indiana, it’s unlikely the Hoosiers will will get a third conference loss, so the only realistic scenario is for us to tie with two loss Oregon and UCLA (who we’d own the tiebreakers over) and everyone else have three or more losses. There’s too many scenarios where multiple two-loss teams tying leaves us out of the championship game.

IMG_8118.jpeg
 
#110      
orangem
We could also get in without another Wiscy loss if Michigan beats UCLA at the Big House -- maybe the new Mich OC isn't utterly incompetent:


1. Indiana (8 - 1)
2. Illinois (7 - 2)
Above Oregon and Wisconsin based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
3. Oregon (7 - 2)
With Wisconsin, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Above Wisconsin based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5062).
4. Wisconsin (7 - 2)
With Oregon, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Below Oregon based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3951).
 
#111      
Mr. Tibbs
orangem said:
We could also get in without another Wiscy loss if Michigan beats UCLA at the Big House -- maybe the new Mich OC isn't utterly incompetent:


1. Indiana (8 - 1)
2. Illinois (7 - 2)
Above Oregon and Wisconsin based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
3. Oregon (7 - 2)
With Wisconsin, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Above Wisconsin based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5062).
4. Wisconsin (7 - 2)
With Oregon, below Illinois based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
Below Oregon based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3951).
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Fantasy Football Sjsu GIF by San Jose State Spartans
 
#115      
IlliniWu
illinoistradition said:
Two loss Alabama ahead of undefeated UCLA? I get strength of schedule, but come on!
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This is when I just stop paying attention even moreso. There's no way possible that should be, but again they do it every year so its hardly surprising. And the only metric they will keep throwing in is they're playing each other.

I see people keep saying look at the SEC record vs other conferences but that means nothing to the point that they have a 2 loss team ahead of an undefeated team in the B1G. If they lose they won't even fall that far.
 
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