Bracketology (Week of Feb. 15th)

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#54      
The WCC has decided not to make up all the conference games lost to COVID in an effort to not wear out the players by packing games into the end of the season. To that end, they've worked with Ken Pomeroy to devise an adjusted conference standings to seed the conference tournament based on the quality of opponent each team did play in their season:

Probably easier to do from a conference politics standpoint since the conference title is not remotely in doubt, no matter what metric you use, so all that is at stake is conference tournament seeding, rather than who gets to hang a banner.
 
#58      
WCC demonstrating leadership and innovation in the face of novel challenges. Take notes, B1G.
But it doesn't really mean anything in the WCC. They're a one team conference. And that one team easily wins the league. So it is a let's not tire out Gonzaga plan.

It won't work in competitive multiple bid conferences, unless the selection committee buys in too and all the teams agree to crown the champ that way.

In the big ten you can't reward Michigan for not losing a game they didn't play, but conversely you can't punish them for not winning a game they didn't play either.

You've just got to play the games.
 
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#59      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
In the big ten you can't reward Michigan for not losing a game they didn't play, but conversely you can't punish them for not winning a game they didn't play either.
Both of these scenarios are very much in play. By waiting this long without releasing any information on how they plan on awarding the conference title, the B1G is leaving open the possibility that they will literally be picking winners and losers at the last minute. We are barreling towards the conference having a mess on their hands.

Look at the disparity here:

As of today, here’s Michigan’s run-in:
  • 2/18: vs. Rutgers (8pm, FS1)
  • 2/21: at Ohio State (12pm, CBS)
  • 2/27: at Indiana (11am, FOX)
  • 3/4: vs. Iowa (TBD, ESPN family)
  • 3/7: at Michigan State (TBD, CBS)
I’m not sure how Nebraska plays this kind of a schedule:
  • 2/6: at Michigan State (L, 66-56)
  • 2/8: at Minnesota (L, 79-61)
  • 2/10: vs. Wisconsin (L, 61-48)
  • 2/12: vs. Illinois (L, 77-72, OT)
  • 2/14: at Penn State (W, 62-61)
  • 2/17: at Maryland
  • 2/20: vs. Purdue
and Michigan just plays five games with no less than two days off in between any two contests—including a whole week between Ohio State and Indiana—but hey, it feels tacky to complain at this point.

[LINK]

How are these the schedules of two teams in the same conference? They are clearly operating with different goals in mind. What is the conference going to do if Illinois ends up ahead of Michigan in the standings by team differential, wins the head-to-head with Michigan, but is behind Michigan by winning percentage? If you give the title to Illinois, you are arguably penalizing Michigan for not playing games. If you give the title to Michigan, you are arguably rewarding Michigan for not playing those same games. There is a chance none of these disaster scenarios occur, but the B1G is also doing nothing whatsoever to help avoid or mitigate them. That's where the lack of leadership is being felt.
 
#60      
Round 2 vs. Baylor is actually ideal imo. No reason to worry. BU would have a solid gameplan and the guys would be familiar/hungry to even the score.

But let's secure a 2 seed first lol. Tough schedule to finish and could easily fall back down to a 4 or 5.
 
#61      
Both of these scenarios are very much in play. By waiting this long without releasing any information on how they plan on awarding the conference title, the B1G is leaving open the possibility that they will literally be picking winners and losers at the last minute. We are barreling towards the conference having a mess on their hands.

Look at the disparity here:



[LINK]

How are these the schedules of two teams in the same conference? They are clearly operating with different goals in mind. What is the conference going to do if Illinois ends up ahead of Michigan in the standings by team differential, wins the head-to-head with Michigan, but is behind Michigan by winning percentage? If you give the title to Illinois, you are arguably penalizing Michigan for not playing games. If you give the title to Michigan, you are arguably rewarding Michigan for not playing those same games. There is a chance none of these disaster scenarios occur, but the B1G is also doing nothing whatsoever to help avoid or mitigate them. That's where the lack of leadership is being felt.
And Nebs actual schedule is even worse than that. Back to back games in MD last night and tonight.
 
