Bowl/Playoff Projections

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#176      

Roundball Sage

R
Roundball Sage
Time to start thinking ahead to the Playoff Projections... for 2024. With thanks to the high heavens... major college ball finally gets a legitimate (12 team) Playoff system in 2024-25.

And this means that the Illini will have a real shot at getting into those playoffs real soon with the upswing in the rejuvenated Orange football program.

With the good showing this season and the chance to add pieces quickly to through the Portal... the stars are aligning for exciting times in the Prairie State.

Lots of programs now just got a whole lot more to play for. And fans everywhere have never had more reasons to get excited.

And the Big Ten Playoff pathway has just finally been freed from the Michigan-Ohio corridor.
 
#177      

redwingillini11

redwingillini11
White and Sixth
North Aurora
redwingillini11
Theoretically it should be easier to crack the playoff. But even in an all time great season, we would still need to be 10-2 probably with wins over at least two of Michigan (Harbaugh), OSU (Day), Penn State (Franklin), Wisconsin (Fickell), or USC (Riley). Every B1G is going to start feeling like a gauntlet moving forward.
 
#178      

wma500

wma500
wma500
Fun fact....in the last 52 CFP seasons a grand total of 21 teams have won national titles. This is across the bowl era, the BCS era, and now the playoff era. In that list of 21 are 6 teams whose wins were 30+ years ago (Pitt, BYU, ND (3), PSU (2), Colorado and GTech). That leaves 15 teams, having won 43 of the last 52 titles. The most recent "new" team added to that list is LSU, with their title in '11. Again, across all eras of how titles were determined.

Yes, with 12 we're gonna get more football. But if you think teams outside that group of 15 are going to suddenly have "a whole lot more to play for", I've got news for you. Yes, it'll be a full playoff, but in substance it's really in my view just bringing the NY 6 and other bowls formally under the tent. "Making the playoffs" is the new "made it to a NY bowl", only for 4 teams that playoff experience is going to be all of playing one additional game on a campus, in December.

Plus, we're asking college athletes to play deep into December, with the final 4 going deep into January (first championship game would be 1/20/25).

I have to ask...is this really better?
 
#179      

redwingillini11

redwingillini11
White and Sixth
North Aurora
redwingillini11
wma500 said:
Fun fact....in the last 52 CFP seasons a grand total of 21 teams have won national titles. This is across the bowl era, the BCS era, and now the playoff era. In that list of 21 are 6 teams whose wins were 30+ years ago (Pitt, BYU, ND (3), PSU (2), Colorado and GTech). That leaves 15 teams, having won 43 of the last 52 titles. The most recent "new" team added to that list is LSU, with their title in '11. Again, across all eras of how titles were determined.

Yes, with 12 we're gonna get more football. But if you think teams outside that group of 15 are going to suddenly have "a whole lot more to play for", I've got news for you. Yes, it'll be a full playoff, but in substance it's really in my view just bringing the NY 6 and other bowls formally under the tent. "Making the playoffs" is the new "made it to a NY bowl", only for 4 teams that playoff experience is going to be all of playing one additional game on a campus, in December.

Plus, we're asking college athletes to play deep into December, with the final 4 going deep into January (first championship game would be 1/20/25).

I have to ask...is this really better?
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I agree. I was pumped for it at first, but this fall I have been mourning the impending loss of the crucial major game in October or November where one team eliminates another from national title contention. A game like Michigan-Ohio State this past weekend really won't hit the same when its a slight momentary setback, especially if those teams will end up playing the following week in the championship. I think we are going to lose some of the magic in the sport as a whole.

But of course the playoff games themselves will be fun to watch, at least until the first-round teams get demolished in the quarterfinals...
 
#180      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
redwingillini11 said:
Theoretically it should be easier to crack the playoff. But even in an all time great season, we would still need to be 10-2 probably with wins over at least two of Michigan (Harbaugh), OSU (Day), Penn State (Franklin), Wisconsin (Fickell), or USC (Riley). Every B1G is going to start feeling like a gauntlet moving forward.
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I will be more curious what the conference setup will look like if it expands from 16 schools to about 20 in the future. I can envision 4 divisions of 5 teams, with a four team playoff of division winners to determine the B1G champion. This would allow the conference to keep Michigan and Ohio State in separate divisions, allowing them to meet twice a year in high leverage games. Talk about the tv revenue that could be generated.

However, in the current setup, if Illinois gets to 10 wins, I do not think it matters who they actually beat to get in the playoff. For reference, Penn State is in the top 10 this year, and they have no overly quality wins to their resume (they just beat up on mid to low tier teams, yet they would likely make the expanded playoff. If Illinois won 2 of 3 vs Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State this year, we would likely be in a similar ranking as Penn State.
 
#181      

Mr. Roberts

Mr. Roberts
Mr. Roberts
Illini2010-11 said:
I will be more curious what the conference setup will look like if it expands from 16 schools to about 20 in the future. I can envision 4 divisions of 5 teams, with a four team playoff of division winners to determine the B1G champion. This would allow the conference to keep Michigan and Ohio State in separate divisions, allowing them to meet twice a year in high leverage games. Talk about the tv revenue that could be generated.

However, in the current setup, if Illinois gets to 10 wins, I do not think it matters who they actually beat to get in the playoff. For reference, Penn State is in the top 10 this year, and they have no overly quality wins to their resume (they just beat up on mid to low tier teams, yet they would likely make the expanded playoff. If Illinois won 2 of 3 vs Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State this year, we would likely be in a similar ranking as Penn State.
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Oof - four team playoff for the conference, 12 team playoff for a Championship. Teams would have to play 18 games in a season to win a National Championship (12 + 2 + 4).
 
