Blackhawks

#527      
I keep going back and forth. Love the kid from MSU. He’s going to be really good and soon. Led the big 10 in +/- and was an offensive threat. One of the youngest kids in the league. However, the best depth in the organization is on the blue line I think.

Demidov’s skating worries me a bit. Does he have enough pure speed against NHL competition? Then I watch highlights of Berkly Catton!

Hope they get it right whoever they take.
 
#528      

Joel Goodson

dawgville
I keep going back and forth. Love the kid from MSU. He’s going to be really good and soon. Led the big 10 in +/- and was an offensive threat. One of the youngest kids in the league. However, the best depth in the organization is on the blue line I think.

Demidov’s skating worries me a bit. Does he have enough pure speed against NHL competition? Then I watch highlights of Berkly Catton!

Hope they get it right whoever they take.

Demidov has a massively higher ceiling than Levshunov. Lev is a top 4 D, for sure. What's not nearly sure is that he's a future #1 D. Demidov's ceiling is Kucherov. I know which way I'd go.
 
#529      
Demidov has a massively higher ceiling than Levshunov. Lev is a top 4 D, for sure. What's not nearly sure is that he's a future #1 D. Demidov's ceiling is Kucherov. I know which way I'd go.
Just to point out how hard it is to project 18 year old kids…..Kucherov went 58th overall. Sometimes it takes some luck along the way.
 
#530      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
Demidov has a massively higher ceiling than Levshunov. Lev is a top 4 D, for sure. What's not nearly sure is that he's a future #1 D. Demidov's ceiling is Kucherov. I know which way I'd go.
I’d go that way, too. Demidov has a higher ceiling but Lenshunov has a higher floor so I get it if they go D here.
 
#531      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Demidov is so strongly coded as the Moneyball, process-based thinking, willing to take pain in the short term for gain in the long term, seeing upside in being bad, pick that I'll genuinely be shocked if Davidson doesn't take him.

The plus of it is that Demidov is also the better organizational fit as a projected Bedard wingman in a system overstuffed with D prospects, but on the minus side the Russian/KHL stuff is pretty scary, and I think the desire to improve next year as simply a show of good faith to Bedard personally is real.

IMO those are the real factors, I think some of the ceiling/floor stuff is being overstated as a proxy for the actual analysis. That's coming from someone who knows a decent amount about the mentality of the kinds of people making these decisions, but next to nothing about scouting amateur hockey players, so take it with the appropriate grain of salt.
 
#532      
Demidov is so strongly coded as the Moneyball, process-based thinking, willing to take pain in the short term for gain in the long term, seeing upside in being bad, pick that I'll genuinely be shocked if Davidson doesn't take him.

The plus of it is that Demidov is also the better organizational fit as a projected Bedard wingman in a system overstuffed with D prospects, but on the minus side the Russian/KHL stuff is pretty scary, and I think the desire to improve next year as simply a show of good faith to Bedard personally is real.

IMO those are the real factors, I think some of the ceiling/floor stuff is being overstated as a proxy for the actual analysis. That's coming from someone who knows a decent amount about the mentality of the kinds of people making these decisions, but next to nothing about scouting amateur hockey players, so take it with the appropriate grain of salt.
Curious what you mean by the first paragraph? Is it that Demidov will play in Russia for another year so another year of tanking? I don’t think anyone they take at 2 in this draft is helping them next year.
 
#534      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
IMO those are the real factors, I think some of the ceiling/floor stuff is being overstated as a proxy for the actual analysis.
Many scouts don't like the way Demidov skates, saying that he's a knee injury waiting to happen when he gets drilled by NHL sized players. This is actual analysis from scouts who know what they're looking at. Obviously, if he doesn't get a knee injury, high ceiling. If he does, low ceiling. I guess we'll call that Demidov's Cat. We'll never know until he starts playing at the NHL level. Levshunov doesn't have the same type of concerns that Demidov does hence the higher floor but lower ceiling. Levshunov does a lot of things very well but it seems like he doesn't excel at any one of them.

Why do you think the ceiling/floor thing is overstated/why do you think actual analysis hasn't been used to come up with those terms?
 
#535      

mattcoldagelli

The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I guess we'll call that Demidov's Cat.
Work Quality GIF by MOODMAN
 
#536      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Curious what you mean by the first paragraph? Is it that Demidov will play in Russia for another year so another year of tanking?
Yes, and just the general delay and uncertainty associated with not having him under contract and in the system for a year (at least).

