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They've dumped a truckload of $$$ into renovations over the last 2+ years. I don't think they go mid-major hire. I think they will be shooting for the moon.....JMO.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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They've dumped a truckload of $$$ into renovations over the last 2+ years. I don't think they go mid-major hire. I think they will be shooting for the moon.....JMO.
^ Tevo basically spelled out why I believe firmly in "beat the teams on your schedule" as being important, and you can't really ask much more of him in that department.
The BIGGEST area of concern for a coach when jumping from CAA to a P5 conference, in my opinion, is how they do handling a wider recruiting area, additional resources, etc. You're now recruiting nationally, not in driving distance (for the most part), bigger campuses and more distractions for your players, etc. You have to be able to manage a program and coordinate those sorts of details, which is where a lot of guys can find themselves trip up.
In my opinion, that is not something that feels like a risk with Keatts. Solid experience at Louisville (heck, UL is investing more into their program than we are, no?), high level success at lower levels as well, and so it boils down to if you really think he can't be competitive against the other coaches in the conference. For some, that may require tournament wins to prove it to yourself (I view an 8 point loss to a stacked, elite 8 bound Duke team last year as a positive for Keatts, seeing as he entered the game facing a 9.5 point spread (per this BR article). If you bet on UNCW in that game last year, you would've won money!
I just don't see any glaring holes in his resume right now, and if he can get a tournament win this year, I'm all in. You have to dig and point at the fact their defense isn't elite to find a hole, and point at no NCAAT wins* to find major issues on his resume.
* at a CAA school! Cuonzo got Tennessee with no NCAAT appearancesat an MVC school, so seems like some unfair expectations and inconsistent benchmarks being applied here
The BIGGEST area of concern for a coach when jumping from CAA to a P5 conference, in my opinion, is how they do handling a wider recruiting area, additional resources, etc. You're now recruiting nationally, not in driving distance (for the most part), bigger campuses and more distractions for your players, etc. You have to be able to manage a program and coordinate those sorts of details, which is where a lot of guys can find themselves trip up.
In my opinion, that is not something that feels like a risk with Keatts. Solid experience at Louisville (heck, UL is investing more into their program than we are, no?), high level success at lower levels as well, and so it boils down to if you really think he can't be competitive against the other coaches in the conference. For some, that may require tournament wins to prove it to yourself (I view an 8 point loss to a stacked, elite 8 bound Duke team last year as a positive for Keatts, seeing as he entered the game facing a 9.5 point spread (per this BR article). If you bet on UNCW in that game last year, you would've won money!
I just don't see any glaring holes in his resume right now, and if he can get a tournament win this year, I'm all in. You have to dig and point at the fact their defense isn't elite to find a hole, and point at no NCAAT wins* to find major issues on his resume.
* at a CAA school! Cuonzo got Tennessee with no NCAAT appearancesat an MVC school, so seems like some unfair expectations and inconsistent benchmarks being applied here
Umm, except for the most glaring hole of all: he hasn't coached a Power 5 school.
He's assistant coached in the P5, and this sounds like the joke with modern day entry level. "You need 5 years experience for this entry level job". He can't have P5 HC experience without someone giving him a P5 job at some point.
Archie Miller, Gregg Marshall, Monty Williams all haven't head coached a P5 school either. Are you turning away all of those candidates too? Bill Self hadn't when we hired him either.
Previous P5 HC experience is an unnecessary requirement you're imposing. You can use it as a way to order your candidates, that's your prerogative. But it's not necessarily an indicator of success, and the coaches who are incredibly successful at their P5 stops don't move around a whole lot except to go to blue bloods. People are afraid of mediocrity (yes mattcoldagelli, I know that'd be an upgrade for us right now
) but want to hire guys from P5 who aren't winning their conferences, making deep tournament runs, just because they're already at the P5 level and we know they're "safe". OK! Your prerogative. And did you even read my post? I pointed out the major differences between CAA and P5. It's resources. I said there's no reason not to believe he can't make that leap, with supporting logic. What more do you want? :tsk:
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I agree with what Tevo said 100% so I would not be bothered at all if Illinois hired Keatts. Having said that, I do believe that Whitman will make a serious pitch for a much bigger name. Of course similar to last time around, due to our program slippage he may not be able to secure his top candidates. Keatts may well end up being the new Illinois coach but he will almost certainly not be the first one offered. That said, he would be a pretty good fall back plan.
