2017 Coaching Carousel

Status
Not open for further replies.
#2,051      
This is forcing the facts to fit the feelings rather than the feelings fit the facts.

The deduction here is fundamentally first and foremost deciding which coaches are likeliest to turn us down, making a blanket assumption that those are therefore "wins", and backdating all existing knowledge with a deterministic certainty that every hire in our history was destined for a certain result at the time.

It's an architecture to create the emotionally desired result: the feeling and conviction that Illinois is no longer capable of hiring someone who can lead us to our past level of success, and that the chosen villains of the piece are responsible. That relieves the cognitive dissonance.

It's also very poor reasoning.

Sure they can hire someone to get them back to the past successes but it appears likely that the candidate won't have a resume that doesn't rely on more faith than past performance.

For a variety of reasons which can be debated but are mostly immaterial, Illinois does not seem likely to hire someone with Henson, Kruger or Self's qualifications before they took Illinois job.

One must out of necessity then realize that the likelihood of success is less a given than if we hired a "Tier A" coach. There is a chance that hiring Musselman over Marshall would end up better for Illinois. Odds are against it however.

Thats what I took from EJ's post anyway
 
#2,052      

ILL in IA

Iowa City
Just how good is our incoming class? Does it change the direction of the program when they all show up on campus? Does 1 more year of Groce to make sure you get them on campus move the program forward?
 
#2,054      
Just how good is our incoming class? Does it change the direction of the program when they all show up on campus? Does 1 more year of Groce to make sure you get them on campus move the program forward?

Really good. And if so many of our older guys graduating, they all should have a chance at early playing time.

Frazier is extremely underrated. He committed to us before he blew up and the blueblood/elites could take notice. Very good scorer for a point guard which should be refreshing to see!

Damonte is very athletic for a combo guard. We should finally have good PG depth with Lucas, Frazier and Damonte as a combo.

Tilmon is Tilmon. Likely a two and done.

Pickett may need some time but is a similar type of player to Malcolm.
 
#2,055      
Just how good is our incoming class? Does it change the direction of the program when they all show up on campus? Does 1 more year of Groce to make sure you get them on campus move the program forward?

It's a highly ranked class that has the potential to be very, very good. However, potential doesn't mean that they'll meet the lofty expectations on them. They have to come in willing to work and stay hungry. They have to commit to wanting to be better every day. Having the work ethic and drive to get better is 100% on them, but the other part is having a coach that is capable of teaching and making them better......I don't think we have the latter.
 
#2,056      
Illinois does not seem likely to hire someone with Henson, Kruger or Self's qualifications before they took Illinois job.

Tough to analogize as far back as Henson's time.

Lon Kruger made a Final Four! Lon Kruger made a Final Four! Say it until you're blue in the face. Just to establish the record on this, Kruger's 1994 Florida team defeated 14 seed James Madison, 11 seed Penn, 2 seed UConn in overtime after Donyell Marshall missed two free throws in a tie game with 3.4 seconds left in regulation, and 9 seed Boston College.

After that season, Kruger's Florida teams went 17-13 (8-8 SEC) and then 12-16 (6-10 SEC).

And just as surely as Ron Guenther hired Bruce Weber as a guy who was going to stick around and stabilize the program, he hired Kruger as a by-the-book straight arrow who wasn't going to get into any funny business recruiting-wise.

The idea that he was a monster coup akin to Tony Bennett today falls completely apart on the barest reading of the facts. He has much more in common with Cuonzo Martin, with one notable difference being Martin's obvious perfect fit with the job.

As for Self, you could do a similar thing with his greatest tourney success. Tulsa's Elite Eight run was over 10 seed UNLV, 2 seed Cincinnati, which was a shadow of the team that was #1 in the nation until National POY Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tournament and they were punished with a 2 seed (I never thought that was fair), and 6 seed Miami.

Neither Kruger nor Self needs to apologize for the teams they beat on the way to their tournament successes but in both cases, as in any case, the judgment should be made on the entire resume (including those wins), not just looking at a single tournament run over a couple weeks.

Kruger was a plain vanilla coach with an up-and-down record, and Self was the "hot mid-major" that we treat like a curse. Those are the facts.

