Bracketology (Week of March 1st)

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#126      
I haven’t watched much non-BIG basketball this year, so I’ve started looking at other contenders for potential matchup problems. I think 3 types of players give us trouble:
1. Long, athletic wings (more than 1)
2. Bruising, athletic 4’s
3. Stretch 5’s

From what I can see our toughest team from a matchup perspective is still Baylor. They should still be able to disrupt our perimeter offense with their switching and we don’t really have anyone that can body up Vidal.

Alabama and Texas Tech look like strong defensive teams and have some length on the perimeter but don’t look to be overly long. FSU always seems to have a ton of rangy athletes but don’t look to be overly long this year.

Gonzaga is #1 in KenPom defense, but they don’t look overly long either. I guess Kispert is a problem for us but we just shut down Livers who seems to be a similar player. Timme is great but isn’t a stretch 5 and Kofi has greatly improved over the course of this year of not
biting on pump fakes and making guys score over him.

And every single one of those teams is going to be wondering how in the heck they are going to stop Kofi.

We can absolutely lose to any of those teams or really anybody who makes the tournament, especially Iowa, UM, or OSU. But I don’t see a ton of teams who are a bad matchup for us “on paper.”

It’s so nice to be relevant in March again and I hope we go on a run! Seem to be peaking at the right time!
After watching Texas last night they’d be a team I’d be nervous about. Especially if they can find consistency with shooting. Seems they have a plethora of lanky guys with quick feet.
 
#127      
Really think Grandy has helped the situation as well as the improvement in Ace’s defense. They seem to be able to handle bigger guys. Ace was on Livers at times and did ok and Grandy out played Wagner.
 
#128      
Really think Grandy has helped the situation as well as the improvement in Ace’s defense. They seem to be able to handle bigger guys. Ace was on Livers at times and did ok and Grandy out played Wagner.
Defensive grades for our top 3 in my opinion:

Trent - A+
A.Miller - A
Kofi - A+

Kofi is a mega rim protector.

But I tend to agree that tall, lanky forwards who can hit the three (i.e. Maryland-like) could give us fits.
 
#129      
Defensive grades for our top 3 in my opinion:

Trent - A+
A.Miller - A
Kofi - A+

Kofi is a mega rim protector.

But I tend to agree that tall, lanky forwards who can hit the three (i.e. Maryland-like) could give us fits.

Maryland also couldn't miss when we played them. Probably not going to happen again.
 
#130      
Defensive grades for our top 3 in my opinion:

Trent - A+
A.Miller - A
Kofi - A+

Kofi is a mega rim protector.

But I tend to agree that tall, lanky forwards who can hit the three (i.e. Maryland-like) could give us fits.

I think Miller's adjustment to the college game may have been a blessing in disguise. He's been able to get minutes because he still brings shooting, decision-making, and tough defense to the table. Thought he'd be able to drive more, but if I had a nickle for every talented freshman who struggled with BIGTEN defenses, I'd have another beach house.
 
#135      
The team to watch out for is Iowa. If we lose to Ohio State and they beat Wisconsin, then win the BTT(which would include a win over us), they'd be a #1 seed.

If we beat Ohio State, it's a lock.
And if a frog had wings. Ok maybe if they win the BTT. That is a big maybe/if. They have only 1 real quality win. The win at OSU. Beating WI in Madison. Meh. Everyone is doing that this year. Our resume is better even if we lose tomorrow and have a bad BTT. Not that we will in either case.
 
#138      
That would be my choice. Sign me up. The question was asked if we are a lock as of today. If we beat Ohio State, yes. If we don't, then it comes down to the conference tournaments.
Your scenario is never happening so we won't know if the BTT has any effect on our seeding. Certainly nothing WV can do to jump over us. Their resume is terrible along with the Big 12. So "tournaments" would not be accurate.
 
