2017 Coaching Carousel

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 17, 2017

UofI08 said:
I don't think we're far off in our thoughts on Keatts. I brought up the tournament thing because tourney resumes are a thing people look at. At UNCW, Keatts has definitely done well and respectable. I'm just saying if he was at a mid-major, instead of low-major, he'd have a more realistic chance of making a tourney run.

Where we differ is the Hargrave resume. Obviously he had a lot of success but Hargrave is a prep school known for athletics. If he wasn't wildly successful there, that would be a huge concern.

I think Keatts has all the makings of a solid P5 coach, I just worry that a jump from 3 years in the CAA into B1G could be a huge deterrent to his coaching development. Ideally 2-4 years at a mid-major or low high-major would provide him the perfect seasoning for a big time job.

Certainly, I don't disagree with any of that commentary. But I think his resume at a CAA stop is about as good as you're going to find for a guy making upward movement. Whether you are comfortable with him making the leap here is an individual perspective, and there's not a right/wrong answer. I have no issues with any conclusion either way there.

I do think comparing him to Groce, for example, is (1) unfair, and (2) not based in the reality of their resumes. I just want analyses of him to be fair, regardless of the hire/pass conclusion drawn from the analyses.

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 17, 2017

UofI08 said:
Agree his resume is about as good as it gets for someone with such little experience. And I wouldn't be upset about a Keatts hire. He seems like a guy that would find a way to be successful wherever he ends up. It's just very risky, simply because of the huge jump, in my opinion.

Yeah I don't like the comparison to Groce and don't believe I've made any directly. I'm also hesitant to compare him to Self because Self had a more established resume by the time Illinois hired him. Who knows if Self would've been as succesful if he pulled him straight from Oral Roberts?

Someone else made the Groce comp, that wasn't pointed at you. And obviously you're not comparing Keatts directly to Self here, but it's worth mentioning Self's work at OR was really not that good at all (.505 win%), which is why he went to Tulsa from OR and not somewhere bigger. Keatts is basically as good as you'll find at the low-major level.

illiniboy60074 · Feb 17, 2017

eMitch said:
I was at ISU during those years. I still remember me and my roommate jumping around the living room pouring beer on each others head after Nick Anderson hit the buzzer beater at Indiana.

Plenty of good times but I can't name a single person who thought Henson was good coach at the time. They all thought he was a good guy, but he took a ton of blame for not living up to expectations.

I think a lot of us from the early Henson era thought he was a good enough coach. I always remember what was said by friends of mine at the Sigma Chi house where Steve Lanter lived. Lanter said that Henson was a good practice coach but a terrible game coach. Especially when it was a close game. If Henson called a time out during a close game he would often stand there and say nothing - sounded like an anxiety attack. Still, I would love to have a version of Henson now versus what we do have.

bert1991 · Feb 17, 2017

What chance (if any) do we have of landing Mark Smith (keeping in mind the new offers coming in every day)? Is our chance better or worse with John Groce as our HC (keeping in mind MS previous visits/ growing relationship with current signed recruits/ JG / other staff, etc.)

50%, 10%, 0%?
With JG?
With other? <insert potential candidate>

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 17, 2017

thebizz81 said:
Not once did I say Groce should stay solely for the incoming class, but you have to consider that when making a decision. If I were to tell you Dan Mueller was the best Whitman would pull and that he kept neither Tilmon nor Frazier, would you be as amped to just blindly fire the guy? I dont think that will transpire but I wouldn't, which is why speaking in absolutes does not make sense.

If Mueller is the best we can get then we've got bigger problems than just deciding whether to fire Groce or not. Also I'm pretty confident Whitman won't "blindly" do anything.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 17, 2017

bert1991 said:
What chance (if any) do we have of landing Mark Smith (keeping in mind the new offers coming in every day)? Is our chance better or worse with John Groce as our HC (keeping in mind MS previous visits/ growing relationship with current signed recruits/ JG / other staff, etc.)

50%, 10%, 0%?
With JG?
With other? <insert potential candidate>

With Groce: 0%
Without Groce: >0%

DoctorofJazz · Feb 17, 2017

illiniboy60074 said:
I think a lot of us from the early Henson era thought he was a good enough coach. I always remember what was said by friends of mine at the Sigma Chi house where Steve Lanter lived. Lanter said that Henson was a good practice coach but a terrible game coach. Especially when it was a close game. If Henson called a time out during a close game he would often stand there and say nothing - sounded like an anxiety attack. Still, I would love to have a version of Henson now versus what we do have.

I just watched the last couple of minutes of the 1989 NCAA Tourney game with Illinois and Michigan. I noticed that Lou almost never got animated on the sidelines.

