2017 Coaching Carousel

Obelix · Jan 11, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
The question really isn't "do we have a very talented and deep roster?" It's "should this roster be able to make the tournament?" To which I think the answer is unequivocally yes, especially in a down-ish B1G.

Sure, but I am commenting on statements that we have a very deep and talented team. We don't.

As far as talent, it is not just about rankings out of HS, but the skillset/ability that players exhibit once they get to college. Trey Burke is classic example. People bring him up as an example of great development by Beilein. I think Beilein is a good coach, he definitely deserves credit. But it is not that Trey Burke became the extreme talented player he was in the couple of months in pre-season at Michigan under Beilein. He was very talented from the get go. Same with Augustine, Deron, etc.

I do not believe our players are very talented. Some of them have inherent limitations, independent of rankings. You can look at the rest of the B1G and there is talent on most teams, independent of rankings.

PS. On a different point that some other poster brought up on Beilein. Really good coach, but he has had a couple of rough years lately, his star is not as shiny as it used to be.

MadSeason · Jan 11, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Agree we should make it but the state of the conference is not really relevant. We're not a title contender.

Nope and no real hopes of becoming one any time soon.

FiveStar · Jan 11, 2017

MadSeason said:
Nope and no real hopes of becoming one any time soon.

I think if we find the new, right coach, there is enough foundational potential in the returning group and new guys to trend up in the new coach's tenure. Especially because there is a fair amount of inexperienced talent, so the new coach could really mold the group in his ways. Soon as in next year, no. Soon as in 3 years, maybe.

Obelix · Jan 11, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
... in a down-ish B1G.

Totally separate point. I've watched quite a few B1G games, and so far it has been quite a unique year. Definitely not as top-heavy on the national scene, but quite a lot of improvement on the mid-lower echelon. So down-ish at the top, but pretty good on the average IMO.

dmac279 · Jan 11, 2017

FatGreg said:
I get where hermie is coming from. I go back and forth on this. I think there are a few coaches who are great at preparing game plans, making adjustments, and adapting to the strengths of their roster. Groce is not one of them, but I don't think that's a deal breaker; even the best coaches will struggle to win consistently on the basis of X's and O's if they're at a talent disadvantage. There are other coaches who run systems that allow them to compete with lesser talent (usually pace-dictating schemes - slowdown offense, WVU press, etc.). Groce runs a generic system without many imaginative wrinkles. Doesn't bother me, as it's one that's supported by plenty of good basketball minds and analytics models.

At the end of the day, I think that being a strategy whiz and tactical savant is overrated at the college level. I think that Groce is a below-average basketball mind relative to his B1G peers, but I don't think it matters a ton. In the college game, talent wins. This is especially true when you get talented kids in the program for multiple years, so they learn how to play technically sound defense, understand your philosophy, and develop a comfort level with each other.

I think that Groce is a good enough coach and leader of men to win with a deep, talented, experienced roster. Sure, in a vacuum I'd rather have Archie Miller or a few dozen other coaches, but the way Groce's recruiting has ticked up and considering the surfeit of downstate talent the next few years, the question is at least worth asking: if we win 19 games and miss the tourney this year, are we more likely to rebound as a program with Groce on the bench and potentially a roster that's loaded with 4-stars, plus 5-star guys like Tilmon and (maybe) Dosunmu and Okoro, or are we better off gambling on a promising up-and-coming coach but potentially losing Tilmon, Frazier, maybe JCL, and who knows what other players/recruits/relationships? I'm not saying there's not a right answer--I personally feel that if JG doesn't turn it around this year he's got to go--but the possible ramifications are disconcerting.

An example of what your talking about is Kentucky, roll the ball out and let them play.

7yearillini · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I'm wondering how much of that is expected contributions from Tilmon and Frazier as true freshmen.

I know I'm in the minority and will be attacked by the overwhelming army of statty people on here, but I don't get where it became gospel that freshman barely contribute and have to come off the bench and play a few minutes a game and sit behind juniors and seniors that are not good.

I am old, but not that old, and I recall plenty of non-mcd all-American freshmen that came in and played right away. It wasn't exactly our best team ever but my freshman year Rennie came in and ran the team as a freshman. Notree played a ton as a frosh. So did Kiwane and Sergio and Augustine. Even Bruce let DJ and, to a lesser degree, BP, play. And that's saying nothing of the higher rated guys like Deron and Dee.

