Bracketology (Week of Feb. 15th)

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#26      
I see two teams that each lost an expected game, each won two top tier teams, and both lost a game they should have won. Who cares what the margin of victory is in this scenario. Truthfully, for most common opponent games, unless the margin of victory is something like a 30 to 1 disparity, the margin of victory is a worthless stat without looking into a plethora of other scenarios that lead to those margins.

Now, in the grand scheme of things, really we're talking about stats and figures to sort two teams that are basically comparable. I don't think you get it wrong either way.
I would be one who cares.

That said, crafting a program to capture all the nuances of rankings is flatly impossible.

And this doesn't even get to the "who do I want to play" question. Because I don't want to play the worst team but rather the most consistently bad team. So even with these rankings you have those crazy teams that are up and down all the time.
 
#27      
I think capping at 10 makes some sense. Maybe you could argue for one more level or something. But really, if the game is not particularly close at the end, it's not unusual for teams to coast or one team to get demoralized and the score to balloon. At a certain point, additional margin is meaningless.
Eh, in determining who is good in college basketball it matters a lot if someone is able to really blow teams out, especially non-cupcakes, though you're right that the final score doesn't always capture that perfectly.

Something that the NCAA is going to use on an official basis needs to serve a lot of masters though, with discouraging running up the score, encouraging challenging scheduling, and equity for conferences of different sizes all looming large besides just answering "who is the best team?".

KenPom is the gold standard for the question of who is the best team.

BUT, those NET rankings are important for NCAA Tournament bids and seeding, so they are still worth paying attention to.

And both of them are higher on Illinois than I am, frankly, so that's something I am definitely using to check my own eyes and gut.
 
#28      
Isn’t there a way to measure garbage time in the advanced metrics on the football side? Basically a way to weed out plays/scores/tempo that wouldn’t have an affect on the game?

Maybe that is what’s needed here? Find a way to either not count or discount stats/scores padded in garbage time. Not sure how garbage time would be defined...maybe once the probability of a win gets above 95%? 99%?

That way, if you really are sticking it to a good team, and are up by 23 with 6 minutes left, it will stop counting garbage time stats but will still register that you were beating a god team by 23 and won’t reduce the win down to the 10+ ceiling.

On the flip side, if you’re absolutely bulldozing a bad team, and are up by 30 in the first half, once the garbage time probability has been achieved, additional stats you achieve don’t weigh into the system. (Or maybe count less)

Anyway, just my $.02. Apologies if it already works like this or has been mentioned in the thread. I haven’t read every post.
 
#29      
Isn’t there a way to measure garbage time in the advanced metrics on the football side? Basically a way to weed out plays/scores/tempo that wouldn’t have an affect on the game?

Maybe that is what’s needed here? Find a way to either not count or discount stats/scores padded in garbage time. Not sure how garbage time would be defined...maybe once the probability of a win gets above 95%? 99%?

That way, if you really are sticking it to a good team, and are up by 23 with 6 minutes left, it will stop counting garbage time stats but will still register that you were beating a god team by 23 and won’t reduce the win down to the 10+ ceiling.

On the flip side, if you’re absolutely bulldozing a bad team, and are up by 30 in the first half, once the garbage time probability has been achieved, additional stats you achieve don’t weigh into the system. (Or maybe count less)

Anyway, just my $.02. Apologies if it already works like this or has been mentioned in the thread. I haven’t read every post.

The scientist in me who analyzes data for a living makes me really want to dig into this and see if I can quantitatively define "garbage time."

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#31      
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Isn’t there a way to measure garbage time in the advanced metrics on the football side? Basically a way to weed out plays/scores/tempo that wouldn’t have an affect on the game?

Maybe that is what’s needed here? Find a way to either not count or discount stats/scores padded in garbage time. Not sure how garbage time would be defined...maybe once the probability of a win gets above 95%? 99%?

That way, if you really are sticking it to a good team, and are up by 23 with 6 minutes left, it will stop counting garbage time stats but will still register that you were beating a god team by 23 and won’t reduce the win down to the 10+ ceiling.

On the flip side, if you’re absolutely bulldozing a bad team, and are up by 30 in the first half, once the garbage time probability has been achieved, additional stats you achieve don’t weigh into the system. (Or maybe count less)

Anyway, just my $.02. Apologies if it already works like this or has been mentioned in the thread. I haven’t read every post.

KenPom I think used to try to discard garbage time but no longer does. Torvik's rankings, which are self-described as a sort of KP offshoot, still does (probably others, too).
 
#32      
The scientist in me who analyzes data for a living makes me really want to dig into this and see if I can quantitatively define "garbage time."

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Does this really need a data analyst? It is 10pm every Weds.
 
#33      
I'm sort of amazed by the absolute consistency of our position in the Bracket Matrix ratings
There are 101 raters.
We are a 2 seed in 97 of the 101 !
Two 1 seeds
Two 3 seeds.
 
#34      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
I'm sort of amazed by the absolute consistency of our position in the Bracket Matrix ratings
There are 101 raters.
We are a 2 seed in 97 of the 101 !
Two 1 seeds
Two 3 seeds.
I think we're really benefitting from the consistency between our AP, NET, Kenpom, and Torvik rankings. It also can't hurt to be near the top of the B1G standings and have two All-American candidates on the team. Everyone knows who we are and they have a highly positive opinion about us. Need to relish it. It's already been a special season and the ending hasn't even been written yet.
 
#35      
I think we're really benefitting from the consistency between our AP, NET, Kenpom, and Torvik rankings. It also can't hurt to be near the top of the B1G standings and have two All-American candidates on the team. Everyone knows who we are and they have a highly positive opinion about us. Need to relish it. It's already been a special season and the ending hasn't even been written yet.
We still have the champagne yet to pop over breaking our tournament drought. Something I am very much still afraid of, me being me.

I'll always remember that day when Richardson, Paul and Bertrand all committed and broke Weber's recruiting drought. Seems like twenty million years ago now. Those guys were on the last Illinois team to play in the NCAA Tournament.
 
#36      
We still have the champagne yet to pop over breaking our tournament drought. Something I am very much still afraid of, me being me.

I'll always remember that day when Richardson, Paul and Bertrand all committed and broke Weber's recruiting drought. Seems like twenty million years ago now. Those guys were on the last Illinois team to play in the NCAA Tournament.
One bad OOB play in the Miami game and we may have been Sweet Sixteen bound.
 
#40      
The scientist in me who analyzes data for a living makes me really want to dig into this and see if I can quantitatively define "garbage time."

giphy.gif
When score differential > 0.5 * T + 10? Where T is minutes remaining in regulation.

Up 25 halfway through 1st half.

Up 20 at halftime.

Up 10 less than a minute.

Passes sanity check for me.
 
#44      
The WCC has decided not to make up all the conference games lost to COVID in an effort to not wear out the players by packing games into the end of the season. To that end, they've worked with Ken Pomeroy to devise an adjusted conference standings to seed the conference tournament based on the quality of opponent each team did play in their season:

 
#45      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
The WCC has decided not to make up all the conference games lost to COVID in an effort to not wear out the players by packing games into the end of the season. To that end, they've worked with Ken Pomeroy to devise an adjusted conference standings to seed the conference tournament based on the quality of opponent each team did play in their season:

WCC demonstrating leadership and innovation in the face of novel challenges. Take notes, B1G.
 
#48      
A 2 seed would be really nice, but I'd prefer to not get stuck with Baylor in the elite 8. We need a 1 to stay away from Gonzaga or Baylor.
 
#49      
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