I also seem to remember Henson's teams having problems with free throws, especially in close games.

Deleted member 29907 · Feb 17, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
Keatts' year 2 UNCW squad played Duke last year, a team that made the E8, and covered the spread against them. Obviously you want wins, but he still outperformed expectations against a really strong Duke team just last year..

They also lost to Radford last year. I also know a coach that knocked off a number 1 Indiana a few years back. Hmm...

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 17, 2017

VAIllini35 said:
They also lost to Radford last year. I also know a coach that knocked off a number 1 Indiana a few years back. Hmm...

Yeah, teams sometimes lose to teams they shouldn't, he still won the conference title last year as well. The point I was responding to was about if his team could compete in the tournament. They did.

KrushCow31 · Feb 17, 2017

I am fully on team Keatts. My only hesitation is just how bad the CAA has become now that VCU, Old Dominion, and George Mason have left. OD and George Mason left in 2013 the year or two before Keatts took over.

Greensboro · Feb 17, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Wouldn't be shocked if Keatts lands at NCST. Makes more sense than Illinois in terms of area connections, and Illinois isn't a significantly better job at this point.

Fighter of the Nightman said:
8 years of sucking doesn't change the potential of a job like Illinois THAT much.

One of these schools is 1 of 15 schools with 2 or more NCAA championships & it isn't us. I think many outside of this board would consider NCState the better job even before the 8 years of suck.

zpfled · Feb 17, 2017

Cuonzo Martin wants the Illinois job. He'll bring Charlie Moore with him.

KrushCow31 · Feb 17, 2017

Greensboro said:
One of these schools is 1 of 15 schools with 2 or more NCAA championships & it isn't us. I think many outside of this board would consider NCState the better job even before the 8 years of suck.

One of the articles already spoke about how NCState is a dangerous job because their fans have deluded and unrealistic expectations. If you can get fired midway through the season after making the tournament 6 of the last 8 years, including sweet 16s, what kind of job security is that?

zpfled · Feb 17, 2017

Kajagoogoo said:
Bold.

This is just my own speculation, but I think that Cuonzo would be able to land Mark Smith if he came to Illinois. I really hope that Frazier still comes to UI next year, but Moore and Smith would sure help if Frazier decommits.

Having a consistent backcourt featuring 2 legit PGs at all times would be so nice.

LisaMarie · Feb 17, 2017

There's hot list on the Scout NC State site with many of the same names discussed here...a handy reference of resumes, salaries and buyouts all in one place.

http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina-state/story/1755582-pack-pride-s-big-board

Illiniguy13 · Feb 17, 2017

zpfled said:
This is just my own speculation, but I think that Cuonzo would be able to land Mark Smith if he came to Illinois. I really hope that Frazier still comes to UI next year, but Moore and Smith would sure help if Frazier decommits.

Having a consistent backcourt featuring 2 legit PGs at all times would be so nice.

If the Cuonzo Martin package includes Charlie Moore & landing Smith, sign me up immediately. This may never happen and will probably be a moot point, but if it were to play out like that... I daresay there would be a log-jam at point guard...weird to think about.

StateFarmCenter · Feb 17, 2017

bert1991 said:
What chance (if any) do we have of landing Mark Smith (keeping in mind the new offers coming in every day)? Is our chance better or worse with John Groce as our HC (keeping in mind MS previous visits/ growing relationship with current signed recruits/ JG / other staff, etc.)

50%, 10%, 0%?
With JG?
With other? <insert potential candidate>

Cuonzo Martin is recruiting him and it's not to Cal. I'm not sure if it's to Illinois, but it's not to Cal.

zpfled · Feb 17, 2017

Illiniguy13 said:
If the Cuonzo Martin package includes Charlie Moore & landing Smith, sign me up immediately. This may never happen and will probably be a moot point, but if it were to play out like that... I daresay there would be a log-jam at point guard...weird to think about.

We could easily play 4 PGs who can all handle, score, and shoot (at least shoot enough to be guarded).

Calvin · Feb 17, 2017

LisaMarie said:
There's hot list on the Scout NC State site with many of the same names discussed here...a handy reference of resumes, salaries and buyouts all in one place.

http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina-state/story/1755582-pack-pride-s-big-board

Great synopsis, thanks for posting.

This makes me wonder even more how much money we'll pony up. NC State is looking at $3-4 mil. When have we ever paid anywhere close to that? A lot of these guys will move only for a substantial bump, and even then, you don't know if the school they're at will respond. I know JW is a different AD, but our history makes me cringe at the prospect of getting turned down by our A-list.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 17, 2017

Calvin said:
Great synopsis, thanks for posting.

