3/14-3/16 Bracketology

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#151      
Bracket Matrix has finally leveled out and IMO is pretty close to what we'll see this afternoon. There are still a few teams ahead of us though that I think we are at least very comparable to if not better than.


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#153      
Latest field of 68 projection has us a 7 vs. 10 Oklahoma.


Not sure I want another early tourney matchup with a Porter Moser team.
I don't think Porter Moser was our problem. I think it was Sister Jean! And that whole State of Illinois David vs. Goliath storyline. Add in that Loyola won the championship in 1963 and Illinois hasn't won and it seemed to put all the pressure on Illinois and give all the emotional and energy to Loyola. I hope we never see that again!
 
#154      
You're right, I'll be shocked if Illinois ends up in Milwaukee. Seems like Milwaukee will be Michigan State plus Wisconsin or Iowa State, and I can't see the committee wanting an Illinois-Iowa State rematch in the second round. That would kind of lame.
There's a site in either Cleveland or Cincy. That's where MSU will end up. If Illinois is a 6, they'll be in Milwaukee and if a 7, they won't. I don't think that they're worried about lame matchups. They want it right and it's probably right.
 
#162      
Eh, I really don't like St. John's in the 2nd round. We struggle against elite defensive teams and St. John's is the #1 defensive team in the country per Kenpom. I'd honestly rather face Auburn.
Fair. I could be underrating St John's just because I haven't seen them as much.
 
#163      
Saturday games and when possible / necessary Sunday games are taken into account. The committee has even said they create various contingency brackets based on what happens Sunday. However, the B1G championship ends after their deadline to submit their final bracket so those results are almost never taken into account.

The confusion may be that they cast their ballots for teams during the conference tournaments. So, in that sense, by yesterday they probably were done with the first 9 seed lines or whatever. But after that, there's still a "scrubbing" process where they can adjust the bracket based on recent outcomes.

"Every game does matter, we do pay very close attention to that and it may or may not move somebody up or down on the seed line but we’ll certainly consider what happens this week.”

Yes every game matters. However it is hard to move up or down multiple seed lines this late in the season.

Going into today there are 5 games. Question is are teams like Wisky and scUM locked into their seed regardless of any other result. If so game doesn’t matter

However the UAB vs Memphis could generate two brackets. One where Memphis wins and UAB is out or Memphis loses UAB gets in

The biggest reason 10-12 seeds are where the bubble team go and auto qualifiers go into the lower seeds. The committee doesn’t punish a team for not playing additional games so a team behind them have to have a better resume which 1 or 2 wins doesn’t have a huge impact
 
#164      
Eh, I really don't like St. John's in the 2nd round. We struggle against elite defensive teams and St. John's is the #1 defensive team in the country per Kenpom. I'd honestly rather face Auburn.
St. John's, in my opinion, is not a good matchup. I agree with you. They hit the offensive glass HARD, and I feel like their athleticism is going to be tough to deal with. Would definitely prefer other 1-3 seeds in the eventual region for Illinois.
 
#165      
Porter Moser outcoached BU, wasn't even close. Loyola choked off our offense at top of the key and double team trapped, forced us into long dangerous passes.
 
#167      
Yes every game matters. However it is hard to move up or down multiple seed lines this late in the season.
Agreed. Hard but not impossible. I would argue it depends on the year. Going into the conference tournaments this year, seeds 4-8 were a jumbled mess. There was more opportunity than usual for teams to separate themselves.
Going into today there are 5 games. Question is are teams like Wisky and scUM locked into their seed regardless of any other result. If so game doesn’t matter
The B1G game doesn't matter because it's too late in the day. If it was played earlier in the day, it would matter to the extent that all single game outcomes matters - which to your point, usually isn't enough to produce movement up or down seed lines.
 
#168      
Any game we play could easily be a one and done. We worry too much about voodoo sh!t as a fanbase. Oklahoma isn't very good.
I'm talking odds here. Based on the latest bracketology, I'd prefer playing Utah State or UC San Diego in round 1 for example. I'd also prefer playing against Kentucky in Milwaukee over seeing St John's.
 
#171      
St Johns would turnover KJ so much he would start crying....hard pass on that match up.
 
#172      
There's a site in either Cleveland or Cincy. That's where MSU will end up. If Illinois is a 6, they'll be in Milwaukee and if a 7, they won't. I don't think that they're worried about lame matchups. They want it right and it's probably right.

Cleveland. I can't recall Cincy hosting early round games, maybe ever for as long as I've watched college basketball.
 
#175      
Has the committee ever said head to head results have played a role?
 
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