2017 Coaching Carousel

bleedsorangenblue · Feb 28, 2017

I felt at the beginning this was a 5 year rebuild project. While we are now in year 5, things have not always gone as smoothly as expected/hoped. Maybe this is a 6 year project. I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt if Whitman decides this is the course of action to take. If the teams trajectory next year is no different by the end of January next year, I will jump with both feet into the fire thread.

Having followed the team for many years and recruiting for the past few, one thing I have learned is that having the right talent to be competitive is everything. I don't think we have had the right talent until this year. It is disappointing that it has taken so long for this team to gel but the absence of KN for the first semester and TJL coming off an injury did have an effect. I know the argument is that it is all Groce's fault and that 5 years is long enough. In a perfect world, I would agree with you. Given all the things that have happened with the Illini, this has been a far from a perfect scenario.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
I think you're oversimplifying things here and combining several narratives.

If Whitman gave Groce a mandate to make the NCAAs and keep his job, then if Groce gets there it's perfectly reasonable for JW to keep his word and retain Groce. I'd have no issue with that.

Doesn't mean that I still don't think he's the right guy for the job going forward. His continued struggles with roster management, getting the right players on the court and inability to win in January just don't give me the confidence that he can get the program back to the upper half of the Big Ten on a consistent basis.

And having said that, it doesn't mean I'm right, either. Maybe Groce has figured things out and now has the kind of players he can win with. It's within the realm of possibilities, but I just don't think it's very likely.

That's the thing, no one knows who's right and who's wrong or what JW will do, but that doesn't stop people (not you) acting like they know what's right or what JW will do.

Call me an optimist or a Kool-Aid drinker, but one could say that Groce has taken basically the same team as last year, that finished 5-13, and has them close to reaching the NCAA tourney.

And before anyone can say this isn't the same team, consider this: Thorne has been basically non-existent this year in the BIG and we lost Nunn and Lewis and replaced them with TJL and Abrams. I consider all of that a wash.

The only real differences are that we have Black for the whole year and have added Kipper, so Groce has more options at the 3-4 than DJW, AJ and AA.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Maybe some of us don't like to participate in the circlejerk of benevolence when the answer isn't that complicated.

Lighten up Francis!

These things have a way of working themselves out and I trust JW to make the best decision for the program.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Haha I do too!

I have been straddling the fence for a while now and while I think that Groce may be finally turning the corner, I wonder if it might be too little too late.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 28, 2017

89illinigrad said:
I have been straddling the fence for a while now and while I think that Groce may be finally turning the corner, I wonder if it might be too little too late.

I know I seem like the negative nancy on here, but it's only because I have so much love for my university and I know how high it could be under right management.

That said, I genuinely, honestly do really like Groce and I wish he were the guy. He has a great passion and is a very respectable man that I know is a good role model for our students. I believe and hope he can turn it around at another program.

But as you said... it's too little, too late in my book.

champaignchris · Feb 28, 2017

89illinigrad said:
I have been straddling the fence for a while now and while I think that Groce may be finally turning the corner, I wonder if it might be too little too late.

If the team did turn itself around, it waited for quite literally the last possible moment that a turnaround might be relevant to do so.

There is the slimmest possible crack open that Groce and team will accomplish about what most thought they should at the beginning of the season.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

champaignchris said:
If the team did turn itself around, it waited for quite literally the last possible moment that a turnaround might be relevant to do so.

There is the slimmest possible crack open that Groce and team will accomplish about what most thought they should at the beginning of the season.

While that's probably true, if the team and Groce manages to squeeze through that crack and achieve their goal, would you be in favor of keeping him?

DMan42 · Feb 28, 2017

89illinigrad said:
Lighten up Francis!

These things have a way of working themselves out and I trust JW to make the best decision for the program.

I also think this will work itself out. I think we will just miss the tournament.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

EJ33 · Feb 28, 2017

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
I think you're oversimplifying things here and combining several narratives.

If Whitman gave Groce a mandate to make the NCAAs and keep his job, then if Groce gets there it's perfectly reasonable for JW to keep his word and retain Groce. I'd have no issue with that.

Doesn't mean that I still don't think he's the right guy for the job going forward. His continued struggles with roster management, getting the right players on the court and inability to win in January just don't give me the confidence that he can get the program back to the upper half of the Big Ten on a consistent basis.

And having said that, it doesn't mean I'm right, either. Maybe Groce has figured things out and now has the kind of players he can win with. It's within the realm of possibilities, but I just don't think it's very likely.

Agree with most of this.

We should assume the team will be worse next year, so get ready for the "2018 Coaching Carousel" thread if Groce stays. Of course 2018 recruiting is looking very weak, so at least that argument will be off the table.

ChiefIllini · Feb 28, 2017

EJ33 said:
We should assume the team will be worse next year, so get ready for the "2018 Coaching Carousel" thread if Groce stays. Of course 2018 recruiting is looking very weak, so at least that argument will be off the table.

