2017 Coaching Carousel

LurkLongandProsper · Feb 8, 2017

MadSeason said:
I think he's gone too and i don't think this team can sustain a win streak but I dont think we are as far out of tourney consideration as you do however. We are buoyed by strong strength of schedule and our RPI jumped double digits after last night into the 50's. Win 5 of 6 and I think we are on bubble heading into BTT.

But i dont think we will win 5 of 6

You're right, you probably don't need a 9 game streak, but I feel fairly confident saying we need at least two BTT wins regardless. The reality is even with a win streak, we have zero wins over locked in tournament teams right now. Northwestern of course being the closest to a lock of anyone we've beat, I think they're in, even if S&C swears they'll choke.

(I hope they make it, don't @ me)

We have to get some good wins at some point. I don't like citing RPI, it's well documented you can schedule yourself into a top 50 RPI basically independent of the win-loss record, and we seem to have successfully done that. It was discussed when the schedule was announced that that was basically what the staff had done. But for all you 'eye-test' fans, if we go into the bubble with all of our wins in conference against the bottom of the B1G, you still have to find a way to collect either a good win, or a lot of wins, and regardless we probably need two BTT wins, IMO.

golferjohn1970 said:
This might be the best recruiting class that Illinois has had since maybe 2002 when they got Dee and Deron Williams. Tilmon is a top 30 player and Frazier is a top 100 guy and Williams is not to far from that. This is a top 10 class and for Illinois that says a lot. I think that coupled with going to the tourney saves his job for one more year.

Seriously people, it's not even a top 10 class anymore. (11th, has been for months), But that's pedantics, because Groce isn't making the tournament anyways.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 8, 2017

golferjohn1970 said:
This might be the best recruiting class that Illinois has had since maybe 2002 when they got Dee and Deron Williams. Tilmon is a top 30 player and Frazier is a top 100 guy and Williams is not to far from that. This is a top 10 class and for Illinois that says a lot. I think that coupled with going to the tourney saves his job for one more year.

First of all, as an FYI you don't have to fill out the "subject" line when you post in a thread.

Second, the incoming class (ranked #11 by 247) is not appreciably better than 2010 (#11) or 2011 (#10). Even 2013 (#14) and 2015 (#16) are in the same ball park.

It does have some key components in a big man and scoring PG but overall it's not a job saver.

Tygor · Feb 8, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
His first year, they were something like #10 entering conference play, with a Maui invite win, @ Gonzaga win, etc. ENTIRELY different scenario. We also beat #1 IU to get to 3-7, iirc. We don't have a tournament resume right now, we seriously would have to rattle off something like a 9 game streak (including last night) to get in.

In short, Groce is done. We all knew that after Minnesota. Wins from here on out are to be celebrated for the players, but not going to save John Groce.

If we win out and make the BTT semis, we have a real chance at the tournament because the bubble is the worst of ALL-TIME. Do I think it will happen? No. But 21-12 (10-8) a top 10 SOS and RPI probably in the 30s would likely be enough.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

Tygor said:
If we win out and make the BTT semis, we have a real chance at the tournament because the bubble is the worst of ALL-TIME. Do I think it will happen? No. But 21-12 (10-8) a top 10 SOS and RPI probably in the 30s would likely be enough.

We are not currently even in the last 8 out. Let it go.

golferjohn1970 · Feb 8, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
You're right, you probably don't need a 9 game streak, but I feel fairly confident saying we need at least two BTT wins regardless. The reality is even with a win streak, we have zero wins over locked in tournament teams right now. Northwestern of course being the closest to a lock of anyone we've beat, I think they're in, even if S&C swears they'll choke.

(I hope they make it, don't @ me)

We have to get some good wins at some point. I don't like citing RPI, it's well documented you can schedule yourself into a top 50 RPI basically independent of the win-loss record, and we seem to have successfully done that. It was discussed when the schedule was announced that that was basically what the staff had done. But for all you 'eye-test' fans, if we go into the bubble with all of our wins in conference against the bottom of the B1G, you still have to find a way to collect either a good win, or a lot of wins, and regardless we probably need two BTT wins, IMO.

Seriously people, it's not even a top 10 class anymore. (11th, has been for months), But that's pedantics, because Groce isn't making the tournament anyways.

I agree that this team will lose more games and be eliminated from all possibilities with the tourney soon. That may happen as early as Saturday who knows.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 8, 2017

Tygor said:
If we win out and make the BTT semis, we have a real chance at the tournament because the bubble is the worst of ALL-TIME. Do I think it will happen? No. But 21-12 (10-8) a top 10 SOS and RPI probably in the 30s would likely be enough.