Many scouts don't like the way Demidov skates, saying that he's a knee injury waiting to happen when he gets drilled by NHL sized players. This is actual analysis from scouts who know what they're looking at. Obviously, if he doesn't get a knee injury, high ceiling. If he does, low ceiling. I guess we'll call that Demidov's Cat. We'll never know until he starts playing at the NHL level. Levshunov doesn't have the same type of concerns that Demidov does hence the higher floor but lower ceiling. Levshunov does a lot of things very well but it seems like he doesn't excel at any one of them.

Why do you think the ceiling/floor thing is overstated/why do you think actual analysis hasn't been used to come up with those terms?
I'm curious because I haven't read that specifically: why would skating style lead to injury risk that way? It sounds like talking about pitching mechanics in terms of risk of injury but I wouldn't ordinarily look at hockey in that context.

I have read that Demidov isn't the strongest skater, which runs counter to Davidson's philosophy which has led him to target the likes of Nazar and Oliver Moore.

I guess we'll see.

My bête noire Sam Hinkie got fired 8 years ago, so I should probably just let this go, but even in the totally unrelated context of college basketball recruiting I still see some of those deeply unsound ideas about "rebuilding" impacting people's thinking.
 
#537      

Joel Goodson

dawgville
next few days could be interesting. I think a deal could be had with Winnepeg: McGroarty for 18 OA, but could be expanded into a larger trade (Ehlers, Murphy, Reichel)
 
#538      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
I'm curious because I haven't read that specifically: why would skating style lead to injury risk that way? It sounds like talking about pitching mechanics in terms of risk of injury but I wouldn't ordinarily look at hockey in that context.

I have read that Demidov isn't the strongest skater, which runs counter to Davidson's philosophy which has led him to target the likes of Nazar and Oliver Moore.

I guess we'll see.
Here is a NYT article on his skating style: The distinctions for me would be that Michkov is a smarter player and more of a natural scorer, while Demidov competes harder and is a bit bigger. Some scouts would argue Demidov is a better skater, but I don’t see it and several scouts agree with my assessment. Demidov is a more powerful skater, but he’s a bit knock-kneed where he naturally goes into a 10-2 and his awkward stride is a minor concern for some teams in projecting his game to pro hockey. The scouts in his corner would argue it’s purely aesthetics but the actual end product is a better skater who gets by plenty of players. I see the argument based on how he skates around in the MHL, but I don’t see a lot of NHL players who skate like that in the NHL. Some good players who do would be types like Jeff Skinner and Kevin Fiala.

And this I found as well: Demidov's skating is characterized by irregularities; while he exhibits great power on his edges, his transitions suffer due to a wide stance, leading to questionable but explosive pivot work. Despite this, his rapid acceleration and agility enable him to navigate through traffic seamlessly, while his powerful stride generates significant momentum, making him a constant threat in transition. Let’s clear up a misconception; Demidov is not a bad skater. He’s got decent speed, a good handle on body control, power on the inside of his edges and with quick crossovers, etc. His posture and stance need work, but this is something that looks completely fixable at the NHL level. It doesn’t require a rebuild of his skating style, rather a retool that can utilize his edgework as a base. Instead of hunching over at the end of a shift and losing speed and energy, Demidov can rely on quicker small movement cuts on for rapid movement and longer, albeit slower strides while holding himself higher to preserve energy while covering distance. While the 10 and 2 skating that Demidov employs isn’t conventional, it allows him to see a good deal of the ice, and when in close provide breaking speed towards the play. Fixing the reliance on 10 and 2 also offers faster top level skating and easier quick pivoting in a 200ft game, rather than a longer turn. Again, his skating is unorthodox – but it isn’t bad. It’s not mechanically sound, but it can be polished to a high level without a large amount of concern. Because of how unpredictable his skating is now, scouts across the board acknowledge that it potentially even grants an advantage as his body is harder to read.

Obviously, not everyone agrees, of course, but this 10-2 style of skating is what people think could cause him knee injuries if he gets hit while skating. Let the record show that I would have no issues with either guy being picked at #2 but if I were picking, I'd pick Demidov. Demidov himself said that he will finish his contract in the KHL and will not resign which, to me, signals he's ready to start his NHL career after that.

We will find out on Friday...
 
#539      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
next few days could be interesting. I think a deal could be had with Winnepeg: McGroarty for 18 OA, but could be expanded into a larger trade (Ehlers, Murphy, Reichel)
I think that's too much, especially if Winnepeg is over the cap ceiling (I don't know if they are) but I think it's worth talking to them about.
 
#540      

Joel Goodson

dawgville
Here is a NYT article on his skating style: The distinctions for me would be that Michkov is a smarter player and more of a natural scorer, while Demidov competes harder and is a bit bigger. Some scouts would argue Demidov is a better skater, but I don’t see it and several scouts agree with my assessment. Demidov is a more powerful skater, but he’s a bit knock-kneed where he naturally goes into a 10-2 and his awkward stride is a minor concern for some teams in projecting his game to pro hockey. The scouts in his corner would argue it’s purely aesthetics but the actual end product is a better skater who gets by plenty of players. I see the argument based on how he skates around in the MHL, but I don’t see a lot of NHL players who skate like that in the NHL. Some good players who do would be types like Jeff Skinner and Kevin Fiala.

