2017 Coaching Carousel

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#4,626      
ChiefIllini
ILHoff said:
A lot are forgetting that the CAA lost 3 of its perennial top teams in George Mason (2013), Old Dominion (2013), VCU (2012) conveniently right before Keatts took over the job. Georgia St even did alright in the tournament and they left in 2013. The CAA is not what it used to be.
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Just because the conference is weak doesn't make what he's done any less impressive. Its more than just turning around a program its piling up wins, doing it consistently for three years, finishing atop the conference, and recognizing what talent will (1) be interested in attending his school and (2) out of that pool, finding the right guys to fit his scheme and be successful (though you could argue he hasn't had a chance to have those guys actually show up since its just his third year.)

The fact is, having success at every level, in both a HC and head recruiter position, means he knows something about winning and building a team correctly. Of course, there's no guarantee when this ability to win will stop. A good way to view it is professional athletes. Tons of stars in HS don't pan out in college, tons of college stars dont pan out in pro leagues, and tons of pro league guys fall off at anytime. It's almost nearly impossible to realize when a coaching candidate or player has reached his max potential. But betting on a raw top 10 kid, as opposed to a solid top 100 guy is probably what the university deserves.
 
#4,627      
WesterveltVictoryCigar
endless shrimp said:
Does anybody know Whitman's criteria? I'll hang up and listen.
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#WeWillWin

FollowTisdale said:
When you take a team in any league from the cellar to the NCAA tournament in 2 out of your first 3 years (I'm already counting this one), it's an accomplishment.
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He has to win the conference tournament to make the NCAAs, which is why it's not always the best metric to use for mid/low major programs. His conference record is more impressive.
 
#4,628      
haasi
Orangetool said:
It's going to be Cuonzo Martin.
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its-gonna-be-me-4.gif
 
#4,630      
TownieMatt
Second and Chalmers said:
Whatever the overall level of results Keatts may or may not achieve, there is no roster-independent reason to think Year 3 would be better than Year 1, relative to Cuonzo Martin.

In English, you don't have to wait for Keatts' best. There's not some big learning curve that he has and Cuonzo doesn't.
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You make a really good point here. I think any good Xs and Os coach has the potential to get this team to the NCAA tournament as early as next season (depending on recruit attrition and transfers). There is a lot of talent on this roster, which is what has made the end of the Groce era so frustrating.

I think where Keatts would struggle off the bat is that instant credibility and recruiting connections that Counzo would have. That's not to say that Keatts wouldn't be able to recruit here, but he'd need to develop those connections, which takes time.
 
#4,631      
illiniknight
Illiniwek06 said:
I do not get this argument at all. Why do people assume it would take Keatts three years to get results versus zero for Cuonzo?
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I don't understand either. Won't they have the same players? Is the assumption linked to the belief that Cuonzo will do a better job retaining the current recruits?
 
#4,632      
ILHoff
ChiefIllini said:
Just because the conference is weak doesn't make what he's done any less impressive. Its more than just turning around a program its piling up wins, doing it consistently for three years, finishing atop the conference, and recognizing what talent will (1) be interested in attending his school and (2) out of that pool, finding the right guys to fit his scheme and be successful (though you could argue he hasn't had a chance to have those guys actually show up since its just his third year.)

The fact is, having success at every level, in both a HC and head recruiter position, means he knows something about winning and building a team correctly. Of course, there's no guarantee when this ability to win will stop. A good way to view it is professional athletes. Tons of stars in HS don't pan out in college, tons of college stars dont pan out in pro leagues, and tons of pro league guys fall off at anytime. It's almost nearly impossible to realize when a coaching candidate or player has reached his max potential. But betting on a raw top 10 kid, as opposed to a solid top 100 guy is probably what the university deserves.
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While it is impressive what he has done, we'll have to disagree that it is less impressive to do it in a very down conference. I'm curious to know why he is considered such a good recruiter?
 
#4,633      
Second and Chalmers
TownieMatt said:
You make a really good point here. I think any good Xs and Os coach has the potential to get this team to the NCAA tournament as early as next season (depending on recruit attrition and transfers). There is a lot of talent on this roster, which is what has made the end of the Groce era so frustrating.