#139      
After watching Texas last night they’d be a team I’d be nervous about. Especially if they can find consistency with shooting. Seems they have a plethora of lanky guys with quick feet.
I thought there were a lot of fouls not called. Reminded me of past years in the big ten
 
#140      
Your scenario is never happening so we won't know if the BTT has any effect on our seeding. Certainly nothing WV can do to jump over us. Their resume is terrible along with the Big 12. So "tournaments" would not be accurate.
I think Alabama is still very much in play, as is Iowa and OSU. The metrics love Iowa(no clue why) and OSU already got us once, so they can't be counted out. Again, all of this predicated on a back to back meltdown by our guys. If we were to lose to OSU, then Indiana/Rutgers....it would put us at 19-8. If Alabama, Iowa or OSU wins out ...I think we'd be in trouble for a #1 seed.

If we win tomorrow....it's moot.
 
#142      
I think Alabama is still very much in play, as is Iowa and OSU. The metrics love Iowa(no clue why) and OSU already got us once, so they can't be counted out. Again, all of this predicated on a back to back meltdown by our guys. If we were to lose to OSU, then Indiana/Rutgers....it would put us at 19-8. If Alabama, Iowa or OSU wins out ...I think we'd be in trouble for a #1 seed.

If we win tomorrow....it's moot.
My hunch on the metrics love for Iowa, could offense have a higher weight than defense does?
 
#143      
My hunch on the metrics love for Iowa, could offense have a higher weight than defense does?
That could be the case. It that is the case, not a big fan as it penalizes various styles of play. We beat Michigan, not because we lit up the scoreboard, it's because we locked them down. Virginia has done that for years now. Definitely interested is what drives those numbers.
 
#144      
I think Alabama is still very much in play, as is Iowa and OSU. The metrics love Iowa(no clue why) and OSU already got us once, so they can't be counted out. Again, all of this predicated on a back to back meltdown by our guys. If we were to lose to OSU, then Indiana/Rutgers....it would put us at 19-8. If Alabama, Iowa or OSU wins out ...I think we'd be in trouble for a #1 seed.

If we win tomorrow....it's moot.
Alabama. Interesting. They haven't beaten anyone. Their non-conference is terrible and the SEC is, well not good. OSU is out. They will finish 5th. No way they make it to a 1 seed. Iowa still has little more than a prayer as discussed before.
 
#145      
That could be the case. It that is the case, not a big fan as it penalizes various styles of play. We beat Michigan, not because we lit up the scoreboard, it's because we locked them down. Virginia has done that for years now. Definitely interested is what drives those numbers.
Much like baseball, chicks dig the long ball. But a basketball connoisseur appreciates a good defense and the value that represents to a team.
 
#147      
It does not. They are weighted equally.
Yes. Interestingly the final number AdjEM is a simple equation. AdjEM = AdjO-AdjD. Of course the O and D numbers are a complicated calculation based on the opponents.
 
#148      
Your scenario is never happening so we won't know if the BTT has any effect on our seeding. Certainly nothing WV can do to jump over us. Their resume is terrible along with the Big 12. So "tournaments" would not be accurate.
The Big 12 isn’t terrible. They’re going to have 7 teams make the tournament.
 
#149      
Alabama. Interesting. They haven't beaten anyone. Their non-conference is terrible and the SEC is, well not good. OSU is out. They will finish 5th. No way they make it to a 1 seed. Iowa still has little more than a prayer as discussed before.

I mean, you're wrong, but by all means, stand on your soap box. Jerry Palm literally said OSU will move up to the 1 line if they beat us today.

And this is from Gary Parrish:

But the fourth No. 1 seed remains very much up for grabs. Right now, I think, it belongs to Illinois. But Alabama, Iowa, West Virginia and Ohio State are serious contenders. If any of them were to win-out, they'd have a legitimate claim to a No. 1 seed.
 
#150      
It's pretty clear to me that 0-2 by us and a long conference tourney run by any team currently on the two line makes a drop to 2 by us possible, perhaps even likely.
 
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