Sure, we'd be in easily in that scenario.

OrangeAndBlues said:
We are not currently even in the last 8 out. Let it go.

Win Saturday and we'll start re-appearing in the projections.

EJ33 · Feb 8, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
That's why I included both talent and experience. For the season we're talking about giving him, it's unlikely to match what he has right now.

Yes.

A big consideration for Whitman is that next season may be worse, so we're just going to go through this again if he retains Groce. People continue to over-estimate the impact of the recruits.

For the people who want to keep Groce because of his recruiting prowess, how's that 2018 class looking?

FollowTisdale · Feb 8, 2017

Oh boy, this place is like a Groce addict support club with people having relapses all over the place. The guy is fired, and no amount of wins over an average NW team in their high school gym while missing their best player is going to save him. This season is the median of John Groce coached Illinois teams, and if this is what you want to see moving forward, please just shoot me now.

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

LurkLongandProsper said:
His first year, they were something like #10 entering conference play, with a Maui invite win, @ Gonzaga win, etc. ENTIRELY different scenario. We also beat #1 IU to get to 3-7, iirc. We don't have a tournament resume right now, we seriously would have to rattle off something like a 9 game streak (including last night) to get in.

In short, Groce is done. We all knew that after Minnesota. Wins from here on out are to be celebrated for the players, but not going to save John Groce.

I'm not arguing that we will make the tourney because I don't think they'll win out. But if they did win out I think that we'd have a strong case. Currently 11th in Strength of Schedule, 54th RPI, and 66th KenPom. Obviously, all of those rankings would be boosted if we win out, so with as weak as the bubble is I don't see how that wouldn't be enough to get them in.

EJ33 · Feb 8, 2017

HC Illini said:
I'm not arguing that we will make the tourney because I don't think they'll win out. But if they did win out I think that we'd have a strong case. Currently 11th in Strength of Schedule, 54th RPI, and 66th KenPom. Obviously, all of those rankings would be boosted if we win out, so with as weak as the bubble is I don't see how that wouldn't be enough to get them in.

"If we win out" pretty much sums up the Groce era.

haasi · Feb 8, 2017

"If we win out" pretty much sums up the Groce era.

How painfully true.

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

EJ33 said:
Yes.

A big consideration for Whitman is that next season may be worse, so we're just going to go through this again if he retains Groce. People continue to over-estimate the impact of the recruits.

For the people who want to keep Groce because of his recruiting prowess, how's that 2018 class looking?

But we will have much more talent on next year's team. Our current team doesn't reap the benefits that most experienced teams do. We will have better athletes (meaning more capable defenders) and better scorers. And with any luck some players with that Killer in em.

haasi · Feb 8, 2017

Kajagoogoo said:
Is it time to bet on whether Groce is retained?

Sure. Given that you are 100% certain he's gone, you can't possibly lose. I assume you will be ok with 100000 to 1 odds. You get $1 if he goes. I get $100k if he keeps his job. It's basically a free dollar

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Holy cow, people.

He is gone regardless. They are not making the tournament. And if Groce is back there is NO WAY Smith is coming here. This is fairytale territory.

So are you saying that you have inside info that our only shot at landing Mark Smith is if Groce is gone?

NickWeatherspoon · Feb 8, 2017

Kajagoogoo said:
I'm telling you, it's done. Whitman has already TALKED to candidates. You don't go that far unless you've moved on. It would be extremely odd to do a 180 and keep Groce then call those candidates back and say, "My bad! I guess I jumped the gun there. Oops!"

I don't think JW has spoken with any candidates yet.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

HC Illini said:
So are you saying that you have inside info that our only shot at landing Mark Smith is if Groce is gone?

I'm saying I have common sense, which seems to have gone out the window here after a mediocre win last night.

ShellbackMB · Feb 8, 2017

Kajagoogoo said:
I'm telling you, it's done. Whitman has already TALKED to candidates. You don't go that far unless you've moved on. It would be extremely odd to do a 180 and keep Groce then call those candidates back and say, "My bad! I guess I jumped the gun there. Oops!"

GOOD! And thank you for sharing. And being rational.

EJ33 · Feb 8, 2017

HC Illini said:
But we will have much more talent on next year's team. Our current team doesn't reap the benefits that most experienced teams do. We will have better athletes (meaning more capable defenders) and better scorers. And with any luck some players with that Killer in em.