I think where Keatts would struggle off the bat is that instant credibility and recruiting connections that Counzo would have. That's not to say that Keatts wouldn't be able to recruit here, but he'd need to develop those connections, which takes time.
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I gotta go to a meeting, I'll flesh this out more later, but long story short, that's a Groce apologist narrative that doesn't fit with the data.
 
#4,634      
ILLHangOut
TownieMatt said:
You make a really good point here. I think any good Xs and Os coach has the potential to get this team to the NCAA tournament as early as next season (depending on recruit attrition and transfers). There is a lot of talent on this roster, which is what has made the end of the Groce era so frustrating.

I think where Keatts would struggle off the bat is that instant credibility and recruiting connections that Counzo would have. That's not to say that Keatts wouldn't be able to recruit here, but he'd need to develop those connections, which takes time.
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I agree with you. I think that his staff could and should fills those gaps. I'd hope the administration would be willing to pay for top assistants to bring those connections with them.
 
#4,635      
TownieMatt
Second and Chalmers said:
I gotta go to a meeting, I'll flesh this out more later, but long story short, that's a Groce apologist narrative that doesn't fit with the data.
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Interesting. I don't see any Groce apologizing in saying that he's getting way less out of this team than he should.
 
#4,636      
OrangeKrus28
To prove that no one has much of an idea about Kevin Keatts, let's analyze the following:
UNC Wilmington:
Offensive rank: 11th----in a low level conference---86.1 ppg scored
Defensive rank: 242nd in the country----74.8 ppg given up

Now, with those stats in mind, can someone explain to me how you expect Kevin Keatts to miraculously solve the defensive struggles of Leron Black/Michael Finke/JCL if his current team is worse on defense than the Fighting Illini? Is he going to outscore the opposition? Not in the B10. Ready...set...go...
 
#4,637      
TownieMatt
OrangeKrus28 said:
To prove that no one has much of an idea about Kevin Keatts, let's analyze the following:
UNC Wilmington:
Offensive rank: 11th----in a low level conference---86.1 ppg scored
Defensive rank: 242nd in the country----74.8 ppg given up

Now, with those stats in mind, can someone explain to me how you expect Kevin Keatts to miraculously solve the defensive struggles of Leron Black/Michael Finke/JCL if his current team is worse on defense than the Fighting Illini? Is he going to outscore the opposition? Not in the B10. Ready...set...go...
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Not saying you're wrong, but ppg stats can be misleading. Really need tempo-free stats to make a fair comparison as it seems UNCW plays a pretty up-tempo style.
 
#4,638      
Illiniwek06
OrangeKrus28 said:
To prove that no one has much of an idea about Kevin Keatts, let's analyze the following:
UNC Wilmington:
Offensive rank: 11th----in a low level conference---86.1 ppg scored
Defensive rank: 242nd in the country----74.8 ppg given up

Now, with those stats in mind, can someone explain to me how you expect Kevin Keatts to miraculously solve the defensive struggles of Leron Black/Michael Finke/JCL if his current team is worse on defense than the Fighting Illini? Is he going to outscore the opposition? Not in the B10. Ready...set...go...
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Adjust for tempo -

UNCW offense: 5th.
Illinois offense: 166th.

UNCW defense: 193rd.
Illinois defense: 181st.

Sources:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency
 
#4,639      
OrangeKrus28
Illiniwek06 said:
Adjust for tempo -

UNCW offense: 5th.
Illinois offense: 166th.

UNCW defense: 193rd.
Illinois defense: 181st.

Sources:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency
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Ok, now that's a fair comparison. We all agree that UNC-Wilmington's offense is better. Their defense is not and in the B10, you need to be a defensive-minded team if you are going to have any success in this conference minus what Michigan has been able to do. So, for the Keatts' backers, how do you explain this? Not only is Illinois' current defense better(and they're pretty bad) but it is better in a much better league. So, one has to question what Keatts will be doing in the B10. IMO, he will be way in over his head. I don't really care how good of an offensive guru he may be because the Tom Izzo's of the world will catch on. What I care and what the fans should care about is finding a coach who will drastically improve this team's defense.
 