#62      
Round 2 vs. Baylor is actually ideal imo. No reason to worry. BU would have a solid gameplan and the guys would be familiar/hungry to even the score.

But let's secure a 2 seed first lol. Tough schedule to finish and could easily fall back down to a 4 or 5.
You can always skip the conference tournament and use that time to make up games.
 
#64      
My impression is the B10 can’t force MI to play so all they can do is threaten them with a forfeiture.

The new B10 commish so far has totally failed to lead the conference in both revenue sports. Not sure how he was chosen as I don’t know anything about him, or the selection process, but it’s pretty obvious he was a bad choice.

Edit: Feels like B10 is on the path that B12 found themselves on ending up under the Texas heel.
 
#65      

According to this article, the NET ranking has changed it's formula this year to include margin of victory.

He also lays out what is most important to the committee. Good read for anyone confused about the selection process.
Thanks for sharing and good read, but not sure I totally believe it.

This part especially because I think since the start of NET every team that has been in Top 35 of *either* NET or RPI have made it.

It seems like they select the top 35 teams in each ranking, then fill in the last few spots.

Not nothing, but not very important​

  • NET and other computer rankings
 
#66      
Both of these scenarios are very much in play. By waiting this long without releasing any information on how they plan on awarding the conference title, the B1G is leaving open the possibility that they will literally be picking winners and losers at the last minute. We are barreling towards the conference having a mess on their hands.

Look at the disparity here:



[LINK]

How are these the schedules of two teams in the same conference? They are clearly operating with different goals in mind. What is the conference going to do if Illinois ends up ahead of Michigan in the standings by team differential, wins the head-to-head with Michigan, but is behind Michigan by winning percentage? If you give the title to Illinois, you are arguably penalizing Michigan for not playing games. If you give the title to Michigan, you are arguably rewarding Michigan for not playing those same games. There is a chance none of these disaster scenarios occur, but the B1G is also doing nothing whatsoever to help avoid or mitigate them. That's where the lack of leadership is being felt.

Share the title
 
#67      
Paducah, Ky
My impression is the B10 can’t force MI to play so all they can do is threaten them with a forfeiture.

The new B10 commish so far has totally failed to lead the conference in both revenue sports. Not sure how he was chosen as I don’t know anything about him, or the selection process, but it’s pretty obvious he was a bad choice.

Edit: Feels like B10 is on the path that B12 found themselves on ending up under the Texas heel.
Wonder how Delaney would have handled the pandemic situation.....I've got a pretty good idea he would have made different moves for the betterment of all concerned...
 
#68      
Too much worrying about things we can’t control. Pretty sure not a team worry as it is all about the next game. Believe we can beat any team with a good game and lose to a bunch with a lousy game. Kofi and Ayo are not the same players that lost to Baylor and Ace is certainly not. Baylor may have improved also but haven’t had close games. Strategy is to bring Jackson-Davis in to dunk over Kofi. That should take care of any opposing center the rest of the year.
 
#69      
One thing I'm keeping an eye on for curiosity is how close this year's B1G is to being the best conference of all time in terms of adjusted efficiency margin.

As of right now on KenPom:
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Which is 2nd all time, behind the 2004 ACC:
1613873818481.png


But it's effectively an opponent's adjustment or two away at this point, with the conference climbing steadily over the season. The big test will obviously be NCAA tournament performance, with a decent chance 4 teams will get top 2 seeds, and 9 or 10 teams could make the tournament (Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa are locks, Purdue, Wisconsin and Rutgers are near sure things, and Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, PSU and MSU could theoretically make a run to get in yet).
 
#72      
As I wake up this morning, I see we are claiming the 3-6 slots in the NET rankings. You'd expect that to translate to two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds. From memory only, 1989 seemed like one of the Big 10's best years historically. I do know that we had these seeds in the NCAA tourney that year:
#1 - Illinois
#2 - Indiana
#3 - Michigan (and frickin' Glen Rice)
#4 - Iowa

And Minnesota even made the Sweet 16.
 
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