2017 Coaching Carousel

illininks · Jan 18, 2017

I was cool on Martin at first but when you consider the challenging circumstances under which he has been fairly successful, he is intriguing.

Cal plays #11 Oregon in Eugene tomorrow night on ESPN2 at 8pm so I will be watching to see what I think! Don't expect him to go in there and win but I do want to see how his team plays...

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

Charleston said:
I'm pretty sure Cuonzo went to Lincoln.

Which was technically consolidated into ESL, but shoot, you're exactly right.

OrangeKrus28 · Jan 18, 2017

Rather than looking for the next hot coach and possibly whiffing and missing, I am under the belief that we need a more established coach who has proven to be able win in the long run----any coach from the AAC/MVC/A-10/MWC/WCC conferences and upwards to the Big 5 conferences. This is why I think guys like Cuonzo Martin/Andy Enfield/Scott Drew are more interesting candidates than the Kevin Keatts' of the world. That is just me personally. Illinois doesn't need to be looking for a young and up-and-comer. Let the Minnesota's of the world do that and see how much they've struggled.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
S&C has raised the point repeatedly - if we think we've found the Next Big Thing from the lower ranks, and that guy has a bumpy start...things get very bad, very fast.

Which is why Archie Miller is my dream choice for the moment. The best combination of credibility, upside, and reasonably plausible availability.

I do think he'll leave. But I do think he'd take NC State over us. And if Crean gets fired, we could be in trouble with a lot of these guys. Gregg Marshall to Indiana for a king's ransom makes a lot of sense.

ILL in IA · Jan 18, 2017

Is the comp of Martin to Webber in the coaching style and system they run? Because if Martin can handle Chicago, I see all comps to Webber ending right there.

(yes I understand the Purdue connection)

EJ33 · Jan 18, 2017

mattcoldagelli said:
I think there's unanimous agreement on what's wanted, but I'm not certain it's an either/or proposition with respect to "making it 2001-05 again" vs. "simply not getting run out of every opponent's gym." We need the latter before you can start thinking about the former, IMO - it all comes down to how much you're willing to gamble on someone who can get you both.

S&C has raised the point repeatedly - if we think we've found the Next Big Thing from the lower ranks, and that guy has a bumpy start...things get very bad, very fast.

Not sure where you're getting "either/or proposition."

Simply put, Cuonzo is a high floor / low ceiling candidate IMHO.

The best candidate is high floor / high ceiling. Lou Henson, Lon Kruger, and Bill Self were all high floor / high ceiling guys. They had proven, exceptional track records at lesser programs.

There simply wasn't enough of a track record for Groce - Thomas just bit on the hot hand vs. seeing a longer track record.

I want high floor / high ceiling. Most of the folks that fit this description aren't gettable, but I bet one guy is and it's Whitman's job to find him. Maybe Archie Miller is that guy or maybe it's someone we haven't mentioned here. Lon Kruger wasn't even on the radar when he was hired.

Having said all that, I agree with you on this: I will take Martin over the unproven mid-major hot hand guy. That's way too risky at this point.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 18, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
He's gonna open the checkbook and get who he wants.

Well, I think that's still TBD. When he hired Lovie, we still had an interim chancellor in place. Now the admin has had a chance to stabilize, we've spent big bucks on a football coach and announced more major renovation plans to Memorial Stadium. I don't think we really know how much leeway Whitman has here.

OrangeKrus28 said:
Let the Minnesota's of the world do that and see how much they've struggled.

They did struggle but are looking pretty good at the moment.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

OrangeKrus28 said:
Andy Enfield/Scott Drew are more interesting candidates than the Kevin Keatts' of the world.

I have trouble seeing Enfield's supermodel wife consenting to a move from LA to Champaign.

And Scott Drew....ewww. Baylor is gross, he's gross, the way they play is gross, he's not a good coach, he's a walking NCAA case, I just have a hard time seeing Whitman not just going in that direction, but breaking the bank to do so, because that's what it would take.

I don't see Drew's schtick working here.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
I don't think we really know how much leeway Whitman has here.

We don't know the upper limit, but it's very reasonable to conclude that we could go well over what Groce is at now. The new B1G contract is a lot to play with, and our donors are very engaged.