#4,640      
FollowTisdale
OrangeKrus28 said:
Ok, now that's a fair comparison. We all agree that UNC-Wilmington's offense is better. Their defense is not and in the B10, you need to be a defensive-minded team if you are going to have any success in this conference minus what Michigan has been able to do. So, for the Keatts' backers, how do you explain this? Not only is Illinois' current defense better(and they're pretty bad) but it is better in a much better league. So, one has to question what Keatts will be doing in the B10. IMO, he will be way in over his head. I don't really care how good of an offensive guru he may be because the Tom Izzo's of the world will catch on. What I care and what the fans should care about is finding a coach who will drastically improve this team's defense.
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You don't teach a Hype Train defense, the Hype Train runs you over at break neck speeds, faster than you can yell "MYERS!.. MOVE!!""
 
#4,641      
LurkLongandProsper
haasi said:
Amen.

(I also don't think you can totally count out significance of Hargrave - lots of exposure to top notch players, great success, understanding how recruiting works, launched him to top recruiting position at Louisville)
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Agree, and I'm a big believer in good coaching boiling down to beating the opponents on your schedule. He's done that consistently at every stop.

DoctorofJazz said:
The CAA is a weak league. Are you really that impressed with a championship in a league with such basketball "powerhouses" such as Delaware, Towson, and William & Mary?

What I'm saying is I'd rather we go after someone who has proven experience building a program. Preferably in a league with decent basketball.
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9-23 to championship in a year is building a program, on a really accelerated schedule. Building what he built at Hargrave is as well. CAA isn't a top league, but what he's accomplished there as a coach is still impressive. It's near impossible to deny that.

TownieMatt said:
Given how attractive a high floor is right now, I would be fine with Counzo, especially because I think Counzo would be able to hit the ground running on the recruiting trail. Keatts is the more intriguing option to me based on how successful he's been in his short HC career, but it might take him a bit longer to get things going.
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OrangeKrus28 said:
Exactly and quite frankly, time is no luxury for this program. Students/fans/alumni wants results ASAP, not 3 years from now, which is exactly why Keatts is not the fit for this program.
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Others have covered this point, but there's really nothing supporting the argument that the build time for Cuonzo and Keatts is different, or that we can firmly say it is better for Cuonzo. Just look at Cuonzo's first year at his various stops. 19 wins at his best in a year 1. Not really the quick starter people are claiming him to be.

OrangeKrus28 said:
In a lower level conference that just lost VCU, George Mason, and ODU within the last 5 years? Any respectable coach could do that. There's a difference between being a respectable coach and a savior. He's not the savior, I can assure you of that. What Jim Larranaga did was way more impressive considering that he took Mason to a final 4 and did so while beating the likes of ODU and VCU, who were perennial mid major powers on a yearly basis to get to that point.
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9-23 the year before he arrived. Here, I'll put this onus on you. You made the claim "any respectable coach could do that", go find me five coaches who coached at a midmajor and turned it from bottom 5 conf to a conference title in their first year. Support your argument. Tired of reading baseless claims. If you don't want to take the time, maybe you don't believe there are many respectable coaches out there?

OrangeKrus28 said:
To prove that no one has much of an idea about Kevin Keatts, let's analyze the following:
UNC Wilmington:
Offensive rank: 11th----in a low level conference---86.1 ppg scored
Defensive rank: 242nd in the country----74.8 ppg given up

Now, with those stats in mind, can someone explain to me how you expect Kevin Keatts to miraculously solve the defensive struggles of Leron Black/Michael Finke/JCL if his current team is worse on defense than the Fighting Illini? Is he going to outscore the opposition? Not in the B10. Ready...set...go...
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per game statistics are not appropriate measures. Tempo or per possession adjusted statistics are the way to do it. Have his defenses at UNCW been incredible? No. Have his offenses? Pretty damn good. Who's to say his defenses won't improve with better athletes? I'm not going to say it, but if we want to make leap of faith conclusions, there's one you could make, especially seeing as he likes to run a pressing scheme defensively a la Louisville.
 