If we do hire a new coach this offseason, when you look at their resume and compare it to Self's and Kruger's versus Groce's, I PROMISE you, it will look more similar to Self and/or Kruger. I promise you. If, that is, you're willing to understand what a quality coaching resume actually looks like and aren't determined to see reality through the prism of your emotional tenor about the program.
 
#2,057      

zpfled

Logan Square, Chicago
Really good. And if so many of our older guys graduating, they all should have a chance at early playing time.

Frazier is extremely underrated. He committed to us before he blew up and the blueblood/elites could take notice. Very good scorer for a point guard which should be refreshing to see!

Damonte is very athletic for a combo guard. We should finally have good PG depth with Lucas, Frazier and Damonte as a combo.

If we can get Mark Smith, we'll have fantastic options at PG.
 
#2,058      

sacraig

The desert
Seriously, why does everyone think that just because he came from the Keady tree that he's automatically a terrible coach.

I never implied my concerns with that were actually warranted, to be fair. Let's call it PTSD from Weber's largely uninspiring brand of basketball.
 
#2,059      
Could you please link? I am interested in how he phrased his comment or whether it was a response to something else.
"@AB1132 @breitwieser @FanboyCarp why would Sean Miller leave Arizona for a job his little brother likely won't take?"
https://twitter.com/JWernerScout/status/821339722912038912

"@SBK1124 @JMarinelli_12 Sorry, but Mack probably isn't coming here. Very low odds for him or Archie Miller."

https://twitter.com/JWernerScout/status/700717584396595201

"@todmeisner Yes, I just think he'll aim higher"

Https://twitter.com/JWernerScout/status/702659906697043969

"@RyanEasterling @JWernerScout @DPiperScout would someone like Archie Miller even be interested in Illinois with how far the program's fallen
"Doubtful"

https://twitter.com/JWernerScout/status/689622670065795072

There's a bunch more like that but you get the idea. Just found it interesting he has long history of turning down Miller for consideration but no one else really.
 
#2,060      

mattcoldagelli

The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I'm with you on this, but remember the JFG era. Illinois basketball does honeymoons in a way Illinois football does not.

Our next coach will land a commitment from a four star recruit during their first year on the job, and will be treated like John Wooden for doing so. I hate that we do that, but we do that.

I wonder if the Groce Era has ended this phenomenon. Time will tell.
 
#2,061      

EJ33

San Francisco
Unfortunately, that would tend to lower our sights. You're not going to get our top candidates lined up to compete with each other in interviews.




Yes. Nevada has landed several four-stars since he's been there. Plus he was an assistant at LSU when they brought in that monster class. And he profiles as a recruiter, he's got that kind of personality. He also brought in ex-UNLV coach Dave Rice as an assistant who is a big time recruiter, so he knows how to staff.

He'd be a fine choice, I'm telling you.

Your fascination with Musselman is odd. He's a decent journeyman coach, but there's nothing to suggest he's a low risk hire for Illinois. Maybe he'd be great or maybe he'd be terrible. I have no idea and neither do you.

He has not recruited "several" 4 stars to Nevada if you believe Rivals. He has two 4 stars - 1 rated 117 nationally and one not rated. Good for Nevada, but who knows what that means. It's also incredibly hard to tell whether recruiting success by an assistant can project to the head coaching level. Maybe LSU paid those players, maybe the head coach was the closer - we don't know. Bruce Weber recruited Glenn Robinson...
 
#2,062      
Tough to analogize as far back as Henson's time.

Lon Kruger made a Final Four! Lon Kruger made a Final Four! Say it until you're blue in the face. Just to establish the record on this, Kruger's 1994 Florida team defeated 14 seed James Madison, 11 seed Penn, 2 seed UConn in overtime after Donyell Marshall missed two free throws in a tie game with 3.4 seconds left in regulation, and 9 seed Boston College.

After that season, Kruger's Florida teams went 17-13 (8-8 SEC) and then 12-16 (6-10 SEC).

And just as surely as Ron Guenther hired Bruce Weber as a guy who was going to stick around and stabilize the program, he hired Kruger as a by-the-book straight arrow who wasn't going to get into any funny business recruiting-wise.

The idea that he was a monster coup akin to Tony Bennett today falls completely apart on the barest reading of the facts. He has much more in common with Cuonzo Martin, with one notable difference being Martin's obvious perfect fit with the job.