Maybe that's true.

Or, maybe next February you'll realize we just don't have enough experience for Groce's "systems." Maybe Groce will just need one more year to teach his system to the new players. And you'll be talking about the impact of the shiny new top 100ish recruits that will make us even better. By February you'll be right back to If we win out...

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
I'm saying I have common sense, which seems to have gone out the window here after a mediocre win last night.

This is a message forum - I don't think anyone is saying we think it will happen. Most people are saying "if" it were to happen we think Groce would stay. But it won't happen so no worries.

I was just inquiring on this very bold statement about smith, with hopes that you were going to tell me Smith is waiting to see if there is a new coach hired and then would commit.

HC Illini · Feb 8, 2017

EJ33 said:
Maybe that's true.

Or, maybe next February you'll realize we just don't have enough experience for Groce's "systems." Maybe Groce will just need one more year to teach his system to the new players. And you'll be talking about the impact of the shiny new top 100ish recruits that will make us even better. By February you'll be right back to If we win out...

Again. Wasn't saying I want Groce to stay. I was just noting that the talent of our recruiting class is better than what we currently have. Or at least I hope, because if not it's not a good recruiting class.

haasi · Feb 8, 2017

Kajagoogoo said:
Technically, maybe not. But I've talked to enough people who have hinted that he's reached out to gauge interest. He's certainly talked to boosters (and likely Khan), and people that are smarter than me hint that he's sent out feelers to candidates (or perhaps their agents). The wheels certainly seem to be in motion. If you have contradictory info, feel free to PM me.

I don't remotely doubt that he's put out feelers, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's directly spoken to candidates in confidence. That doesn't mean it's a done deal, and any potential candidates of course know that. It is very likely Groce gets canned, and Whitman is smart enough to start planning enough time in advance to get the best possible result he can achieve. But that doesn't mean anyone, including Whitman, knows the future with certainty. You can't possibly think that there is no conceivable circumstance under which Groce keeps his job. If you do, please take my bet at 100,000 to 1 odds. Groce's back is firmly pinned to the wall right now, but the 10 count has not yet been called.

FeelYourPaign · Feb 8, 2017

I for one would prefer that all of the "if we win out, will we make the tourney?" posts go to the bracketology thread. I doubt that anyone in the B1G wins out and I highly doubt that if it is done, it is done by a team in the bottom quartile. So, let's just shelve that would be my preference. Or talk about it in the smoke filled bracketology room.

Rant over.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 8, 2017

haasi said:
I don't remotely doubt that he's put out feelers, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's directly spoken to candidates in confidence. That doesn't mean it's a done deal, and any potential candidates of course know that. It is very likely Groce gets canned, and Whitman is smart enough to start planning enough time in advance to get the best possible result he can achieve. But that doesn't mean anyone, including Whitman, knows the future with certainty. You can't possibly think that there is no conceivable circumstance under which Groce keeps his job. If you do, please take my bet at 100,000 to 1 odds. Groce's back is firmly pinned to the wall right now, but the 10 count has not yet been called.

I do actually. Beyond any shadow of a doubt.

Tygor · Feb 8, 2017

I think the people on here who are talking about tournament chances aren't saying it in that Groce should be retained, because I'm willing to guess most would still rather see someone else in charge. It's a testament to how much we love the school and program that we want to strive for greatness. That's a tougher sell for Whitman to fire Groce if we win 8-9 in a row, make the tournament and look like a great team finally.

Just typing that "if we win 8-9 in a row" is laughable and is never going to happen (we likely won't be NW at home). But the "Groce is already done" message isn't quite true yet, contrary to what most of us want to believe. Additionally, in my honest opinion, Groce making the tournament somehow is likely the worst thing for our program right now. I'll still cheer for it to happen, but yeah.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 8, 2017

HC Illini said:
Again. Wasn't saying I want Groce to stay. I was just noting that the talent of our recruiting class is better than what we currently have. Or at least I hope, because if not it's not a good recruiting class.

Not sure it's significantly better. For next year you really only expect to get contributions from Tilmon and Frazier as Williams is rehabbing an ACL and Pickett is not likely ready. Do those 2 replace what you lost from Hill and Mav? Doubtful, IMO. Tilmon might be better on D, but freshmen tend to struggle with fouls. Frazier isn't going to come close to replacing Hill's production. Can probably also count on some improvement from Lucas and Nichols.

Longer term probably depends on how long Tilmon stays, how good Williams is and if you can add another guy like Smith.