WV blowing out #1 Baylor now.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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Let me try to explain this thought process for you. The reason you would keep the current guy is that you have the opportunity for him to pan out like Henson. He was not considered much of a coach in the beginning (his in game decision making drove most fans nuts for a good part of his career at UI) but he learned the job and built a program at Illinois. If you take a shot at another young guy, it may just be OJT for him until you give up after a few more years and try someone else.
I am not saying you keep Groce no matter the final result this year. I agree with S&C on about 90% of his comments on this topic. I think you have to trust that JW will take into account all the circumstances, i.e. boosters, cash available, risks, performance this year, discussion with recruits and players, attendance, etc., to make the best decision for the university.
I think back on the coaches I have watched at UI, Schmidt, Barstow, Henson, Kruger, Self, Weber, Groce, and I would class Kruger and Self as exceptional, the rest not so much. So you could consider the odds to be about 2 in 7 of getting an exceptional coach, but we got those 2 when the program was on a much more solid footing than it is now, so maybe the odds are less. I think unless JW thinks he can drastically improve the odds to better than 50% (by offering lots of money, putting out feelers, etc.) he is going to be reluctant to make a move.
Two players, Deron and Luther.
The Rev had a cup of coffee in the NBA
Henson had 6 NCAA tourney appearances in 9 years including a Final Four at New Mexico St. so he was far more proven then Groce is now.
Henson was also trending upward quickly with huge recruiting victories in Chicago and elsewhere. Levi Cobb, Eddie Johnson and Derek Harper were program changing talents that signed on in first 5 years. Groce hasn't had that type of recruiting success.
Fanbase that doesn't know what good is anymore? Ok.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
You're right, that's too broad. The fanbase clearly does and is voting with its collective feet. Some of the message board and Twitter diehards, however...
Who is OJT?
Not in the 2005-06 season when Weber went 26-7. That season, after Powell graduated and went undrafted, he played in the CBA.
The Pontiff
- Chicago, IL
Exactly. This would definitely be a test of how willing some of these displeased big donors are to put their money where their mouth is. I know I'm probably being delusional and hence not realistic, but then again, that's not too off the rumored Bama package.
Still, I could see JW using the % success guarantee analysis to say, for instance, that he projects to get an 80% likelihood of success with Archie for $2MM less than a say a 90% one with Marshall. Is that extra 10% worth it? Prob not.
IlliniinNJ
- Cherry Hill, NJ
Any body notice how good WVU and Florida State actually are this year?
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
WVU is #2 in KenPom rankings right now, FSU #16. Our only albatross right now (KenPom wise) is the Winthrop loss.
You might be thinking of Augustine. He actually played in a number of games (27 according to wikipedia). The Rev was picked up on a roster, but I don't believe he actually played in a game. [sad face]
Anyone else of the opinion that if Groce played his youngsters (TJL and Kipper in particular) and they would be more willing to give Groce a shot at coming back as long as this year wasn't a complete embarrassment (meaning NIT-ish type season).
I'm also of the opinion that it actually gives him more of a chance of winning and making the tournament and saving his job, but that's a totally different subject.
I guess its the disconnect of Groce NOT seeing that which actually has me concerned about his ability to coach at this level.
I'm also of the opinion that it actually gives him more of a chance of winning and making the tournament and saving his job, but that's a totally different subject.
I guess its the disconnect of Groce NOT seeing that which actually has me concerned about his ability to coach at this level.
Yes, and I don't see it happening personally. If we had stronger booster support, sure. The BIG gives us a lot of guaranteed money, so you'd really have to have a strong fanbase to justify what I'll call, the anti-Guenther approach.
Without seeing actual revenue numbers, I think you can easily justify $2-3 mil for a coach here, and we're pretty certain Thomas was going to push above that for the right guy (which incidentally, how does Shaka Smart look today?). So I'll guess we're going to be looking at young guys we can bring in for $1 - $1.5, plus a few select guys that are already at that level or higher that we can drop another mil on. Anyone we're going to want to pilfer is going to be someone a school will defend, so you need enough ammo to win a bidding war. A guy making $3 mil already is not gonna happen IMO.
No, I don't believe that would be the case. Groce got a pass for last year because he was set up really well for this year and a shoe-in for the dance. Giving up on your roster in that context makes no sense.
My buddy who works kinda high up in the Alumni Association gave me a good insight the other day. I was saying this same thing, donors stepped up to pay Lovie, I'm sure they'll step up a Gregg Marshall type catch.
Not to dive into the factors behind this, but he said a lot of those "big donors" have left the State (ie: Chicago) in the last few years. He said it's significantly harder to get out of state donors to willingly offer up money when they've removed themselves from being able to physically come to games.
There's a level of donors that will never stop giving because it's just what you do when your bucket is that large; that's the Khan and Bob Dudley level. That's big money, but there's very few of those people. It's that next level of donor that Illinois is starting to lose, the very well off individual that can afford to give but have to be somewhat motivated to do so.
Groce has said publicly that TJL just wasn't ready coming off the injury. I wanted TJL to get minutes early to play his way into shape, adjust to college game speed and to learn as we go. JG has made his approach to playing time clear; he makes you earn it in practice.
Does that approach serve him well? IDK
We've just waited so long for a true point guard. We were told TJL was the real deal. Then we were asked to wait and watch TA and Tate again. No real upgrade at a crucial position.
That all said, it is still early in the BIG. Groce has said changes are coming. I want to see if TJL can help us because otherwise we look a lot like last year's team minus Nunn and plus TA, and I don't think that cuts it.
Does that approach serve him well? IDK
We've just waited so long for a true point guard. We were told TJL was the real deal. Then we were asked to wait and watch TA and Tate again. No real upgrade at a crucial position.
That all said, it is still early in the BIG. Groce has said changes are coming. I want to see if TJL can help us because otherwise we look a lot like last year's team minus Nunn and plus TA, and I don't think that cuts it.
A shoe-in?
I understand that he is good coach and probably worthy of blue blood interest. But would they see it that way? I think blue blood fans and admins would be underwhelmed by this guy coaching in this lower conference at this tiny midwest school. That's why Capel makes sense at Duke. He's a Duke guy through and through. I imagine somewhere out there is a comparable UNC guy through and through. I just don't know that Marshall is a legitimate contender for these blue blood jobs because he's not "one of them." I think that might help us in that regard.
Groce won early with players that quit on Weber. I think due to Weber's negativity.
Groce missed on a lot of top recruits and has looked mediocre as a result. I would have let him go a year ago based on his recruiting. Now his class looks like one of our best. I'm in for seeing if he can finally get it going.
Groce missed on a lot of top recruits and has looked mediocre as a result. I would have let him go a year ago based on his recruiting. Now his class looks like one of our best. I'm in for seeing if he can finally get it going.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
I think you are in a rather small minority, but good to have a different opinion.
Seems as though some of Groces' players have quietly given up on him, as well.
Roger Powell played in 3 NBA games for a total of 13 minutes and scored 2 points.
Another Illini NBA fun fact: the most NBA games played by an Illini player is an exact tie between Derek Harper and Eddie Johnson at 1199 games. They are jointly 40th all time in games played.
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