2017 Coaching Carousel

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#2,476      
People in the know have stressed as much. The reasoning I'm not so sure of.

If you believe "people in the know" then Cuonzo Martin has already accepted the job as the next Illini basketball coach, so we might as well close down the thread :D
 
#2,477      
I think you'd be hard pressed to make a case for Fran as good coach, and if someone said that missing the tournament 4 years in a row (without multiple injuries) before he got better did not matter, it would be hard not to make a similar case for Groce.

Iowa is 11-9 and 3-4 in conference currently, having lost 2 in a row, currently not an NCAA team. They are not much better than us right now and we are at a low point performance-wise contemplating firing our coach (which says even less IMO of Iowa and Fran).

Did I mention they're players no freshmen big minutes and we're laying 6 year seniors.
 
#2,478      
Good morning, carousel peeps! Busy morning :thumb:

I guess I don't quite understand this. Does this mean he's gonna be a better coach or a better recruiter?

He's gotten 4 five star guys in six years as a P5 head coach. He's gonna do BETTER than that at Illinois? That seems like a stretch to me.

This has been a concern of mine, especially reading the people arguing that his recruiting upside is higher here than at Cal. He's landed some really touted prospects, and really hasn't seen a major uptick in their performance level there as a result. One thing we need to note is that some of that talent HAS already left (Jaylen Brown was a top 5 pick to the Celtics after one year), but nothing he's achieved at Cal besides the recruiting has really been WOW! Has yet to finish in the top 50 in KenPom AdjO with that talent, T-3 is his best conference finish, etc. How much does being in the midwest REALLY jump that recruiting profile? He had a class at Cal (.9541) that was significantly better than any of Groce's here in 2014-15 and hasn't done much with it. As always, refer to the numbers on these points.

I have a much greater degree of confidence that demonstrated coaching impact will translate than recruiting ability.

I agree, which is why Keatts grows on me daily. That turnaround at UNCW in such short order is just really, really impressive. Here's a question - does he come here over Georgetown, which should be open, considering his regional ties? Born in VA, coached at Louisville, in North Carolina (UNCW), and HMA in VA. Just a point we haven't really discussed.

Yes it means a better recruiter here. it's a stretch to think a guy who has been a successful recruiter at Cal and Tennessee won't see greater success here? A guy from East St. Louis, who has recruited Chicago, assisted and played at Purdue and coached in Missouri?

Not only is Illinois an easier gig to recruit at than Tennessee and Cal but Martin is very familiar with the talent areas he will need to succeed with.

Hard for me to understand the confusion regarding this.

The confusion isn't if he can recruit here, just if the level is going to be sufficient to overcome likely coaching deficiencies, because he's recruited some really high level guys to Cal and we haven't seen any really impressive returns on that talent.

And that right there is the important part. We need a coach that can do exactly that..coach. I think a big thing here that no one is talking about is the staff that this candidate brings with them. That could really take a candidate to the next level in my opinion. That's what really intrigues me about guys like Musselman.

Personally, I think Musselman is probably a year away from being a real candidate for us. Think he needs the breakout year at Nevada. Also, he'd certainly be able to up the coaching both at HC and assistant, but would he be able to bring any top level recruiters onto his staff? Any known connections?
 
#2,479      
Beilein following Amaker and Brian Ellerbe at Michigan, Fran following Lickliter and Alford at Iowa, Josh Pastner following Brian Gregory and Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech, Mark Gottfried following Sidney Lowe and Herb Sendek at NC State, Brad Underwood following Travis Ford and Sean Sutton at Oklahoma State, Mike Anderson following John Pelphrey and Stan Heath at Arkansas.

Those are all pretty analogous situations of programs with resources going on the open market after getting it wrong twice in a row.

Nice mix of up and comers and coaches that switched from P5 jobs. This list makes me depressed though haha. Not many that scream positive moves here. Not sure you can really pull much info from this list though after looking at it. One thing I do see as a consistent is that programs seem to level out with a few ups and downs along the way (seems to be really tough to take that next jump as a program).
 