And this I found as well: Demidov's skating is characterized by irregularities; while he exhibits great power on his edges, his transitions suffer due to a wide stance, leading to questionable but explosive pivot work. Despite this, his rapid acceleration and agility enable him to navigate through traffic seamlessly, while his powerful stride generates significant momentum, making him a constant threat in transition. Let’s clear up a misconception; Demidov is not a bad skater. He’s got decent speed, a good handle on body control, power on the inside of his edges and with quick crossovers, etc. His posture and stance need work, but this is something that looks completely fixable at the NHL level. It doesn’t require a rebuild of his skating style, rather a retool that can utilize his edgework as a base. Instead of hunching over at the end of a shift and losing speed and energy, Demidov can rely on quicker small movement cuts on for rapid movement and longer, albeit slower strides while holding himself higher to preserve energy while covering distance. While the 10 and 2 skating that Demidov employs isn’t conventional, it allows him to see a good deal of the ice, and when in close provide breaking speed towards the play. Fixing the reliance on 10 and 2 also offers faster top level skating and easier quick pivoting in a 200ft game, rather than a longer turn. Again, his skating is unorthodox – but it isn’t bad. It’s not mechanically sound, but it can be polished to a high level without a large amount of concern. Because of how unpredictable his skating is now, scouts across the board acknowledge that it potentially even grants an advantage as his body is harder to read.

Obviously, not everyone agrees, of course, but this 10-2 style of skating is what people think could cause him knee injuries if he gets hit while skating. Let the record show that I would have no issues with either guy being picked at #2 but if I were picking, I'd pick Demidov. Demidov himself said that he will finish his contract in the KHL and will not resign which, to me, signals he's ready to start his NHL career after that.

We will find out on Friday...

agree with 95% of the analysis of Demidov's skating, just disagree that it's setting himself up for a knee injury
 
#541      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
agree with 95% of the analysis of Demidov's skating, just disagree that it's setting himself up for a knee injury
I don't know much about skating technique, well, I don't know anything about it. I'd have to defer to what "experts" think. However, that wouldn't stop me from taking him at #2.
 
#542      
The Chicago Blackhawks today announced that the team has acquired forwards Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty, and a 2027 second round pick from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a 2027 fourth round pick. Vancouver will retain 15% of Mikheyev’s salary for the remaining term of the contract.

Vancouver must have really wanted to get rid of Mikheyev.
 
#543      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
The Chicago Blackhawks today announced that the team has acquired forwards Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty, and a 2027 second round pick from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a 2027 fourth round pick. Vancouver will retain 15% of Mikheyev’s salary for the remaining term of the contract.

Vancouver must have really wanted to get rid of Mikheyev.
If someone will pay you to take useable forward depth off their hands, take yes for an answer
 
#544      

Joel Goodson

dawgville
The Chicago Blackhawks today announced that the team has acquired forwards Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty, and a 2027 second round pick from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a 2027 fourth round pick. Vancouver will retain 15% of Mikheyev’s salary for the remaining term of the contract.

Vancouver must have really wanted to get rid of Mikheyev.

they were in cap hell. great move be Davidson. Mikheyev has serious speed. thing is, he's still recovering from an ACL tear, hence the stats dropoff. if he follows the Dickinson track, he could be a major steal. plus, he can be flipped for a 2nd in 1.5 years too.

Lafferty is a solid 3rd-4th liner. another speedster. so nice to have legit NHL guys replacing the tweeners
 
#545      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
they were in cap hell. great move be Davidson. Mikheyev has serious speed. thing is, he's still recovering from an ACL tear, hence the stats dropoff. if he follows the Dickinson track, he could be a major steal. plus, he can be flipped for a 2nd in 1.5 years too.

Lafferty is a solid 3rd-4th liner. another speedster. so nice to have legit NHL guys replacing the tweeners
Those two are certainly better than the guys they had on those lines last year.
 
#547      
I will guess Levshunov and Brandsegg-Nygard in the first round. Love to see Catton fall and the Hawks able to move up and grab him around 10. Would be expensive but that kids hands!!!!
 
#548      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
I will guess Levshunov and Brandsegg-Nygard in the first round. Love to see Catton fall and the Hawks able to move up and grab him around 10. Would be expensive but that kids hands!!!!
I'm going to say Demidov #2. If they don't move the #18, I agree with your pick, barring someone dropping that was expected to drop.
 
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