I understand that just because there are examples doesn't mean every frosh will be an impact player, but it feels like freshmen haven't been given a serious shot since Bruce arrived.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 11, 2017

7yearillini said:
I know I'm in the minority and will be attacked by the overwhelming army of statty people on here, but I don't get where it became gospel that freshman barely contribute and have to come off the bench and play a few minutes a game and sit behind juniors and seniors that are not good.

Oh I'm not saying that. There are a range of potential freshman year outcomes for Tilmon, including him being a stud right away. The question is what is likely, and then how that likelihood affects the expected value of the rest of the team.

All I would say is that a lone superstar true freshman dragging an otherwise pedestrian roster kicking and screaming into the tournament is a precedent I can't think of off the top of my head. Michael Beasley at K-State is the closest I can think of, but he was the #1 recruit in the country and National Player of the Year, plus he had Bill Walker as another Top 10 guy beside him. And based on preseason projections that team was actually something of a disappointment.

I understand that just because there are examples doesn't mean every frosh will be an impact player, but it feels like freshmen haven't been given a serious shot since Bruce arrived.

If you want a coach who is going to throw freshmen into the fire before they've proven they're ready on the practice floor, you're going to need a coach other than John Groce.

We're not really spending a lot of time thinking about what next year looks like with Groce. Here's a sneak preview of this board a year from now:

zOMG WHY WON'T HE PLAY TILMON MORE!?!?! FINKE AND 5TH YEAR GUY X ARE TERRIBLE!!!!!!

IlliniInOK · Jan 11, 2017

MadSeason said:
Nope and no real hopes of becoming one any time soon.

If you squint, you might be able to see a B1G title contender in 2018-19 if you hit some recruiting home runs.

C: Tilmon (Soph - maybe he puts up a Meyers=type soph season), Finke (RS-Sr.)
F: Black (RS-Sr), DJW (SR), Kipper (Jr)
Wing: JCL (SR), AJ (Sr), DMW (Soph), Pickett (Soph), Mark Smith (Soph) or Tim Finke (Fr)
PG: TJL (Jr), Frazier (Soph), Ayo (Freshman)

(Above contingent on Ayo and either Smith or Tim Finke coming and no transfers)

I mean, a lineup of Tilmon, Black, JCL, Frazier, and Ayo with M. Finke, DJW, TJL, and an army of wings off the bench doesn't seem too bad, right?

mattcoldagelli · Jan 11, 2017

Obelix said:
Totally separate point. I've watched quite a few B1G games, and so far it has been quite a unique year. Definitely not as top-heavy on the national scene, but quite a lot of improvement on the mid-lower echelon. So down-ish at the top, but pretty good on the average IMO.

I agree but I brought it up because it's not as if we've got tournament-caliber talent and experience and are going to have to weather a murderer's row of Top-25 teams in conference.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 11, 2017

IlliniInOK said:
If you squint, you might be able to see a B1G title contender in 2018-19 if you hit some recruiting home runs.

C: Tilmon (Soph - maybe he puts up a Meyers=type soph season), Finke (RS-Sr.)
F: Black (RS-Sr), DJW (SR), Kipper (Jr)
Wing: JCL (SR), AJ (Sr), DMW (Soph), Pickett (Soph), Mark Smith (Soph) or Tim Finke (Fr)
PG: TJL (Jr), Frazier (Soph), Ayo (Freshman)

(Above contingent on Ayo and either Smith or Tim Finke coming and no transfers)

I mean, a lineup of Tilmon, Black, JCL, Frazier, and Ayo with M. Finke, DJW, TJL, and an army of wings off the bench doesn't seem too bad, right?

Get rid of any hypotheticals and assume we lose Tilmon and Frazier.

TJL, JCL, DJW, Black, and Finke is plenty of top-line talent to make some noise in the Big Ten and comfortably make the tournament.

That's the difference a good coach makes. And that's all besides any talent he would surely add on and/or retain.

I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten. Calvin Brock and Dominique Keller were basically our only contributors off the bench. That's a thing that really happened in real life, and with a just okay coach.