#2,480      
Personally, I think Musselman is probably a year away from being a real candidate for us. Think he needs the breakout year at Nevada. Also, he'd certainly be able to up the coaching both at HC and assistant, but would he be able to bring any top level recruiters onto his staff? Any known connections?

Looking over his resume real quick he's been in coaching for quite awhile so I'm sure he's made some good friends along the way. He was on coaching staffs with Doc Rivers, Chuck Daly, Lon Kruger, Herb Sendek, and that's not to mention his own head coaching and administrative jobs.

He has quite the resume. He reminds me of a "Lovie lite" in terms of his connections professionally.
 
#2,481      
Looking over his resume real quick he's been in coaching for quite awhile so I'm sure he's made some good friends along the way. He was on coaching staffs with Doc Rivers, Chuck Daly, Lon Kruger, Herb Sendek, and that's not to mention his own head coaching and administrative jobs.

He has quite the resume. He reminds me of a "Lovie lite" in terms of his connections professionally.

Right, but NBA assistants, etc. aren't what I'm asking about, I have no doubt we'd be able to compile an excellent X's and O's assistant pool using his connections. Where do the lead recruiters come from?
 
#2,482      
Right, but NBA assistants, etc. aren't what I'm asking about, I have no doubt we'd be able to compile an excellent X's and O's assistant pool using his connections. Where do the lead recruiters come from?

Musselman added Dave Rice, ex-head coach of UNLV, to his staff this offseason. Not a great head coach, but an outstanding recruiter.

He would probably be a contender for the head job if Musselman left, so that's a concern, but that's the current answer for "where do the lead recruiters come from"
 
#2,483      
Musselman added Dave Rice, ex-head coach of UNLV, to his staff this offseason. Not a great head coach, but an outstanding recruiter.

He would probably be a contender for the head job if Musselman left, so that's a concern, but that's the current answer for "where do the lead recruiters come from"

Yep, Dave Rice would fit the bill :thumb: Didn't know he was there, thanks.
 
#2,484      
Did I mention they're players no freshmen big minutes and we're laying 6 year seniors.

First, just for accuracy, we have 5 senior scholarship players. Unless you believe we should be winning because Alex Austin is also on the team :)

Second, playing some freshmen does not mean they are winning or they are projected to be really good in the future. Iowa is not a good team, and maybe you see a bright future, but I see a mediocre team with a mediocre coach (Fran). I think they struggle mightily without Jok next year as well.

More importantly, as stated multiple times, Fran did not make NCAA in four straight years, not even with a multiple injuries excuse. if someone said that missing the tournament 4 years in a row before Fran got marginally better did not matter, it would be hard not to make a similar case for Groce.

Third, I'll be very honest. As bad Groce has been, IF there were only two possible options in this world:

Option A: Not fire Groce this year (does not mean that you can't make a firing decision later)
Option B: Fire Groce this year, but substitute him with someone like Fran, who will not smell NCAA in four years, but will get a little better (Fran/Iowa level) in year 5-6 but then not make the tournament again in year 7.

There is no way you choose option B. Come on, would you think it would be acceptable to hire someone like Fran and give him a pass if he misses the tournament in the next 4 years? Of course not.

Fortunately, Illinois has a lot more options than option B, but Fran is neither an example of successful coach nor what Illinois needs right now. JMO.
 
#2,485      
Possibility

My guess for a future coach might be an middle aged NBA assistant that doesn't see a head coaching job opening up for him in the league and has some good roots and contacts with some P5 schools! Any ideas out there from our resident Experts?
 
#2,486      
My guess for a future coach might be an middle aged NBA assistant that doesn't see a head coaching job opening up for him in the league and has some good roots and contacts with some P5 schools! Any ideas out there from our resident Experts?