This makes me wonder even more how much money we'll pony up. NC State is looking at $3-4 mil. When have we ever paid anywhere close to that? A lot of these guys will move only for a substantial bump, and even then, you don't know if the school they're at will respond. I know JW is a different AD, but our history makes me cringe at the prospect of getting turned down by our A-list.

Well, we paid a lot more for Lovie than we ever had for a football coach. The question is, was that an overall change in philosophy, or did we use up everything we had on that side of Kirby?

thebizz81 · Feb 17, 2017

UofI08 said:
If Dan Muller is the choice, I initially wouldn't be happy but would give him his fair shot. And if he were to make the tournament and win a game or 2 this year, he'd have a better resume than Groce did when he was hired here. Both are/were around 40 years old. 10+ year assistants at solid D1 programs. Where they differ is that Muller has a better conference performance as a head coach than Groce did. Better conference records and finishes. The only thing Groce had on Muller is NCAA tourney performance.

I honestly had never looked into Muller and still don't really think he's anywhere near the top of a list, or even on the list at all, but he's really not that terrible of an idea. 40 years old. Indiana and Illinois guy. Longtime assistant. Showed improvement, at least in conference, every year. Not far fetched at all to see him jumping to the P5 in the next few years.

Fair enough, I think most of us agree a change should be made, I guess I feel that debating whether a change should be made is a bit irrelevant because I for once actually trust that our AD will make the proper, well-informed decision.

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 17, 2017

Calvin said:
Great synopsis, thanks for posting.

This makes me wonder even more how much money we'll pony up. NC State is looking at $3-4 mil. When have we ever paid anywhere close to that? A lot of these guys will move only for a substantial bump, and even then, you don't know if the school they're at will respond. I know JW is a different AD, but our history makes me cringe at the prospect of getting turned down by our A-list.

I understand this thought process, but I can't emphasize enough how much of a cancer it has been on Illinois athletics not realizing its VAST inherent potential. RG was cheap as hell, and he ran Illinois athletics like a mom 'n' pop shop, and our results showed it: we might succeed in the short term from time to time, but we never grew. We never showed any inclination of wanting to be OSU or Michigan, and we should have.

Mike Thomas, for all of his faults, pushed the needle in the right direction on this. He probably overpaid for both Groce and Beckman, but it sent an important message: he wanted Illinois to be viewed as a big money school. A school with deep pockets that was committed to being big time in sports. Problem was, apparently, he didn't have the charisma or likability to get donors on board, and that was probably part of his ultimate demise. I believe Whitman has made the final step in this. With the Lovie hire, he showed not only a very impressive commitment to investing heavily in athletics but also in being able to get donors on board to pony up that cash.

I'm optimistic the days of "when have we ever spent money like that?" are long, long over.

Obelix · Feb 17, 2017

UofI08 said:
It really depends on which guy you really want. You're not gonna bump a guy from under a mil at a mid-major to 3 mil.

More depends on which guy you can really get. Illinois was wiling and had offered very good and fair packages to both Smart and Stevens. They turned down the job, irrespective of money.

DoctorofJazz · Feb 17, 2017

Obelix said:
More depends on which guy you can really get. Illinois was wiling and had offered very good and fair packages to both Smart and Stevens. They turned down the job, irrespective of money.

That's probably because they already knew about Mike Thomas.

DoctorofJazz · Feb 17, 2017

Fighter of the Nightman said:
I understand this thought process, but I can't emphasize enough how much of a cancer it has been on Illinois athletics not realizing its VAST inherent potential.

Mike Thomas, for all of his faults, pushed the needle in the right direction on this. He probably overpaid for both Groce and Beckman, but it sent an important message: he wanted Illinois to be viewed as a big money school. A school with deep pockets that was committed to being big time in sports. Problem was, apparently, he didn't have the charisma or likability to get donors on board, and that was probably part of his ultimate demise.

Thomas put the cart before the horse. When the product you are selling is mediocre at best to downright bad at the worst, all the chest thumping and ad campaigning in the world won't help fill seats or force people to watch.

2017 Coaching Carousel

LurkLongandProsper

LurkLongandProsper

illiniboy60074

bert1991

WesterveltVictoryCigar

OrangeAndBlues

DoctorofJazz

Deleted member 29907

Guest

LurkLongandProsper

KrushCow31

Former Krush Cow

Greensboro

zpfled

KrushCow31

Former Krush Cow

zpfled

LisaMarie

Illiniguy13

StateFarmCenter

zpfled

Calvin

WesterveltVictoryCigar

thebizz81

Fighter of the Nightman

Obelix

DoctorofJazz

DoctorofJazz