I'd say $2.75mm is a pretty reasonable estimate of what we could offer without straining ourselves for some mega-candidate. That's a big raise for most of the guys we talk about here, notably excluding Gregg Marshall and Buzz Williams.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Jan 18, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
We don't know the upper limit, but it's very reasonable to conclude that we could go well over what Groce is at now. The new B1G contract is a lot to play with, and our donors are very engaged.

I'd say $2.75mm is a pretty reasonable estimate of what we could offer without straining ourselves for some mega-candidate. That's a big raise for most of the guys we talk about here, notably excluding Gregg Marshall and Buzz Williams.

Agree, maybe even a little higher. Can't see us paying more than we pay Lovie. Certainly not a blank checkbook.

FollowTisdale · Jan 18, 2017

Second and Chalmers said:
We don't know the upper limit, but it's very reasonable to conclude that we could go well over what Groce is at now. The new B1G contract is a lot to play with, and our donors are very engaged.

I'd say $2.75mm is a pretty reasonable estimate of what we could offer without straining ourselves for some mega-candidate. That's a big raise for most of the guys we talk about here, notably excluding Gregg Marshall and Buzz Williams.

We pay Groce $1.7MM right? So +$2.3MM gets us to $4MM for an all star candidate.

What was the football renovation budget? In the neighborhood of $100MM, right? (I could be way off). $2MM doesn't even get you half way to a 6% contingency on construction overruns, that's peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

Fighter of the Nightman · Jan 18, 2017

As a baseball player who also played some soccer, my love for Illini basketball is more nuanced and less about Xs and Os ... but I'm sold on Martin. He seems like the type of coach that could really take his already fairly impressive coaching resume to the next levels with the built-in advantages of Illinois. I know, I know, we're all down because of this putrid stretch, but I think it's a lot easier to walk into a stud in-state recruit's home in IL and get him to be an Illini if you're Martin than it is to do the same at Tennessee or Cal.

RichBradIllini · Jan 18, 2017

homesickalien said:
Musselman is my top dark horse candidate. He has the coaching chops and I'm sure could put together a heck of a staff.

Right there with ya.

EJ33 · Jan 18, 2017

Fighter of the Nightman said:
As a baseball player who also played some soccer, my love for Illini basketball is more nuanced and less about Xs and Os ... but I'm sold on Martin. He seems like the type of coach that could really take his already fairly impressive coaching resume to the next levels with the built-in advantages of Illinois. I know, I know, we're all down because of this putrid stretch, but I think it's a lot easier to walk into a stud in-state recruit's home in IL and get him to be an Illini if you're Martin than it is to do the same at Tennessee or Cal.

I'm more concerned about his coaching. He'll recruit pretty well. He's had good talent at Cal and Tennessee.

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

alaskaillini said:
Let me try to explain this thought process for you. The reason you would keep the current guy is that you have the opportunity for him to pan out like Henson. He was not considered much of a coach in the beginning (his in game decision making drove most fans nuts for a good part of his career at UI) but he learned the job and built a program at Illinois.

I just wanted to double back on this point and note that if we're talking about what Henson accomplished in his first five years to compare to Groce, in a 64-team format which the NCAA's were not until 1985, year 4 for Henson was likely an NCAA berth and year 5 certainly was. Year 7 too. It's all NCAA appearances from '79 to Deon/Pearl.

So "Henson didn't make the tournament his first five years and look what happened!" is an inaccurate portrayal.

sacraig · Jan 18, 2017

EJ33 said:
I'm more concerned about his coaching. He'll recruit pretty well. He's had good talent at Cal and Tennessee.

Fair or not, I am worried about any sort of return to the Keady tree.

Obelix · Jan 18, 2017

I think many of the posts on this thread assume that all these coaching candidates want the Illinois coaching job and are ready to leave their current schools, so it is just a matter of affording their buyouts, meeting financial demands, etc. Personally, I think that underlying assumptions is suspect.

FeelYourPaign · Jan 18, 2017

Obelix said:
I think many of the posts on this thread assume that all these coaching candidates want the Illinois coaching job and are ready to leave their current schools, so it is just a matter of affording their buyouts, meeting financial demands, etc. Personally, I think that underlying assumptions is suspect.

