Ayo Dosunmu to the Chicago Bulls (2nd Round, 38th Pick)

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#376      

KnoxIllini2

KnoxIllini2
KnoxIllini2
lonelytylenol said:
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
Click to expand...
happy illinois basketball GIF by Fighting Illini Athletics
 
#377      

Nappy I_L_L

Nappy I_L_L
Northern Indiana
Nappy I_L_L
lonelytylenol said:
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
Click to expand...
Well said. Garza suffers this market more than Ayo did. Garza has won NPOY two years running, and he was drafted 52nd. Garza might be an incredible prospect, but his ceiling isn't near as high as young prospects with a special skill. Ayo can do everything, but he doesn't have that special skill that the NBA looks for. It might be my bias, but I believe Ayo will scrap his way past the doubters.
 
#378      

SescIllini

SescIllini
SescIllini
lonelytylenol said:
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
Click to expand...
Great report, I saw enough of the NBA to see that Ayo belongs. Many of these prospects play sloppy, Ayo is a well disciplined and coached player.
He has had to be the star and now he will be more of a facilitator.
 
#381      

jrmarcus

J
jrmarcus
lonelytylenol said:
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
Click to expand...
I know you put some research into this, something I can't bring myself to do, but there are issues I, respectfully, have with your methodology. You bring up Kobe, who was drafted in 1996. You mention a large majority of the players that were on All-NBA teams were top-15 picks, but since 1996, there have been 360 top-15 picks. I'm not going to go through those 360 to see which have made an All-NBA team, but I would imagine taking this approach would come to a different conclusion than your approach - that is, the NBA GMs are usually wrong in determining what players are franchise level talent. I guess a better way to put it is that All-NBA team players are usually top-15 picks, but top-15 picks are rarely All-NBA players.
 
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#382      

Fr8trn16

F
Fr8trn16
RockfordIllini said:
I may be dating myself a bit, but with the NBA draft I’m reminded of Hawk Harrelson discussing early vs. late round picks when talking about Mark Buehrle. Essentially said the early round guys could light up a radar gun but the later round guys learned to compete.

Similar principle at play here I think. No GM is going to get fired for drafting the long, bouncy athlete. Whether they can actually play basketball seems to be a secondary concern. But the league is full of guys who stick around because they know how to play/compete. I think Ayo is one of those.

Apologies for the long post, but as an aside I think our TBT team showed the difference. BP and Ray I think have the talent to play in the NBA, but they seemed more interested in looking good than competing. Meanwhile a 5’4 dude who makes his living as a long haul trucker is kicking their a**.
Click to expand...
Rayvonte played his butt off! BP3 not so much!
 
#383      

POWURR

POWURR
From Downtown
POWURR
lonelytylenol said:
For those confused by what they saw in the draft, here's my non-expert understanding of the situation ...

There is a large pool of talented, but generally undifferentiated players that teams can dip into to fill out their roster each year. The goal of the draft is to take risks in order to obtain what you cannot otherwise obtain from this pool. Basically, that translates to one of two things:

(1) A player with an all-NBA ceiling ...

NBA teams simply do not win championships without at least one all-nba player. Teams will therefore pass on sure bets to be decent, or even above average, if there's the opportunity to grab a high ceiling guy, even those they know have a high risk of flaming out.

You might think to yourself, "Ayo could be all-nba!" Well, maybe, but you probably shouldn't trust your heart over the opinions of NBA scouts and GMs, even though your heart tells you they're idiots. The evidence ...

53 distinct players have made a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-nba in the past 10 seasons. Here's a breakdown of where they went in the draft ...
  • 25/53 were top 5 picks ... 9x 1st, 4x 2nd, 7x 3rd, 2x 4th, 3x 5th
  • 40/53 were top 15 picks ... continuing the above list, 1x 6th, 2x 7th, 5x 9th, 2x 10th, 1x 11th, 1x 13th, 3x 15th
  • Of the 13 who went later than the 15th pick, 5 were international players.
  • Of the 8 domestic players who went later than the 15th pick, only 3 were taken after the 1st round (DeAndre Jordan C, Draymond Green F, Isaiah Thomas G).

These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft. Many of the exceptions are internationals, and only a trivial number of exceptions are from beyond the first round.

Something else I noticed when reviewing this sample - a healthy proportion were identified as elite talents while still in high school. Using RSCI rankings meant I had to shrink the sample from 53 to 42 - 10 guys attended high school outside of the states, and 1 (Kobe Bryant) pre-dated RSCI, though surely would have been top 3, if not 1. Actually, Tim Duncan failed on both counts - pre-dated RSCI and attended HS outside of the states. In any case ...
  • 18/42 were top 6 RSCI
  • 27/42 were top 21 RSCI
  • Of the other 15/42, 5 were ranked, but lower (29, 48, 58, 72, 95), while 10 were unranked.

