What exactly was Collins' resume in 2012? Empty? And Tim Miles, another coach who would have been a bad hire, what exactly was his resume? One tournament appearance and a 28-50 conference record. Great resume.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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What exactly was Collins' resume in 2012? Empty? And Tim Miles, another coach who would have been a bad hire, what exactly was his resume? One tournament appearance and a 28-50 conference record. Great resume.
Yep, Weber was better - even with his disastrous last season. And, he left a good roster. Another positive for Weber was that the games were almost always competitive. Without question Weber is a better bench coach, but he was and is limited by his recruiting.
Groce, on the other hand, has a much higher ceiling for recruiting. There's just no evidence that he can actually coach those recruits above a middle of the pack B1G finish.
Furthermore, the starting points were totally different. One inherited a brand new Ferrari, a program on the upswing with arguably the best freshman trifecta (as far as talent - not rankings) in Illini basketball history (i.e., Dee, Deron, Augie). The other one... not so much.
Collins has been a big, big surprise especially given the failure of other arguably better Duke assistants (e.g., Johnny Dawkins). I think the fandom would have incorrectly revolted at the time.
Yes, the starting points for Groce and Weber were different. That's why we're only asking for an NCAA bid from Groce after 5 YEARS. Is that not completely reasonable given the program he took over? A program with an NCAA roster, a brand new $170MM arena, a strong basketball tradition, and a fertile recruiting area.
sacraig
- The desert
I would be interested to see the meltdown that occurs here in Tucson if Sean Miller was to leave. I'd put the odds of that happening at about the same as the odds of winning the Powerball.
Miles had taken over three seperate complete dumpster fires and turned them all into successes. That was my ideal resume circa 2012. My perspective has changed a bit since then (I see more difference between a 4-30 Colorado State team and a 18-15 Illinois team than I used to) but his turnaround artist talents still greatly exceed anything Groce had shown.
Collins had taken on a great deal of responsibility from Coach K and was obviously being groomed as a head coach. And the program's performance immediately increased when he got that role. Plus the obvious personal and recruiting ties to Illinois. I'm dubious of guys without head coaching experience too, but Collins had the perfect qualifications if Illinois was ever going to make that kind of hire.
And those are just two that I really focused on. You could go on and on.
Mike Thomas hired John Groce because his criteria for the search were poorly considered.
He hired him because he struck out on all the big names because, well, he's Mike Thomas. He then went to his "hire a hot name from the MAC" playbook and failed to take a deeper look at Groce's record. I think the idea of Groce was good and I really thought he was the total package - recruiting and coaching. It just turns out he's not.
Tyler has some really good comments in the most recent "Back and Forth" Illiniboard re: Groce's coaching like this:
I would say the use of the word "system" in connection with Groce's coaching is very generous.
But the numbers are after the first 3 seasons of Weber's success. Could argue that Weber should have been able to recruit more with that success but he also had the goodwill of a #2 finish to carry him thru the last 5 seasons before he was dismissed. Groce has yet to provide any evidence of the ability to provide extended success after 5 seasons. (Actually 4.5 but it doesn't look like there will be any big upswing)
Lou's 1979-80 team was 8-10 in the B1G, a record that most fans on here have said was unacceptable for Groce in year 5. And note that Groce's record, even with the adversity he had to deal with, was the same as Lou's through 4 years. I would argue that is a better apples to apples result, and justifies more patience than Lou's identical record. Since the year isn't over, I think arguing Lou's NIT tourney record is a little premature. I also think that it is hard to predict the direction of the program with the recruits Groce has coming.
There is a difference in expectations now, just as there is more competition in recruiting, more scrutiny via the web, etc.. In the 23 years before Lou, we won one conference championship and had one NCAA appearance (so the argument about how great our program has been historically is short term memory - you need to go back almost to the Whiz Kids to find greater success). AS a result, Groce has had much higher expectations. Not saying that we can't have high expectations. Not saying Groce is the answer. Just trying to add a little context.
There is a difference in expectations now, just as there is more competition in recruiting, more scrutiny via the web, etc.. In the 23 years before Lou, we won one conference championship and had one NCAA appearance (so the argument about how great our program has been historically is short term memory - you need to go back almost to the Whiz Kids to find greater success). AS a result, Groce has had much higher expectations. Not saying that we can't have high expectations. Not saying Groce is the answer. Just trying to add a little context.
However, when you look at the way the offense and defense function (or don't function) it offers little hope to me that we will ever see enjoyable basketball with Groce. Even if their record improves they will continue to have disappointing letdowns due to long scoring droughts and a consistent inability to provide a lock down defense.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal
But it's really not! These are talented guys coming in, but not talented enough to paper all the other systemic flaws we've shown over the past five years (and that's not a knock on them - it takes crazy, Duke-level classes to do that kind of thing).
Sadly, I'm not convinced we wouldn't see familiar systematic lapses with a star studded blue-blood esque class either.
It is just critical to note that that is not the question at hand.
Lou bought himself more slack making 6 of 9 NCAA tourneys and one final four at New Mexico St. That 1979-80 season started out on fire until Steve Lanter injured himself and essentially played on one leg. Most importantly however Henson was hitting homers in recruiting and was returning Eddie Johnson and Mark Smith and about to add James Griffin, Craig Tucker and some guy named Derek Harper. Things were progressing
If Groce Had Lou's New Mexico St. record while he was at Ohio, I am betting he would get a little more slack
I disagree. Sophmore TJL + Frazier up top alone changes us very much.
So a 3 and 4* recruit are going to single handedly change this teams fortune? You'd still see no defense, and you're not going to shoot 60% every night no matter how good your PG is.
I like the unique direction of thought you're introducing to the thread with this topic, but unless you're thinking in terms of assistants to add to our current staff should Groce be retained, I'm not sure we can possibly project that. I'm not in favor of forcing assistants on HCs, let them run their program, they can dig their own graves with staff choices IMO
IlliniForTheWin
- Georgia
What would it take for Groce to get fired mid-season?
LarryGotFouled
- Plano, TX
This is the key issue for me. WeberBall was beyond brutal and this has gotten almost as bad. However, Groce's first year looked totally different. Maui in particular. It is very, very hard to untangle what is Groce's failings vs being forced to have Tate and Abrams as your only PG options for most of the last 4 years. (Let's just agree to forget about Starks.) The fact that the flow is *noticeably* better with a decent freshman just doing competent PG things makes me at least a little curious for a TJL/Frazier/DMW/Smith group to see for sure.
IlliniForTheWin
- Georgia
Fire groce and offer gregg marshall 4 mil a year
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