The right person for the job is the right person for the job. We won't get a perfect coach, they will have flaws, but whomever we get needs to be ready to coach well, recruit well, and handle adversity well.
Look at the Whitman hire, we went after bigger fish but he stood out for a reason, he was the right candidate. Not perfect, but the right hire.
Look at the Whitman hire, we went after bigger fish but he stood out for a reason, he was the right candidate. Not perfect, but the right hire.
The breakdown is appreciated. At least I can tell that you have a reason and basis for why you think he may be a good candidate. I think there are many people here who are getting on his bandwagon because of word of mouth, so it is refreshing to get a breakdown of some of his team's strengths. My concern offensively would be a reliance on the 3 pt. shot. That famous phrase of live by the 3 and die by the 3 is not a way to sustain a program for the long haul. I think you're starting to see that a little bit with Michigan now.
I would honestly rather an eight man rotation than a ten unless we are pressing every position and trying to score 100 points where stamina is an issue. I think there are too many egos and benching hot hands in trying to build an army for the future instead of playing 7-8 guys who just get the job done. Sure, foul trouble or an injury hurts and that's the risk, but I've seen enough of guys playing after not seeing the floor for games at a time in key moments (even starting). JMO though.
That's not entirely accurate, Michigan's not fading because of their offense. They are hurting because they don't have McGary or GRIII on defense. Their offense is top 15 on kenpom (currently 11). I never understood why Beilein has so much trouble recruiting strong big men, because even freaking Ricky Doyle was effective in that offense. His runner up team a few years ago was #39 in defense and #1 offensively. So just a drop in defense has hurt them, but they're still doing fine offensively. Also, if Keatts ended up being Beilein and recruited better than he has, we'd be in business.
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Capel's been discussed, a lot of people tie his OU success to Blake Griffin exclusively and don't think he's more than that (I disagree), and his poor run as the interim HC (interim HCing ANYWHERE is a hard gig) at Duke quieted discussion on him, but I still think he'd be a solid candidate. Really nice work at VCU, solid run at OU with a questionable end, and one of the better recruiters in the country.
Rozier committed to Louisville before attending Hargrave, which he did for a post high school year due to grades.
I think this is extremely unlikely (like, less than 1 percent chance), but what if Monty Williams is the hire and he brings in a staff of Randy Ayers and Anthony Grant to go with Jamal Walker, then adds Ryan Ayers as directer of bball operations? That would be a dynamite staff and send a huge message about where the program is heading.
The future of the game at both the pro and college levels is 3pt-reliant offenses. Analytics are driving trends and demanding the reevaluation of conventional basketball wisdom. Going forward, the game is going to be all about maximizing true shooting efficiency, forcing opponents to shoot from 15-19 feet, and generating more possessions than your opponent. There are multiple strategic paths to achieve those outcomes (which is why only pace adjusted stats should really be considered when looking at team trends). At the end of the day, though, the main points are: 1) confine your shots to within 3 feet of the basket or beyond the 3pt line, 2) create offense in transition (because it leads to layups, open 3-pointers, and free throws), 3) force opposing offenses to take inefficient shots, 4) use your possessions in a more efficient way than your opponent, 5) force more turnovers than you commit (and, really, bad shots count almost the same way - essentially, if you have a greater number of efficiently used possessions than your opponent, you win most of the time).
Capel inherited a good OU team from Sampson and eventually ruined it. No thanks.
Yeah, looking at UNCW's sports-reference advanced stat pages, you can see some where they're clearly aware of what analytics tell you about the game nowadays. As I'd said in my original post, they're lacking in the getting to the line part of the equation, but it's not actually hurting their efficiency, so hard to argue. Surprisingly, UCLA is also not getting to the line at a high rate (lower than UNCW's!) despite being the #1 offense.
Sleepy Floyd
Kicking it with Fat Lever
- Champaign
http://slam.ly/asoc46 Article on Muslemam and Nevada from slam.