If I were a supervillain I'd round up all of you claiming our players don't have the talent to be winning difference-makers in the Big Ten and force you to watch our overtime win against a Top 10 Purdue team in Mackey that year like that dude in Clockwork Orange.

Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, you know that team. They got beaten (twice!) by the Bad News Bears of the Weber era.

mattcoldagelli · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten. Calvin Brock and Dominique Keller were basically our only contributors off the bench. That's a thing that really happened in real life, and with a just okay coach.

If I were a supervillain I'd round up all of you claiming our players don't have the talent to be winning difference-makers in the Big Ten and force you to watch our overtime win against a Top 10 Purdue team in Mackey that year like that dude in Clockwork Orange.

This thread has reached its zenith for the day, so the rest of should just knock off early.

MadSeason · Jan 11, 2017

dmac279 said:
An example of what your talking about is Kentucky, roll the ball out and let them play.

Calipari is a good coach which gets overlooked because he's a brilliant salesperson.

radiodj · Jan 11, 2017

MadSeason said:
Calipari is a good coach which gets overlooked because he's a brilliant cheater.

FIFY

ECETownie · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten. Calvin Brock and Dominique Keller were basically our only contributors off the bench. That's a thing that really happened in real life, and with a just okay coach.

If I were a supervillain I'd round up all of you claiming our players don't have the talent to be winning difference-makers in the Big Ten and force you to watch our overtime win against a Top 10 Purdue team in Mackey that year like that dude in Clockwork Orange.

Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, you know that team. They got beaten (twice!) by the Bad News Bears of the Weber era.

That was a weird season. 11-7 tied us for 2nd and Northwestern was 9th at 8-10. Also, Michael Jordan's son was on the team, we lost to Penn State 33-38, and Indiana went 1-17 in conference. What a time to be alive!

MakesNoSense · Jan 11, 2017

[
If I were a supervillain I'd round up all of you claiming our players don't have the talent to be winning difference-makers in the Big Ten and force you to watch our overtime win against a Top 10 Purdue team in Mackey that year like that dude in Clockwork Orange.

Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, you know that team. They got beaten (twice!) by the Bad News Bears of the Weber era.[/QUOTE]

And what would that prove. Everyteam can win a game here and there.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 11, 2017

MakesNoSense said:
And what would that prove. Everyteam can win a game here and there.

Excellent point. You get to watch the whole season. Hope your eyeballs don't get too dry.

89illinigrad · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
There's really not a difference between our previous classes and this one. The talent level is steady-eddie and has been for many years now spanning two coaching administrations.

And besides, there is no possible rational basis to conclude that Tilmon (RSCI #25) will have the same impact as Markelle Fultz (RSCI #5) or Ben Simmons (RSCI #1). Simmons was a National POY candidate and LSU missed the tournament, and Fultz is a do-it-all superstar and Washington is 8-7 with no chance at the dance.

Elite NBA lottery talent cannot conquer bad coaching, and Tilmon is not elite NBA lottery talent.

The evidence just doesn't back that up. Mark Gottfried was a fired ex-Alabama coach who had been sitting around for two years. Cuonzo Martin was a mid-major Keadyball devotee cleaning up Tennessee after Bruce Pearl had greased up all of those relationships.

And those are just examples of non-"hot" coaches coming in and bringing in a raft of 5-stars. There are plenty of other examples of coaches coming in and bringing in solid talent that fits.

I think everyone is underestimating how quickly the right coach could make himself at home here. This is a good job in pretty good shape.

So when a recruit like Timon says he chose (and stuck with) Illinois because of their loyalty (recruited him since 8th grade) and his relationship with the coaches, instead of going to SLU or a blue blood who came in late to the fray, it doesn't mean anything?

The fact that a top 25 prospect chose Illinois over $LU and Kansas I think proves that relationships matter, especially given that Groce is on the hot seat.

Yes, other schools can hire a new coach and immediately bring in 5 star talent, but it often raises a question as to how they are doing that.

Can you tell me the last time an Illinois coach came in and signed a 5 star in his first class?

Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk

Second and Chalmers · Jan 11, 2017

89illinigrad said:
The fact that a top 25 prospect chose Illinois over $LU and Kansas I think proves that relationships matter, especially given that Groce is on the hot seat.