I think the basketball coaching hire will be a much more conventional hire (college coach) than an opportunistic hire (ex-NBA coach or NBA assistant).
 
#2,487      
I think the basketball coaching hire will be a much more conventional hire (college coach) than an opportunistic hire (ex-NBA coach or NBA assistant).

Agreed, unless Hoiberg magically becomes available, but I don't see that happening or him necessarily coming here if he does.

And for the record, there's nothing wrong with that. The Lovie hire was the perfect storm of circumstances, not anything near what we should expect from a coaching search.
 
#2,488      
The confusion isn't if he can recruit here, just if the level is going to be sufficient to overcome likely coaching deficiencies, because he's recruited some really high level guys to Cal and we haven't seen any really impressive returns on that talent.

I guess it depends on what kind of coaching deficiencies we are talking. Are we saying he is Josh Pastner? I think Cuonzo could be a Lou Henson level coach as far as X's and O's.

Martin has playing, recruiting and coaching connections in St. louis metro , Chicago metro and Indiana. I think that makes his ceiling higher than Cal recruiting wise despite the success he has already had.
 
#2,489      
More importantly, as stated multiple times, Fran did not make NCAA in four straight years

Oh please. His first four years, after taking over a talentless program flat on its back, with steady improvement every season.

Per Kenpom,

Lickliter
2008: 145
2009: 87
2010: 174

McCaffery
2011: 88
2012: 102
2013: 29
2014: 22

His coaching stock was higher after that fourth year than it is now, frankly.

Now, why did his two excellent teams (that year 4 and last year) run out of gas at the end of the season? I don't have an explanation for that.

He's also a real jerk, which might not be unrelated to some of those struggles.

But if you can't see that he's been a much more difference-making, successful head coach in his career than John Groce, you just don't know how to critically examine a coaching resume.
 
#2,490      
I guess it depends on what kind of coaching deficiencies we are talking. Are we saying he is Josh Pastner? I think Cuonzo could be a Lou Henson level coach as far as X's and O's.

Martin has playing, recruiting and coaching connections in St. louis metro , Chicago metro and Indiana. I think that makes his ceiling higher than Cal recruiting wise despite the success he has already had.

Perhaps, but his ceiling versus where he's at at Cal right now really doesn't feel like as big a jump as some are suggesting. His '15 class (.9541 grade) is a damn good class, going much higher than that at a non-blue blood is quite the feat, and as S&C has suggested, should he not get there (as that's definitely not a given), what happens? Are we confident he can succeed at a high level here recruiting at a level similar to Groce? How much talent does he need to thrive, and how confident are we he can consistently land that level of talent?

The results following that .9541 class really weren't remarkable. As Jaylen Brown left early, he only had the full crop there for 2015-2016, and he went 23-11 with that group, T-3 in conference. That's the big question there and where we're seeing the philosophical differences on Cuonzo, in my opinion.
 
#2,491      
First, just for accuracy, we have 5 senior scholarship players. Unless you believe we should be winning because Alex Austin is also on the team :)

Second, playing some freshmen does not mean they are winning or they are projected to be really good in the future. Iowa is not a good team, and maybe you see a bright future, but I see a mediocre team with a mediocre coach (Fran). I think they struggle mightily without Jok next year as well.

More importantly, as stated multiple times, Fran did not make NCAA in four straight years, not even with a multiple injuries excuse. if someone said that missing the tournament 4 years in a row before Fran got marginally better did not matter, it would be hard not to make a similar case for Groce.

Third, I'll be very honest. As bad Groce has been, IF there were only two possible options in this world:

Option A: Not fire Groce this year (does not mean that you can't make a firing decision later)
Option B: Fire Groce this year, but substitute him with someone like Fran, who will not smell NCAA in four years, but will get a little better (Fran/Iowa level) in year 5-6 but then not make the tournament again in year 7.

There is no way you choose option B. Come on, would you think it would be acceptable to hire someone like Fran and give him a pass if he misses the tournament in the next 4 years? Of course not.