As for Self, you could do a similar thing with his greatest tourney success. Tulsa's Elite Eight run was over 10 seed UNLV, 2 seed Cincinnati, which was a shadow of the team that was #1 in the nation until National POY Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the conference tournament and they were punished with a 2 seed (I never thought that was fair), and 6 seed Miami.

Neither Kruger nor Self needs to apologize for the teams they beat on the way to their tournament successes but in both cases, as in any case, the judgment should be made on the entire resume (including those wins), not just looking at a single tournament run over a couple weeks.

Kruger was a plain vanilla coach with an up-and-down record, and Self was the "hot mid-major" that we treat like a curse. Those are the facts.

If we do hire a new coach this offseason, when you look at their resume and compare it to Self's and Kruger's versus Groce's, I PROMISE you, it will look more similar to Self and/or Kruger. I promise you. If, that is, you're willing to understand what a quality coaching resume actually looks like and aren't determined to see reality through the prism of your emotional tenor about the program.

Kruger had a nice career at K. St before that run to the Final 4 at Florida. I don't know what about Tony Bennett makes him a "monster coup" superior to Kruger or Self. Calipari decides to come here? Thats a monster coup

You guarantee their resume looks more like Kruger than like Groce's but those 2 are millions of miles apart. Cuonzo is more like Kruger, Musselman more like Groce's.
 
#2,063      
He has not recruited "several" 4 stars to Nevada if you believe Rivals. He has two 4 stars - 1 rated 117 nationally and one not rated.

I'm counting the Martin twins from NC State. Transfers are different, I know, but that's a big coup for a school like Nevada.

I really like his resume leading up to the Nevada job. Multiple stints as an NBA head coach, lots of other winning head coaching experience in other leagues and internationally, time as an assistant under some excellent coaches (Chuck Daly, Mike Fratello, and funny enough, Lon Kruger during his NBA stint).

He was credited as making a huge impact during his time at Arizona State, and their lack of success before and after he was there under the same head coach would seem to lend credence to that.

All the right people seem to think he's destined for big things, he has the look and the sound of a guy who can do it, he's the son of a coach and a Big Ten coach to boot so he's got the background. This is a coaches coach.

All that put him on my radar when he got that job. But the question is can he do it? What does this look like as a college head coach?

Turns out it looks like instant positive impact. From 9-22 to 22-14 in year 1. With the same roster save for a 4-star PG that he himself recruited in the spring after he arrived. And now they appear to be taking another step forward in year 2.

I have no doubt he's got the chops, and he's showing me he can have the impact (I'll keep watching them. If they drift to the middle of the pack in the MWC I may get some pause, and if they end with a gaudy record and a high seed I probably won't need to convince anyone anymore). Those are the things I'm looking for.
 
#2,064      
I don't know what about Tony Bennett makes him a "monster coup" superior to Kruger or Self.

Tony Bennett in the past three seasons has won two outright ACC titles and been a 1, 1, and 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and with less talent than what he has started to bring in.

Nothing Self or Kruger had done was even on the radar screen of that. Not even close to close.

Tony Bennett does not need the Illinois job to reach the summit. He's at the summit.
 
#2,065      

Captain Bubbles

Fairfield, IL
If I had to nominate someone from this message board that could come in and coach the Illini, it would have to be combes. Combes...really? Yes and I'm down with that. Don't know him personally, but he knows his stuff.

In terms of real coach, Musselman is still my #1 choice. Still not a fan of Martin. Would've been nice to hire Brad Underwood. I think he's a good coach.
 
#2,066      
I really don't see any point in putting limitations on ourselves. Whitman got Lovie to come to the train wreck called Illinois football. Whitman has shown he's not afraid to seek out a star.

No doubt he could go for an up and comer if he feels comfortable doing so.

Remember when we all thought Guenther was in Oklahoma to lure Sampson (the hot name) and got Self. Whew! Got lucky there on a lot of levels.

I assume candidates begin presenting themselves to Whitman in private as the prospect of the job opening becomes clearer.
 
#2,067      

EJ33

San Francisco
I'm counting the Martin twins from NC State. Transfers are different, I know, but that's a big coup for a school like Nevada.

