Correct. It should be noted that with a win, we'd be 9-3. Extraordinarily difficult to see an 8-4 Iowa team who played in the Citrus last year jump us for that spot. In fact, even with a loss to Northwestern (oh god no), I'd still say there's likely over a 90% chance we get the Citrus bid over Iowa as bowls do make an effort to avoid having the same team twice in a row.
This will all come down to Indiana and PSU taking care of business. I think PSU is in the CFP even with a loss to Maryland, but it would be close. If Indiana loses to Purdue they're going to be out and I'm guessing they'd be going to the Citrus over us. Then it'd be up to the Reliaquest. If we beat Northwestern, I think they take us though that Iowa fanbase could be enticing. With an Indiana loss and a loss for us to Northwestern, that's the only way I see a non-Florida bowl.