Fortunately, Illinois has a lot more options than option B, but Fran is neither an example of successful coach nor what Illinois needs right now. JMO.

Stop with the lies. Fran took over a 10-22 team and missed the NCAA tournament 3 years, then made it the 4th year. If the First Four is not part of the NCAA tournament, then what is it? Did I just imagine VCU in the Final Four in 2011? Not saying Fran's a good coach, but you don't need to spin the truth to make that case.
 
#2,492      
Just because we're throwing KenPom numbers around, let's do John Groce

At Ohio:

Tim O'Shea
2005: 85
2006: 109
2007: 125
2008: 95

John Groce
2009: 169
2010: 94
2011: 150
2012: 57

At Illinois: (KenPom goes back to 2002, what the heck, let's lay out the whole thing)

Bill Self
2002: 8
2003: 5

Bruce Weber
2004: 13
2005: 2
2006: 8
2007: 35
2008: 50
2009: 25
2010: 57
2011: 18
2012: 76

John Groce
2013: 39
2014: 52
2015: 60
2016: 125
2017: 72
 
#2,493      
His first four years, after taking over a talentless program flat on its back, with steady improvement every season.

Oh please, Fran did not make the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row. Now, conveniently, we substitute goals like making the tournament with Kenpom numbers. Huh?

Yes, let's hire someone who will not make the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row, give him a pass because of Kenpom, then keep him because he makes the tournament in years 5 and 6, and then praise him as an example of successful coach in year 7 when he fails to make the NCAA tournament and his Kenpom number decrease... oh sorry, in year 7, let's substitute NCAA birth and Kenpom with "playing freshmen."

You fascination with Fran McCaffery is mind boggling, especially as it relates to the Illini job and what Illinois needs right now. The last thing Illinois needs right now is another Fran McCaffery, absolutely terrible fit.
 
#2,494      
Musselman added Dave Rice, ex-head coach of UNLV, to his staff this offseason. Not a great head coach, but an outstanding recruiter.

He would probably be a contender for the head job if Musselman left, so that's a concern, but that's the current answer for "where do the lead recruiters come from"

So I went and read up on Musselman's staff at Nevada. Not knowing too much about these guys going in I have to say I'm pretty impressed with Dave Rice and Yanni Hufnagel.

http://www.nevadawolfpack.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/yanni_hufnagel_1011791.html

Interesting that Hignagel actually was at Cal with Martin the years he brought in the 5 stars and he left there to join Musselman. I don't think he'd have any problems making crossroads in the recruiting world if he got the job here.
 
#2,496      
Oh and can we stop with the Fran stuff? He's at Iowa and he's not coming to Illinois. Is he a horrible coach...no. Is he what we need at Illinois...absolutely not.
 
#2,497      
Stop with the lies. Fran took over a 10-22 team and missed the NCAA tournament 3 years, then made it the 4th year. If the First Four is not part of the NCAA tournament, then what is it? Did I just imagine VCU in the Final Four in 2011? Not saying Fran's a good coach, but you don't need to spin the truth to make that case.

I did not spin it, specifically responded to S&C and did mention that 3 years in a row, 4 years in you do not consider losing in the play-in game as "making the tournament."

Second and Chalmers, who we disagree with Fran, has specifically said (and please correct me if you did not, S&C) that he does not consider losing in the play-in game as "making the tournament."
 
#2,498      
Oh please, Fran did not make the NCAA tournament 4 years in a row. Now, conveniently, we substitute goals like making the tournament with Kenpom numbers. Huh?

This is an incredibly insignificant tangent and I'm not sure how you two went down this road because nobody earnestly suggested hiring Fran, but PLEASE, general point of contention for me with this thread, facts matter:

XX6RURk.png


Now move on.
 
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#2,500      
All I see are more risky choices. We will face another rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel. Unless Whitman can get a proven winner, we are better off doing nothing.
 
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