I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

DMan42 · Feb 28, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

I think you glossed over losing a player who is averaging 17 points a game.

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FeelYourPaign · Feb 28, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

I have to disagree with this. We are now playing pretty well while playing 8 guys. Of those 8, three will be leaving (TA, MH and MM). I am assuming that DJW and AJ do not return. Could easily be wrong about that and I have absolutely no information, it is just my assumption. So, to be the same or better next year we need meaningful production from at least 3 out of 4 freshmen, one of whom is coming off of an injury year. And freshmen almost always under perform the board's lofty expectations in my experience.

Too many new pieces on a team that historically does not add new players well. Too few options beyond those 8 or 9. Highly unlikely, imo, that next year's squad doesn't take a step back.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

You've also got to consider what the other BIG teams will be losing and what recruits they're bringing in.

ChiefIllini · Feb 28, 2017

DMan42 said:
I think you glossed over losing a player who is averaging 17 points a game.

Sure, it's never easy to replace that kind of scoring, and the way he scores them is so sneaky that I probably am undervaluing someone who has a chance to score more here than Dee did. I just don't agree with the statement that we can just assume next years team is going to be worse.

The one thing next years group is really missing is a guy like Hill/Rice/Paul (to an extent)/etc. that can create their own shot. I'm not sure we are gonna have someone average 15+ pts next year. Our best bet is that our bigs can draw enough attention that our guards can get open looks, which I think is entirely possible.

TownieMatt · Feb 28, 2017

Let me apologize in advance for the length of this post, but I've been wanting to do this analysis for a while. To put some numbers behind the argument that Groce is underachieving with the talent he has, I created a chart comparing the talent level and on-court success. Here are the two things measured:

B1G Standing: Pretty straight forward, just the final B1G standing for each season (and current standing for this season)
Talent: This one is a little more complicated. To create a proxy for talent, I created a four-year average of the team's recruiting class ranking in the B1G, from 247Sports' Composite Rankings. For example, the talent metric for 2016-17 is the average B1G recruiting class ranking of 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Illinois

Based on this data, Groce has consistently underachieved given the talent available. Of course there are come caveats wth this data: the talent metric doesn't take into account players leaving early, transfers, injuries, etc. and suffers from the same bias as all recruit rankings services. But regardless, evidence points to Groce underachieving with very solid talent.

Let's compare this to some other programs and coaches over the same period:

Indiana

Indiana under Crean has been a roller-coaster, and this backs that up. Crean has gotten consistent talent since he got there, but results have fluctuated widly (just like his rosters).

Wisconsin

Wisconsin on the other hand (like we might expect) has wildly overachieved. You can definitely argue that they've found some gems recruiting (like Kaminsky) so the talent level here is artificially low. But regardless, Bo and not Gard have done a great job coaching up Wisc teams.

I have other examples I could add (like Purdue overachieving and MSU not) but for the sake of not making this any longer I'll stop here.

alaskaillini · Feb 28, 2017

Obelix said:
It's a good point, but we also have to consider that coming in, every coach would have to replace his senior class (2009 recruiting class for Groce). But Groce also had to replace the 2010 class (gone before he got there), the 2012 class (empty Weber class), and half of his 2011 class that had players who did not belong in the B1G (Ibby, Shaw, Langford). That is 3.5 classes from the get go, so he had to take some chances on transfers, it was not totally by design.

Yes, some of the people on here (W-L is all that matters, everything else is an excuse crowd) underestimate the magnitude of the task that Groce faced when coming here. Also explains why some other head coach candidates were not interested.

Illiniguy13 · Feb 28, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

But? But what? I swear, it's astounding how even our own fan-base downplays Malcolm's value...Mav and a freshman Tilmon are not a wash, especially offensively. Tilmon is the better defender but Mav plays a major role in terms of communication on the defensive end. Tilmon will get there and I have no doubt he'll be the better player when it's all said and done but it's going to take time. Color me pleasantly surprised if next year's team is better.

Jeffcobrad · Feb 28, 2017

I just think you need to get a new coach in here if you are going to do it so he has a chance to establish himself for an above average 2019 class.

89illinigrad · Feb 28, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Let me apologize in advance for the length of this post, but I've been wanting to do this analysis for a while. To put some numbers behind the argument that Groce is underachieving with the talent he has, I created a chart comparing the talent level and on-court success. Here are the two things measured:

B1G Standing: Pretty straight forward, just the final B1G standing for each season (and current standing for this season)

Talent: This one is a little more complicated. To create a proxy for talent, I created a four-year average of the team's recruiting class ranking in the B1G, from 247Sports' Composite Rankings. For example, the talent metric for 2016-17 is the average B1G recruiting class ranking of 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Illinois

Based on this data, Groce has consistently underachieved given the talent available. Of course there are come caveats wth this data: the talent metric doesn't take into account players leaving early, transfers, injuries, etc. and suffers from the same bias as all recruit rankings services. But regardless, evidence points to Groce underachieving with very solid talent.