#4,642      
haasi
ILHoff said:
While it is impressive what he has done, we'll have to disagree that it is less impressive to do it in a very down conference. I'm curious to know why he is considered such a good recruiter?
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So here's a snippet from an article:
Jeff Goodman, a college basketball Insider for ESPN recently surveyed more than 200 college coaches and got their thoughts on who the most feared assistant coaches are on the recruiting trail. In an Insider article on Wednesday afternoon, Goodman ranked the top 21 most feared assistant coaches based on the feedback he got from the college coaches. Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts came in at No 3.

3. Kevin Keatts, Louisville
It hasn’t taken the former Hargrave Military Academy prep school coach long to make his mark at the college ranks. He had a fairly brief stint as an assistant at Marshall, but he’s already pulled Montrezl Harrell, Luke Hancock, (transfer from George Mason) Chris Jones, Terry Rozier and Anton Gill in his first three seasons under Rick Pitino. He also helped the Cards land a pledge from highly ranked guard JaQuan Lyle. Without Keatts getting Hancock and Harrell, Louisville doesn’t cut down the nets last season.
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http://www.thecardinalconnect.com/louisville-assistant-kevin-keatts-feared-on-the-recruiting-trail/

I think his rep mainly built on his performance at Louisville as an asst. His recruiting at UNCW hasn't been anything extraordinary (based on player rankings - although clearly he's doing good things with these guys, so maybe he's good at identifying underappreciated talent. Harrell was ranked around 80th, a 4 star, and ended up an NBA player).

I guess if I had a concern it would be that at least two of his important Louisville recruits were guys he was already connected to at Hargrave (Harrell, Rozier). So maybe he wouldn't replicate results now, having been out of high level prep coaching for many years. That said, his rep is stellar.
 
#4,644      
LurkLongandProsper
haasi said:
So here's a snippet from an article:


http://www.thecardinalconnect.com/louisville-assistant-kevin-keatts-feared-on-the-recruiting-trail/

I think his rep mainly built on his performance at Louisville as an asst. His recruiting at UNCW hasn't been anything extraordinary (based on player rankings - although clearly he's doing good things with these guys, so maybe he's good at identifying underappreciated talent. Harrell was ranked around 80th, a 4 star, and ended up an NBA player).

I guess if I had a concern it would be that at least two of his important Louisville recruits were guys he was already connected to at Hargrave (Harrell, Rozier). So maybe he wouldn't replicate results now, having been out of high level prep coaching for many years. That said, his rep is stellar.
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247Sports credits him as the leading recruiter for this list, with Anton Gill as the only Hargrave kid, fwiw. Having a pipeline into Hargrave certainly wouldn't be a bad thing, by the way
 
#4,645      
Charleston
FollowTisdale said:
If a guy with a very impressive pedigree walks onto a AA minor league roster and hits 50 bombs and swipes 30 bases you don't say "yea but it's just the minor leagues" you say "get that man on the big league roster, now!"
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But if he flops at the big-league level, you can always send him back down to the minors as soon as need be. You can't do that with a head coach.
 
#4,646      
Illiniwek06
OrangeKrus28 said:
Ok, now that's a fair comparison. We all agree that UNC-Wilmington's offense is better. Their defense is not and in the B10, you need to be a defensive-minded team if you are going to have any success in this conference minus what Michigan has been able to do. So, for the Keatts' backers, how do you explain this? Not only is Illinois' current defense better(and they're pretty bad) but it is better in a much better league. So, one has to question what Keatts will be doing in the B10. IMO, he will be way in over his head. I don't really care how good of an offensive guru he may be because the Tom Izzo's of the world will catch on. What I care and what the fans should care about is finding a coach who will drastically improve this team's defense.
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I haven't had the opportunity to watch UNCW this year, but I'm not sure you will find a satisfactory answer.

Illinois' defense is marginally better (12 spots across 351 teams, or 3% difference), and you are using that point to assert that Keatts will fail in the B1G. You then dismiss entirely the fact that UNCW is significantly better on offense (161 spots, or 46% difference) because it doesn't fit your narrative of "Keatts will be way in over his head."

