Bowl / Playoff Projections
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Dan
Admin
Pretty Simple:
We'll face BAMA if SMU loses.
We'll face Ole Miss if SMU wins.
We'll face BAMA if SMU loses.
We'll face Ole Miss if SMU wins.
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I personally think a [any] team with 3 losses SHOULD NOT BE IN PLAYOFFS and that means Alabama too!
It's likelier that SMU wins. Therefore it's likelier we face Ole Miss.
So if we do end up getting Ole Miss.....that means something for Luke right?
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
I'm fairly sure the Citrus Bowl can choose either Ole Miss or South Carolina. They are not locked into taking the first SEC team out.
Doubt it unless the committee is willing to jump South Carolina over Ole Miss, Miami, and Bama just because Clemson would be 10-3 instead of their current 9-3, slightly raising South Carolina's win profile. Even if Texas beats Georgia as well slightly lowering Alabama and Ole Miss' win profile, just based on their rankings, it seems like a done deal Bama is in no matter what. We'll face South Carolina or Ole Miss, whoever the Citrus thinks will travel better.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
ILLINOIS' CITRUS BOWL "LOCK":
Another way of saying this.........
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP:
Clemson can defeat SMU in Charlotte this weekend, and even if the Committee decides to keep both 10-3 Clemson and 11-2 SMU in the field of 12, only Alabama will get pushed out. Indiana is safely in the playoff field since slotted one place above the Crimson Tide, and so IU is therefore no longer a threat to take our Citrus Bowl bid.
BIG12 / MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIPS:
Boise State and Arizona State can both lose their league championship games as well, but in their cases they'll clearly be "replaced" in the CFP field by their opponents --- UNLV and/or Iowa State. Neither the Big12 nor Mountain West will be a 2-bid conference.
Bottom-line, only the Crimson Tide are in danger of being pushed out of the tournament. Indiana is now a lock.
Based on how they ranked teams, I see no chance they put in a 2 loss SMU over Alabama. They'd put them either 1 above or below Miami and call it a day.
It's hilariously telling when Warde said they won't reevaluate teams not playing in championship games as though the results of those games won't affect a team's quality of wins or losses. Because it won't- they already made up their minds on who gets that final spot.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Given that there was some social media banter between Coach B and Kiffin, there is no way that the Citrus Bowl Committee would not select this matchup between Illini and Ole Miss. I simply cannot see them passing Ole Miss over for South Carolina.
I believe it is either Citrus Bowl vs Ole Miss or Alabama at this point. I give it about a 75% probability Ole Miss, 20% Bama, and 5% South Carolina. I think Bama is likely in regardless of outcome of ACC Champ Game (not saying that is right, but it seems direction committee is pointing to based on reading the tea leaves).
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I feel strongly that if Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game, SMU will still get in the field of 12 and bounce Alabama out into the Citrus Bowl vs the Illini. Especially if it is a close game. How could they possibly leave SMU out in this scenario?
I guess I am just hopeful that we can still play Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. I have always dreamed of an Illini vs Alabama matchup, or the Illini vs Notre Dame. These opportunities don't come around often. No disrespect to Ole Miss or South Carolina, but there is a mystique with Alabama.
Stealing from someone else on Twitter "Find someone that loves you as much as the college football committee loves Alabama." Truer words have never been spoken. I hope they do not bounce someone out since they cannot bounce their beloved Crimson Tide.
Will be a fun Saturday and Sunday coming up. Usually at this time of year Illini football has been long forgotten and we are laser focused on basketball. So nice to be in the mix!
I guess I am just hopeful that we can still play Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. I have always dreamed of an Illini vs Alabama matchup, or the Illini vs Notre Dame. These opportunities don't come around often. No disrespect to Ole Miss or South Carolina, but there is a mystique with Alabama.
Stealing from someone else on Twitter "Find someone that loves you as much as the college football committee loves Alabama." Truer words have never been spoken. I hope they do not bounce someone out since they cannot bounce their beloved Crimson Tide.
Will be a fun Saturday and Sunday coming up. Usually at this time of year Illini football has been long forgotten and we are laser focused on basketball. So nice to be in the mix!
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I want to preface this with, I do not disagree with you. The biggest problem for SMU is that they will have two losses (yes, one in a champ game), and they do not have any real marquis victories (none of their wins would be from teams in the final top 25 CFP ranking). They may have avoided any "bad losses", but the committee loves statement wins. There really is not one on the SMU resume -- their best win is @Lousiville (and even they have 4 losses). This is not necessarily SMU's fault, but none of the teams they beat had a really good season.
Contrast that with Alabama who have two wins against teams in the final CFP top 25 (Georgia and Mizzou). They certainly have more losses (all coming on the road to teams making a bowl game), and the stinker they put up @Oklahoma is certainly noteworthy. However, the two wins against teams in CFP top 25 does carry weight.
I believe that SMU should get in over Bama if they end up losing on Saturday, but I do not think it is an outright blasphemy if they get left out either.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Because it’s about money and the two conferences (big ten and SEC) are throwing their weight. Look at the rankings every week, it’s been set up in a way for those 2 conferences to get every bid when dust settled
Even before this week - they stacked all the SEC teams one after another so that if one of them got upset, the other 1-2 were ready to take the spot. You have to do something extraordinary to make it as a not power 2 team (beyond maybe ND who I think they want in every year for their brand). That’s the sports world we are now in.
It’s like how the Supreme Court is supposed to be not party affiliated yet the people selected are not independent and lean to a party.
For the record, I also don’t think Bama belongs in and I’d rather SMU make it if they lose.
Don’t know where to put this.
redwingillini11
White and Sixth
- Batavia
Does anyone know if the south carolina quaterback will play if we draw them?
I mean, their backup is just not very good so just thinking....
I mean, their backup is just not very good so just thinking....
Not quite sure about draft status and all that, but their offense is mostly/highly driven through their star RB (Rocket Sanders) and their dual threat QB ur referring to.
If even one of them opts out, that could be a pretty big serving point.
BB's tweet is great, didn't realize we stacked up so well compared to those teams.
But as ALionEye would say, this is the "did" stuff. I wonder how we'd stack up after adding the "should" metrics.
He will play, 100%. That will be a tough draw. Beamer will be fired up and have them ready to prove they should have been a playoff team
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I'll take any of the 3 Sec teams as an opponent, opportunity. Win and recruits notice!
Yep- Rocket likely will sit out to preserve draft status. Sellers will play.
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