Let's compare this to some other programs and coaches over the same period:

Indiana

Indiana under Crean has been a roller-coaster, and this backs that up. Crean has gotten consistent talent since he got there, but results have fluctuated widly (just like his rosters).

Wisconsin

Wisconsin on the other hand (like we might expect) has wildly overachieved. You can definitely argue that they've found some gems recruiting (like Kaminsky) so the talent level here is artificially low. But regardless, Bo and not Gard have done a great job coaching up Wisc teams.

I have other examples I could add (like Purdue overachieving and MSU not) but for the sake of not making this any longer I'll stop here.

Interesting stuff and well put together.

However, I wonder if you could just look at the talent of the PG's for each team and the results. In other words, is there a correlation between a team's starting PG's HS ranking and his college team's results.

ChiefIllini · Feb 28, 2017

FeelYourPaign said:
Too many new pieces on a team that historically does not add new players well. Too few options beyond those 8 or 9. Highly unlikely, imo, that next year's squad doesn't take a step back.

We added Nunn/Hill and TJL/Kipper pretty well. JCL/Finke were effective, albeit limited.

But its a coin flip. AJ, DJW, Black, etc. (everyone else) had somewhat rough frosh years, though AJ and DJW can blame it on a logjam at there positions. I also think a lot of guys take a step forward. Of those 8 guys in the rotation, 5 of them should be at least slightly improved. I said the odds are greater we finish with a worse record, I find it hard to believe we are going to be significantly worse.

alaskaillini · Feb 28, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Based on this data, Groce has consistently underachieved given the talent available. Of course there are come caveats wth this data: the talent metric doesn't take into account players leaving early, transfers, injuries, etc. and suffers from the same bias as all recruit rankings services. But regardless, evidence points to Groce underachieving with very solid talent.

It looks like your graph shows that Groce is narrowing the gap from the debacle that Weber left referenced by Obelix above. If we finish at 7th (still possible) then he will have closed it completely.

ILLHangOut · Feb 28, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Let me apologize in advance for the length of this post, but I've been wanting to do this analysis for a while. To put some numbers behind the argument that Groce is underachieving with the talent he has, I created a chart comparing the talent level and on-court success.

I have other examples I could add (like Purdue overachieving and MSU not) but for the sake of not making this any longer I'll stop here.

Appreciate the post! Would you mind including the talent metrics for next year's season?

Also, +1 for the PG request.

TownieMatt · Feb 28, 2017

alaskaillini said:
It looks like your graph shows that Groce is narrowing the gap from the debacle that Weber left referenced by Obelix above. If we finish at 7th (still possible) then he will have closed it completely.

If we did finish 7th, I think you could make an argument that that's about where this team belongs based on talent. That would be a step in the right direction, but it wouldn't excuse underachievement the last several seasons.

zpfled · Feb 28, 2017

ChiefIllini said:
I don't agree it will be noticeably worse. Hill is a great player and scorer and trully does do a lot to add to this team, but, with the exception of the dribbling and driving ability Hill has, I think Kipper can and will be just as competent at the 3. Mav->Tilmon is probably a wash, all things considered. Same with TA to Fraizer. Our defense should be much improved. Offensively I think we still struggle but if Black/Finke can up their scoring, I dont forsee much of a downtick.

I'm not saying we are gonna light it up on either end, but thinking next years team is going to have a tough time winning 5 or 6 B1G games is stretching the importance of the guys who are leaving. The team probably has higher odds of ending with a worse record than this year, but talent leaving is not that much greater than talent coming in, not to mentioned that of which is retained.

Losing Hill is going to suck, and we don't have anyone who will replace him directly. It's hard to say how the team will come together though. We'll be able to play two PGs at the same time with Lucas and Frazier. JCL should improve incrementally, and he's already a dangerous outside threat. Can Kipper become a Ray Rice kind of player? Will we get Mark Smith, giving us the ability to play at least 2 PGs at all times if we want?

TownieMatt · Feb 28, 2017

ILLHangOut said:
Appreciate the post! Would you mind including the talent metrics for next year's season?

Also, +1 for the PG request.

Can definitely post where the talent metric has next year's teams, but keep in mind that any player attrition (like players leaving for the NBA) wouldn't be captured.

The PG request would take a lot more time, so no promises on that one, but I like the suggestion. It's certainly logical that PGs have more influence on winning and losing.

2017 Coaching Carousel

bleedsorangenblue

89illinigrad

89illinigrad

89illinigrad

OrangeAndBlues

champaignchris

89illinigrad

DMan42

EJ33

ChiefIllini

DMan42

FeelYourPaign

89illinigrad

ChiefIllini

TownieMatt

CU Expat

alaskaillini

Illiniguy13

Jeffcobrad

89illinigrad

ChiefIllini

alaskaillini

ILLHangOut

TownieMatt

CU Expat

zpfled

TownieMatt

CU Expat