2016-17 Preseason Predictions

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#79      

illininks

I
Shawnee, KS
illininks
haasi said:
Taking up Calvin's suggestion in the Wash U exhibition pregame thread, here's a thread for preseason predictions.

I'm going with: 23-8 (12-6). I think that would net us right around #20 in the country, a top 3-6 finish in conference, and a 5 seed in the tourney. I'll take whatever I'm smoking.

To be clear, I'd be quite happy with anything better than 20 wins and a comfortable tourney berth.


SE Missouri State - W
N. Ky. - W
McKendree - W
Detroit - W
Winthrop - W
West Virginia @ Barclays - L (#18 preseason)
FSU or Temple @ Barclays - W (I'm thinking over temple)
NC State - L (but would be a good win)
VCU @ Miami - W
IUPUI - W
Central Mich - W
BYU @ United Center - W
Mizzou @ STL - W (they're bad this year)

@Maryland - L
OSU - W
@IU - L
Michigan - W
Maryland - W
@Purdue - L
@Michigan - L
Iowa - W
@PSU - W
Wisconsin - L (hoping for a great win)
Minny - W
@NW - W
PSU - W
@Iowa - L
NW - W
@Neb - W
MSU - W
@Rutgers - W
Click to expand...

Not a bad expectation, here. Agree that we will probably drop a couple of non-con games. Doubt we go undefeated at home but - though you have 1 potential loss to Wisconsin - I think we might swap out a home and home loss with somebody like Iowa or Michigan.


But overall record +\- a game is pretty reasonable.
 
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#81      

haasi

haasi
New York
haasi
illininks said:
Not a bad expectation, here. Agree that we will probably drop a couple of non-con games. Doubt we go undefeated at home but - though you have 1 potential loss to Wisconsin - I think we might swap out a home and home loss with somebody like Iowa or Michigan.


But overall record +\- a game is pretty reasonable.
Click to expand...


A couple interesting things about the conference schedule, to the extent these haven't already been covered:

1. Our conference schedule gets way easier in February/March.
2. We have a favorable road schedule in conference. We play only 1 of the top 3 teams in the conference away. (Indiana, no Wisconsin or MSU). We play 4 of the bottom 5 (NW, Nebraska, Penn St., Rutgers). Then 4 road games against the middle of the conference (Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, with Iowa the most winnable of those and Purdue/Maryland the least). Because we have an unusually high number of winnable road games, we could end up with a better conference record than if we had the same schedule in reverse (easier home, tougher road schedule - greater likelihood of winning home games, but fewer games we have a solid chance of winning).

Moreover, a lot of those easier road games fall to the back of the schedule. Even though we're old, we're relatively inexperienced playing together, so I'd hope that we'll show more improvement over the course of the season than many other teams do (especially given our showing against Wash U).

All told - stacking easier road games later in the year may set up nicely for our record.
 
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