I find it interesting that there were twice as many unranked guys, as guys ranked below 21. Of the 10 guys that were unranked, here's where they were drafted: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 27, 30, 60. Personally, I interpret that to mean that some guys just don't get sufficiently scouted before college, though I guess at least some could have developed while in college.

For context, Ayo's RSCI was 32.

If you're an NBA GM looking at the above numbers and your goal is to take a big swing, you might just reach for a guy who has always had the gifts, even if he hasn't yet performed to his full potential.

(2) A player who possesses a rare, but critical ingredient in today's game, even at the expense of being a well-rounded player ...

This one is more fluid as trends come and go, but presently, this might mean ...
  • 3-point specialists who are long enough to not be complete defensive liabilities,
  • long wings with elite athleticism who they hope to teach to be impact defenders,
  • quick-twitch bigs who can switch pick-and-rolls and rim run,
  • etc.

Ayo doesn't fit either profile. That doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NBA, but it does mean he's viewed as an easier to find commodity.
Click to expand...
Confused Figure It Out GIF by Isola dei Famosi

This logic is.. elite.
 
#385      

lonelytylenol

L
lonelytylenol
Sounds to me like we're on the same page. Compare these two quotes ...

jrmarcus said:
I guess a better way to put it is that All-NBA team players are usually top-15 picks, but top-15 picks are rarely All-NBA players.
Click to expand...

lonelytylenol said:
These numbers don't mean that every high pick works out. It just means that the vast majority of guys who really, really work out come from the upper parts of the draft.
Click to expand...
 
#386      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
I think it was mentioned earlier, if Ayo can get way better going left, and continue to work on his handles and quickness...he's going to have a nice 10 year career and make a wheelbarrow full of fun coupons. His work ethic is off the charts, I wouldn't bet against him.
 
#388      

KnoxIllini2

KnoxIllini2
KnoxIllini2
Baskins Tiger said:
Allen Griffin Lakers summer league
Click to expand...
That makes two of Underwood’s unheralded recruits getting NBA sniffs. Hopefully they can earn their ways onto rosters.

Talk about a recruiting pitch and a testament to our identification of potential players and developing them. Hopefully NIL will keep guys around longer, too. I’d say it already has with Kofi.
 
#390      

blackdog

blackdog
Champaign
blackdog
skyIdub said:
I think it was mentioned earlier, if Ayo can get way better going left, and continue to work on his handles and quickness...he's going to have a nice 10 year career and make a wheelbarrow full of fun coupons. His work ethic is off the charts, I wouldn't bet against him.
Click to expand...

The other thing I've seen mentioned is that he needs to cut down on his turnovers which was definitely something of a problem during his college career.
 
#391      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
KnoxIllini2 said:
That makes two of Underwood’s unheralded recruits getting NBA sniffs. Hopefully they can earn their ways onto rosters.

Talk about a recruiting pitch and a testament to our identification of potential players and developing them. Hopefully NIL will keep guys around longer, too. I’d say it already has with Kofi.
Click to expand...
While Giorgi and Griffin certainly speaks to BU and company identifying under the radar recruits, are they really going to use a guy who transferred as part of a recruiting pitch — especially when his counting stats went up fairly significantly when he left? Maybe they do, but that seems like it would be a bit weird.
 
#394      

illiniCA

illiniCA
DC Area
illiniCA
Well these FA guards the bulls are looking at will hurt his chance to play
 
#395      

Butters

B
Butters
illiniCA said:
Well these FA guards the bulls are looking at will hurt his chance to play
Click to expand...
There's an extremely small chance that the Bulls don't sign a free agent point guard this offseason. Part of why I don't love this landing spot for Ayo.
 
#396      

Illiniguy13

Illiniguy13
Illiniguy13
Butters said:
There's an extremely small chance that the Bulls don't sign a free agent point guard this offseason. Part of why I don't love this landing spot for Ayo.
Click to expand...
Arcidiacano and Satoransky are likely about to be gone, which leaves Colby White as the other 1/2 combo guard on the roster alongside Adam Mokoka, who doesn’t get minutes anyways. Colby White is coming off an injury and is really more of a SG and not the Bulls’ answer at PG. Yes the Bulls will pick up a FA starting PG but there’s minutes for Ayo off the bench, especially if he plays D well. The Bulls defense stinks and I think Ayo is already a better defender than half that Bulls roster which is why I think it’s about as good an opportunity a 2nd round pick could ask for. Some analyst thinks Ayo could have 12-16 minutes a game next year. It’s a great spot for him IMO
 
#398      

Tacomallini

T
Washington State
Tacomallini
My vegan wife informed me that Cade Cunningham is also vegan. “Go tell your basketball buddies,” she says. She clearly has no knowledge of Loyalty and how many sizzling bacon GIFs this could unleash.
 
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