If we hire any NBA guy, you're going to see a star studded lineup of assistants. Probably not as loaded as that trio. I also don't think Walker stays if we hire an NBA coach, or someone like Bennett/Marshall. Those guys are gonna have so much pull that they are going to want 100% control--as they should. Walker's chances of staying if we hire a P5 or higher coach are essentially 0, with Cuonzo as the exception, maybe.
The trio you've spelled out would be very reminiscent of the Lovie hiring. Definitely a very Whitman-esque outcome. Hard to argue with that staff as a whole.
Good point, look how much Villanova struggles shooting all those 3s.
Musselman a possibility
I'd take Musselman over Monty as he has college experience and has turned Nevada around. The only thing I worry about is his ability to recruit Chicago but this guy can coach.
I'd take Musselman over Monty as he has college experience and has turned Nevada around. The only thing I worry about is his ability to recruit Chicago but this guy can coach.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I think I saw Mav slips screens twice during the NU game--once for a dunk and one for a layup, both within the span of a couple minutes. Then NU wised up and started defending it better.
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BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Thanks, Tevo, for taking the time to put into words almost exactly my reasoning for being all for Keatts as at or near the top of the list of coaches I'd want for Illinois. When you look closely at his resume, he's got everything you could ever want for a guy to make the jump from a lower level coaching gig to P5 coaching. He's been successful at every level he's coached at so far AND he's had plenty of exposure as an assistant to another very successful program and recruiting at that level. Many of the most successful coaches over the long term at P5 schools have a similar background and results prior to their first P5 coaching opportunity - John Beilein & Bo Ryan and two good examples from our own conference.
For My $ Marshall is the home run hire
I said it when Weber was let go and still for so today...Gregg Marshall is the best candidate out there and IF you can pull him in you are virtually guaranteeing a program with on court success. I am very intrigued by Keatts as well and think he is almost as good a candidate on paper albeit slightly less proven.
I personally don't care about NBA guys at all and would take both of the aforementioned over Hoiberg although I would not consider him a bad hire. I would put Martin in the category of not a bad hire (everyone would love the B1G and Illinois/Midwest connections) either but I hope/think Whitman can do better.
This entire process is very odd as the fan base has months to realize a new coach is likely coming and has had much time to vet out their favorites and shortcomings of candidates for the replacement. It makes Whitman's job that much more difficult imo.
I said it when Weber was let go and still for so today...Gregg Marshall is the best candidate out there and IF you can pull him in you are virtually guaranteeing a program with on court success. I am very intrigued by Keatts as well and think he is almost as good a candidate on paper albeit slightly less proven.
I personally don't care about NBA guys at all and would take both of the aforementioned over Hoiberg although I would not consider him a bad hire. I would put Martin in the category of not a bad hire (everyone would love the B1G and Illinois/Midwest connections) either but I hope/think Whitman can do better.
This entire process is very odd as the fan base has months to realize a new coach is likely coming and has had much time to vet out their favorites and shortcomings of candidates for the replacement. It makes Whitman's job that much more difficult imo.
Next Coach and Recruits
Oh, and let me add. I absolutely do not believe you can factor in who is hired and whether that can keep members of the next recruiting class. Talk of retaining Walker or hiring Martin because he could keep members of the current seem silly to me.
Of course, if Whitman can keep members of a solid class together then great but his 1st priority needs to be finding the best coach and allowing him to have his staff in place that fits his needs. If that coach is Cuonzo Martin in Whitman's opinion so be it but that decision cannot be based on keeping recruits now but on the entirety of hiring the best coach for the future of the program.
I will be ecstatic if the Illini could get Gregg Marshall and would risk losing the entire recruiting class if that is what it took because I know he would get the program where it needed to be.
Oh, and let me add. I absolutely do not believe you can factor in who is hired and whether that can keep members of the next recruiting class. Talk of retaining Walker or hiring Martin because he could keep members of the current seem silly to me.
Of course, if Whitman can keep members of a solid class together then great but his 1st priority needs to be finding the best coach and allowing him to have his staff in place that fits his needs. If that coach is Cuonzo Martin in Whitman's opinion so be it but that decision cannot be based on keeping recruits now but on the entirety of hiring the best coach for the future of the program.
I will be ecstatic if the Illini could get Gregg Marshall and would risk losing the entire recruiting class if that is what it took because I know he would get the program where it needed to be.
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