I really like his resume leading up to the Nevada job. Multiple stints as an NBA head coach, lots of other winning head coaching experience in other leagues and internationally, time as an assistant under some excellent coaches (Chuck Daly, Mike Fratello, and funny enough, Lon Kruger during his NBA stint).

He was credited as making a huge impact during his time at Arizona State, and their lack of success before and after he was there under the same head coach would seem to lend credence to that.

All the right people seem to think he's destined for big things, he has the look and the sound of a guy who can do it, he's the son of a coach and a Big Ten coach to boot so he's got the background. This is a coaches coach.

All that put him on my radar when he got that job. But the question is can he do it? What does this look like as a college head coach?

Turns out it looks like instant positive impact. From 9-22 to 22-14 in year 1. With the same roster save for a 4-star PG that he himself recruited in the spring after he arrived. And now they appear to be taking another step forward in year 2.

I have no doubt he's got the chops, and he's showing me he can have the impact (I'll keep watching them. If they drift to the middle of the pack in the MWC I may get some pause, and if they end with a gaudy record and a high seed I probably won't need to convince anyone anymore). Those are the things I'm looking for.

Fair enough, but it's still not enough data to call him low risk. It's just a guess as to how he'd do at Illinois.
 
#2,069      
T
Tony Bennett in the past three seasons has won two outright ACC titles and been a 1, 1, and 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and with less talent than what he has started to bring in.

Nothing Self or Kruger had done was even on the radar screen of that. Not even close to close.

Tony Bennett does not need the Illinois job to reach the summit. He's at the summit.

Bennett has done a remarkable job, but if i'm devils advocate i'll ask what did he do with those plum seeds? No tourney runs shouldnt be the end all be all, but they shouldnt be discarded either. Kruger had an Elite 8 and Final 4 at non traditional powers. Arguing his success wasnt close to Bennetts is hyperbolic and not factual.
 
#2,070      
If I had to nominate someone from this message board that could come in and coach the Illini, it would have to be combes. Combes...really? Yes and I'm down with that. Don't know him personally, but he knows his stuff.

In terms of real coach, Musselman is still my #1 choice. Still not a fan of Martin. Would've been nice to hire Brad Underwood. I think he's a good coach.
Of note Underwood was getting killed by their fans yesterday.
 
#2,072      

EJ33

San Francisco
Tony Bennett in the past three seasons has won two outright ACC titles and been a 1, 1, and 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, and with less talent than what he has started to bring in.

Nothing Self or Kruger had done was even on the radar screen of that. Not even close to close.

Tony Bennett does not need the Illinois job to reach the summit. He's at the summit.

Agreed, Tony Bennett would be the most qualified basketball coach we've ever hired. There is a case for Lou, but I don't think it's that strong unless you live by the "he's made a Final Four" criterion. I have no idea why anybody thinks he would ever come here. Virginia is a great job and pretty soon he will be the best coach in the ACC (Roy and K will be gone soon).
 
#2,073      
If I had to nominate someone from this message board that could come in and coach the Illini, it would have to be combes. Combes...really? Yes and I'm down with that. Don't know him personally, but he knows his stuff.

In terms of real coach, Musselman is still my #1 choice. Still not a fan of Martin. Would've been nice to hire Brad Underwood. I think he's a good coach.

Coffee is for combes.
 
#2,074      
Agreed, Tony Bennett would be the most qualified basketball coach we've ever hired. There is a case for Lou, but I don't think it's that strong unless you live by the "he's made a Final Four" criterion. I have no idea why anybody thinks he would ever come here. Virginia is a great job and pretty soon he will be the best coach in the ACC (Roy and K will be gone soon).

Comes down to what you prioritize more. Regular season success vs tournament success. I understand the hesitation to annoint someone a good coach because they get hot during tourney once. However, Kruger made the Elite 8 at one school and Final 4 at another. Thats no fluke and it is worth alot. If polled i guarantee 99% of this board would rather finish this season in Elite 8 vs top of Big Ten standings and one and done in tourney if given option.

Like it or not, success in college hoops= tourney success.
 
#2,075      

mattcoldagelli

The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I really don't see any point in putting limitations on ourselves. Whitman got Lovie to come to the train wreck called Illinois football. Whitman has shown he's not afraid to seek out a star.

#Belichick4Illinois
 
Status
Not open for further replies.