Relationships absolutely matter. But I think Groce's odyssey thus far presents pretty compelling evidence that many-year bromances between a head coach and a player are an overrated factor in recruiting.

What you said about Tilmon was no less true of Cliff Alexander or Jawun Evans or Jalen Brunson or Carlton Bragg or Elijah Thomas or Xavier Simpson.

Did you go to the college you fell in love with from afar when you were 16? Unless I have a UNLV degree lying around somewhere, I sure didn't. And it wasn't because Illinois' admissions department brought a sack of cash to my doorstep the night before signing day either.

Striking up a personal bond with a high school sophomore (or younger) with big potential is great. That can pay dividends. Being able to play the politics of the support system of a big-time recruit with a lot of voices in his ear during the months leading up to their decision is a much more valuable skill. Groce's talents in that department have been shown to be lacking over and over again. No one wins over the parent who doesn't have influence over the decision more completely than John Groce.

Tevo · Jan 11, 2017

ChazzReinhold said:
Wow, Groce isn't even sure he would retain himself.

Coaches coach Coaches.

Illiniwek06 · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten. Calvin Brock and Dominique Keller were basically our only contributors off the bench. That's a thing that really happened in real life, and with a just okay coach.

Great post. And you're right, I have absolutely forgotten what it looks like to have a team be more than the sum of its parts. :frustrated:

mattcoldagelli said:
This thread has reached its zenith for the day, so the rest of should just knock off early.

+1.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 11, 2017

MakesNoSense said:
The most ridiculous, completely wrong statement of the day.

It might have been, but now it's been topped.

89illinigrad · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
Relationships absolutely matter. But I think Groce's odyssey thus far presents pretty compelling evidence that many-year bromances between a head coach and a player are an overrated factor in recruiting.

What you said about Tilmon was no less true of Cliff Alexander or Jawun Evans or Jalen Brunson or Carlton Bragg or Elijah Thomas or Xavier Simpson.

Did you go to the college you fell in love with from afar when you were 16? Unless I have a UNLV degree lying around somewhere, I sure didn't. And it wasn't because Illinois' admissions department brought a sack of cash to my doorstep the night before signing day either.

Striking up a personal bond with a high school sophomore (or younger) with big potential is great. That can pay dividends. Being able to play the politics of the support system of a big-time recruit with a lot of voices in his ear during the months leading up to their decision is a much more valuable skill. Groce's talents in that department have been shown to be lacking over and over again. No one wins over the parent who doesn't have influence over the decision more completely than John Groce.

All indications are that Groce did exactly that when it came to Tilmon as well.

RickBB · Jan 11, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
I don't think we even remember what it looks like to have an Illini team be more than the sum of their parts anymore. Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were the warhorse starting five for a 5 seed that finished 2nd in the Big Ten.

The thing with that team is they had a point guard who would act like a point guard in DMac....and Chester figured out he had to become a plausible threat to shoot, and became much more. Plus davis was a bouncy anthlete even though he was skinny, and for all the desire people had for Tisdale to be more than he was....having a 7 footer who could shoot when you had a bouncy athlete inside....and as a whole played good team defense, makes for a pretty good team.

You are clouded by the disdain everyone ended up having for Bruce, but I remember national pundits saying early in the year that the Illini shouldn't be overlooked.

FollowTisdale · Jan 11, 2017

RickBB said:
The thing with that team is they had a point guard who would act like a point guard in DMac....and Chester figured out he had to become a plausible threat to shoot, and became much more. Plus davis was a bouncy anthlete even though he was skinny, and for all the desire people had for Tisdale to be more than he was....having a 7 footer who could shoot when you had a bouncy athlete inside....and as a whole played good team defense, makes for a pretty good team.

You are clouded by the disdain everyone ended up having for Bruce, but I remember national pundits saying early in the year that the Illini shouldn't be overlooked.

You literally just described that that team was more than the sum of their parts, which was the whole point...

Ramrod2010 · Jan 11, 2017

This thread is depressing (specifically a team being more than the sum of their parts) . I'm sitting hear reading about of some of the lesser Bruce Weber years and thinking to myself, "You know, it wasn't that terrible."