As has been stated ad nauseam on this thread, yes, every candidate will have risks. But, again, I fail to see how people are concluding that "length of time to turn program around" is a positive for Cuonzo and a negative for Keatts.
 
#4,647      
OrangeKrus28
haasi said:
So here's a snippet from an article:


http://www.thecardinalconnect.com/louisville-assistant-kevin-keatts-feared-on-the-recruiting-trail/

I think his rep mainly built on his performance at Louisville as an asst. His recruiting at UNCW hasn't been anything extraordinary (based on player rankings - although clearly he's doing good things with these guys, so maybe he's good at identifying underappreciated talent. Harrell was ranked around 80th, a 4 star, and ended up an NBA player).

I guess if I had a concern it would be that at least two of his important Louisville recruits were guys he was already connected to at Hargrave (Harrell, Rozier). So maybe he wouldn't replicate results now, having been out of high level prep coaching for many years. That said, his rep is stellar.
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Recruiting reputation...hmmm...sounds similar to our current coach during his time at Ohio St. Next, you said it yourself, Harrell and Rozier were connected to him and those two guys both made it to the NBA. So, he had more connections than he did skill in recruiting.
 
#4,648      
OrangeKrus28
Illiniwek06 said:
I haven't had the opportunity to watch UNCW this year, but I'm not sure you will find a satisfactory answer.

Illinois' defense is marginally better (12 spots across 351 teams, or 3% difference), and you are using that point to assert that Keatts will fail in the B1G. You then dismiss entirely the fact that UNCW is significantly better on offense (161 spots, or 46% difference) because it doesn't fit your narrative of "Keatts will be way in over his head."

As has been stated ad nauseam on this thread, yes, every candidate will have risks. But, again, I fail to see how people are concluding that "length of time to turn program around" is a positive for Cuonzo and a negative for Keatts.
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His offensive juggernaut in the weakly Colonial Athletic Association will not be the same juggernaut in the mighty B10 where the coaches are better and will be able to dissect and figure him out. The more concerning stat is that his teams stink on defense and do so in a poor conference. So, that doesn't compare well to moving into a major conference like the B10. That's my point. It is not hard to read between the lines. If he becomes Illinois' coach, his team's defenses will be awful and his offense adjusted to the B10 level will be above average. Above average offense cannot make up for a poor defense.
 
#4,649      
OrangeAndBlues
Illiniwek06 said:
As has been stated ad nauseam on this thread, yes, every candidate will have risks. But, again, I fail to see how people are concluding that "length of time to turn program around" is a positive for Cuonzo and a negative for Keatts.
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What if I don't like either of them?
 
#4,650      
LurkLongandProsper
OrangeKrus28 said:
Ok, now that's a fair comparison. We all agree that UNC-Wilmington's offense is better. Their defense is not and in the B10, you need to be a defensive-minded team if you are going to have any success in this conference minus what Michigan has been able to do. So, for the Keatts' backers, how do you explain this? Not only is Illinois' current defense better(and they're pretty bad) but it is better in a much better league. So, one has to question what Keatts will be doing in the B10. IMO, he will be way in over his head. I don't really care how good of an offensive guru he may be because the Tom Izzo's of the world will catch on. What I care and what the fans should care about is finding a coach who will drastically improve this team's defense.
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You don't need to be an elite defense if your team is top 20 offensively to be successful in the P5.

UCLA is 21-3 and 10th nationally with a tempo adjusted offense ranked first and tempo adjusted defense ranked 128th. But that's also assuming both of those numbers will transfer with Keatts.

Wanna guess what John Groce's defensive efficiency was the year before we hired him from Ohio?

.
.
.

It was 35th on KenPom and 32nd on the tempo-adjusted per teamrankings.

These things don't just carry over. If it was, let's walk into the gym at Saint Mary's, drop a briefcase with a blank check, and hire Randy Bennett, who has his team at 10th and 2nd on KenPom and TeamRankings for Offensive Efficiency, and 45th and 19th on those sites for Defensive Efficiency.
 
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