I don't really read it that way. I see lots of posts talking about realistic possibilities, which to me indicates that there is doubt that the coach would consider an offer from us. I also see a lot of references to "they're a better job than we are right now" and similar thoughts.

I just think to be hopeful, you have to suspend all of that a little bit and say to yourself "you can't make the sale if you don't ask for the sale".

UofI08 · Jan 18, 2017

Obelix said:
I think many of the posts on this thread assume that all these coaching candidates want the Illinois coaching job and are ready to leave their current schools, so it is just a matter of affording their buyouts, meeting financial demands, etc. Personally, I think that underlying assumptions is suspect.

I don't think anyone has that assumption. That's why there's been so many names and lists thrown out here.

Obelix · Jan 18, 2017

FeelYourPaign said:
I just think to be hopeful, you have to suspend all of that a little bit and say to yourself "you can't make the sale if you don't ask for the sale".

I do not think the problem with previous searches, including the last one, is that we did not ask.

MadSeason · Jan 18, 2017

EJ33 said:
Not sure where you're getting "either/or proposition."

Simply put, Cuonzo is a high floor / low ceiling candidate IMHO.

The best candidate is high floor / high ceiling. Lou Henson, Lon Kruger, and Bill Self were all high floor / high ceiling guys. They had proven, exceptional track records at lesser programs.

There simply wasn't enough of a track record for Groce - Thomas just bit on the hot hand vs. seeing a longer track record.

I want high floor / high ceiling. Most of the folks that fit this description aren't gettable, but I bet one guy is and it's Whitman's job to find him. Maybe Archie Miller is that guy or maybe it's someone we haven't mentioned here. Lon Kruger wasn't even on the radar when he was hired.

Having said all that, I agree with you on this: I will take Martin over the unproven mid-major hot hand guy. That's way too risky at this point.

I think everything you said is a fair point and I agree on Martin. As a candidate I am not blown away Lovie style but I agree he has a high floor. The one added bonus for me with Martin is I think he has a little higher ceiling here than almost anywhere else. Martin certainly seems to be an above average overall coach and putting him in perfect situation may bump him a bit higher than say at Tennessee or Cal. Ceiling goes up I think

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

Obelix said:
I do not think the problem with previous searches, including the previous one, is that we did not ask.

It depends on which people you're talking about.

Archie or Cuonzo might very well say "thanks but no thanks". But barring a different Power Five opening they prefer, guys like Keatts, Musselman or Wade are not turning us down, and it's hard to envision three better Power Five jobs being open and clamoring for those same candidates.

So while your note of caution about the "just open your checkbook" chest-thumping attitudes of some is well taken, a more general sense of "we'll be forced to settle for some nobody we haven't even talked about yet because we're Illinois and we're a stupid joke and destined to never be happy" would be thoroughly unjustified.

MadSeason · Jan 18, 2017

Obelix said:
I do not think the problem with previous searches, including the last one, is that we did not ask.

Here's to hoping the one doing the asking is far more appealing this time around, which I truly believe is the case

Second and Chalmers · Jan 18, 2017

MadSeason said:
Here's to hoping the one doing the asking is far more appealing this time around, which I truly believe is the case

Ditch the boards folklore. There were a dozen better qualified coaches who would have gladly accepted our job after MT's goose chase for Shaka and Stevens came up empty. MT chose Groce because MT didn't have a strong concept of what it would take to be successful in this job.

EJ33 · Jan 18, 2017

MadSeason said:
I think everything you said is a fair point and I agree on Martin. As a candidate I am not blown away Lovie style but I agree he has a high floor. The one added bonus for me with Martin is I think he has a little higher ceiling here than almost anywhere else. Martin certainly seems to be an above average overall coach and putting him in perfect situation may bump him a bit higher than say at Tennessee or Cal. Ceiling goes up I think

Good point. This is how Whitman would need to think about it. "Can Cuonzo do even better given the home-turf recruiting, the facilities, and the tradition at Illinois?" It's a much more reasonable bet than hiring the mid-major hot hand, which is a total crapshoot.