#182      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
What happens if PU beats scUM. They will be without their RB. I think there is a chance but not likely
 
#183      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
Mr. Roberts said:
Oof - four team playoff for the conference, 12 team playoff for a Championship. Teams would have to play 18 games in a season to win a National Championship (12 + 2 + 4).
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I can see a scenario where non-conference season gets cut down to 2 games, and then have a conference season of 9 games. This gets to eleven games. Those teams that do not win division meet a similar ranked non-division foe for their 12th game. Only the two teams in conference championship game play the final week. So we are back at 13 possible games that we have now for a school. The perk of the playoff formatting is that the winner of the B1G will almost certainly get a bye in the CFP. In this scenario, if you win the B1G, to win CFP you would play in 16 games, which is only one more game than the current format.

I do not believe the standard 12 week season, in it's current format will continue long term, especially if the B1G does a major expansion in the next few years. As long as we are only adding USC and UCLA, it will be easy to keep the two divisions format, but I think another expansion will happen.
 
#185      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
Yes but OSU had a horrible game plan once it was obvious scUM had to throw they needed to drop in coverage and have a spy on the qb. OSU tried to do what we did and did not have the corners
 
#187      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
scUM announced Corum is out for the year.
lets see how they compensate
 
#189      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
illini0440 said:
Well the backup ran for 200+ yards against OSU
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I get that
but sometimes not knowing the real deal, makes it harder.

most times, but not all times, the #2 rb has a tougher time getting yards than the #1 guy

Love ran for 85 yards on 11 carries on Sat, Brown ran for 61 on 19 carries
sometimes, not being game planned for, helps
 
#192      

Ryllini

Ryllini
Lombard
Ryllini
wma500 said:
Fun fact....in the last 52 CFP seasons a grand total of 21 teams have won national titles. This is across the bowl era, the BCS era, and now the playoff era. In that list of 21 are 6 teams whose wins were 30+ years ago (Pitt, BYU, ND (3), PSU (2), Colorado and GTech). That leaves 15 teams, having won 43 of the last 52 titles. The most recent "new" team added to that list is LSU, with their title in '11. Again, across all eras of how titles were determined.

Yes, with 12 we're gonna get more football. But if you think teams outside that group of 15 are going to suddenly have "a whole lot more to play for", I've got news for you. Yes, it'll be a full playoff, but in substance it's really in my view just bringing the NY 6 and other bowls formally under the tent. "Making the playoffs" is the new "made it to a NY bowl", only for 4 teams that playoff experience is going to be all of playing one additional game on a campus, in December.

Plus, we're asking college athletes to play deep into December, with the final 4 going deep into January (first championship game would be 1/20/25).

I have to ask...is this really better?
Click to expand...
Yes, it's better.
 
#193      

TheChief4Life

TheChief4Life
TheChief4Life
wma500 said:
I have to ask...is this really better?
Click to expand...
sam richardson GIF by Team Coco
 
#195      

Illiniam1984

I
Illiniam1984
It appears the game tonight or the games possibly this weekend will decide where Illinois goes. Say if USC wins, but Purdue beats Michigan and Kstate beats TCU, that would mean Purdue goes to the Rose and Ohio State would go to the CFP. In that scenario, I don’t think they would leave out Penn State from the NY6 with a 10-2 record versus Purdue at 9-4. That would open up the Citrus and ReliaQuest. One of those bowl’s would have to take ND correct but Illinois would be next or would one of them take a 9-3 Florida State instead?
 
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#196      

RML

R
RML
Mr. Roberts said:
Oof - four team playoff for the conference, 12 team playoff for a Championship. Teams would have to play 18 games in a season to win a National Championship (12 + 2 + 4).
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if I were king of a four-division B1G, I would make it a 10 game regular season with all teams playing two additional seeded games at the same time the conference playoffs are occurring (i.e., in first round, divisional winners face off, runners-up face off, etc., all the way down to and last place finishers facing off.) Still 16 games to win a natty, but better than 18, and the last two weeks of conference play are good matchups for everybody.
 
#197      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
Navy_illini said:
What happens if PU beats scUM. They will be without their RB. I think there is a chance but not likely
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I just can't imagine this happening. Expecting the game to be close early and Michigan blows them out in the 2nd half (like they did against nearly everyone except us this year...)
 
#198      

Ramrod2010

R
Ramrod2010
OnlyOrange said:
I just can't imagine this happening. Expecting the game to be close early and Michigan blows them out in the 2nd half (like they did against nearly everyone except us this year...)
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Beware the Spoilermakers

And not only that, Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers are 3-0 vs. teams ranked in the top 3 during his 6-year tenure at Purdue, having beaten No. 2 Ohio State in 2018, then No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State last season.
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#199      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
not much surprises me anymore. Purdue could be a spoiler tomorrow night. They spoiled our party 3 weeks ago

but look for scUM to get plenty of calls in their favor in the 4th qtr, if the score is close
 
#200      

sbillini

sbillini
st petersburg, fl
sbillini
WWWWRocU said:
Salvadore Dali museum in St. Petersburg?
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loyalty friends, if we end up in the Reliaquest and you're debating whether to make the trip down, feel free to reach out. Been in st pete for 8 years now. Happy to give insights (hint: facilities accepting copious amounts of small denomination $ is definitely a way to spend your time here, but not the only way).
 
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