37% say keep based on the poll.
That's an alternative fact.!!
37% say keep based on the poll.
One thing I've been pondering is that not firing Groce probably means extending him for three years on a relatively small buyout (as discussed plenty throughout this thread), but it likely also means giving him somewhat of a pass next year. We only bring back three upperclassmen who have proven to be Big Ten contributors (JCL, Black, Finke), and so far they all look like role players. Lucas and Nichols have bright futures, but they don't appear to be guys who will make all-conference teams as sophs. AJ and DJW are mysteries at this point.
That team, plus 4-5 freshmen and maybe a grad transfer or two will not be expected to make the tourney. If Groce keeps them competitive and wins 15+ games he'll be back in 2018-19.
The doomsday scenario for the program is this: we beat RU, win against Michigan or Iowa in the BTT, keep it close against Purdue, and end up in the last four out with a final record of 20-13 (#1 seed in the NIT). Groce is retained despite missing the tournament. In 2017-18 we struggle, but finish strong and make the NIT with 18 wins. We come into 2018-19 with high expectations - probably ranked in the preseason - and then it becomes finally, abundantly clear that Groce is out of his league. We straddle the bubble and end up on the wrong side before Groce is dismissed after missing the NCAAT six times in a row.
I don't think it will go down like that, but imagining the possibility helps me understand why some people are so adamant that Groce has to go this year basically no matter what. Six years of NCAA futility should be inconceivable at Illinois.
I was in the "Fire Groce unless an Elite Eight run happens camp" (if there was one) and had been wavering the past week.
Your post has put me right back in the cut ties no matter what because your scenario is way too possible, and that's not a good thing.
Tupper chimes in: How did Illini do this? Here's four changes that worked
And...
#5 Groce taught Leron Black how to be a great three point shooter over the last 2 weeks
yea...I think I'm off the Cuonzo train. He can recruit, but apparently even with NBA players on his roster, he can't beat Utah.
Also to consider, for those impressed with the current run.
Team/KenPom/RPI
Iowa/70/73
Northwestern/36/46
MSU/50/45
Nebraska/94/88
None are ranked.
1 is "safely" in the tournament (Northwestern)
One is "likely" in the tournament (MSU)
The win streak is great and I'm cheering for a tourney birth. But it's bad enough that it's such a small sample size, it's also against teams ranging from decent to bad.
I think the 2nd round BTT game is more important than we realize for both the overall outlook of our team AND a tourney birth. We have no signature wins.
If we lose to RU, yep. First round of the BTT to a likely tournament team in Michigan? Maybe, but not 100%.
I think if he loses to Rutgers and then in the first round of the BTT, he gone. If he loses to RU and then wins 2+ games in the BTT, he's staying. Beat RU and lose in the first round, toss-up. Lose to RU and win one in the BTT, toss-up leaning toward dismissal.
I may very well be wrong, but I think Whitman's decision is still up in the air. If we lose the next two games, there will be a lot of pressure from fans and boosters to fire JG (with good reason, IMO). Win the next 2-3 and make the tourney, then win one there, and the opposite is true: lots of pressure from the team, recruits, coaching community and some fans/donors to extend (an "it's only fair" mentality). Like I said, I could be totally wrong - maybe Whitman already knows what he's going to do barring some extreme outcome one way or the other.
1) All of the teams listed have beaten Good teams
2) We could have easily quit and mailed in the rest of the season
3) Something has changed and lets quit nit picking because we're tired of JG
4) The team is playing up to and sometimes above it's real potential so JG is doing something right
5) JG rotations and adjustments and plays after timeouts seem to be much, much better and successful
6) The team as a whole is well prepared and no longer appears to be confused about assignments.
I believe primarily the result of JG and the coaching staff growing and maturing. Granted it sure did take a bit to much time. But be that as it may there's vast improvement and I believe a brighter future then some might be willing to concede! Go Illini
Martin is really making it hard to be excited about him as a hire. I still think he's one of the top candidates, but I'm also starting to think that Groce might save his own job with this surge.
I hope the decision is more influenced by who he thinks he can hire rather than the next few games. I do not care about the past record because JG should be judged on what he is capable of in the future not the past. I believe most new coaches are going to be in a learning curve in both recruiting and coaching at a different level, conference I.e. If JW believes he has progressed on that curve and can compete he should retain him. I think rehashing his past failures is non productive unless you assume JG is stupid and not capable of learning and improving. That said I can't judge his progress but there certainly has been some based on the recruiting class and the last six games.
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I also think a retention should require staff changes.
A while back (maybe couple months ago) someone posted about how the big time boosters were attending some function and made it clear they wanted Groce gone. I'm sure that JW won't be totally persuaded by boosters but I'm sure they're at least some part of the equation.
Anyway, do you guys think JW is gonna wait and base his decision on how this season plays out or do you think it's already way further along with a new hire in mind and Groce possibly already aware of it?
KEEP GROCE
It is all coming together how don't you see it ?
Passion-Energy-Leadership these guys care more than you know.
I hope the decision is more influenced by who he thinks he can hire rather than the next few games. I do not care about the past record because JG should be judged on what he is capable of in the future not the past. I believe most new coaches are going to be in a learning curve in both recruiting and coaching at a different level, conference I.e. If JW believes he has progressed on that curve and can compete he should retain him. I think rehashing his past failures is non productive unless you assume JG is stupid and not capable of learning and improving. That said I can't judge his progress but there certainly has been some based on the recruiting class and the last six games.
Lucas is super! All reports tonight on Frazier is he is very good and then if you got Mark Smith, good grief we would go from last year 14th in point guard play in the league to possibly 1st. I want him to stay no matter what happens the rest of this year I think the team looks good for next year and you have no seniors. Smith is an important pickup if we can get him, one more playmaker.
I know money is everything but gosh I don't want them deciding who the coach is
1st? You're joking, right? Lucas and Frazier are/were outside the top 100 and it remains to be seen where Smith falls as Rivals as him as 4 star, but others have him outside the top 100. Moreover, it's no guarantee that Smith comes here nor do we know how much either them will produce. These are freshman who don't know the system and Frazier probably isn't ready strength wise for the Big Ten. Frazier isn't going to average 30 points per game his first year and Smith isn't going to average 4 dunks and 7-8 assists per game either.
Here are some other point guards to be aware of who play for other Big Ten teams: McIntosh, Winston (will be a sophomore, but top 30 recruit for the Spartans), Tony Carr, JaQuan Lyle, Anthony Cowan, Nate Mason, Glynn Watson, etc.
Lucas is averaging 5.0ppg and 2.8apg on the season. This rises to 6.2 and 3.6 in conference play, but to say Lucas as a sophomore and a few guys who have never played a college game are suddenly the best in the Big Ten is quite the stretch.
Here are some other point guards to be aware of who play for other Big Ten teams: McIntosh, Winston (will be a sophomore, but top 30 recruit for the Spartans), Tony Carr, JaQuan Lyle, Anthony Cowan, Nate Mason, Glynn Watson, etc.
I think by next year Lucas is one of the better point guards in the league and the group will grow into one of the best groups in the league I don't think that is ridiculous.