Bracketology (Week of March 8th)

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#26      

Deleted member 747840

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If the B1G final is Iowa/Mich, even if Iowa loses that, I think its a tossup on who gets the one seed between us and Iowa. Seems like theres still work to be done.
 
#27      

Bogey99

Bogey99
Bogey99
The BTT Final on Sunday will have zero impact on seeding since the game ends right before the Selection Show. The only time that game is even considered by the Selection Committee is if a team like Northwestern is playing and could steal a bid with a win, then they have to have two brackets ready to go. Otherwise, they basically ignore that title game when it is played between two teams clearly in the field. So, Iowa could help themselves by beating us on Saturday, but would not get credit for a win over UM or MSU on Sunday, so I don't think that's enough to overtake the Illini for the #1 seed.
 
#28      

I11ini82

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I11ini82
Bleedorangeandblue44 said:
I'm with everyone saying we should have the No. 1 seed locked. But after a lifetime of watching infuriating things happen back to the Illini playing the '84 regional final on Kentucky's home court to as recently as yesterday's conclusion of the Big Ten race, I personally won't breathe easy until seeing the 1 pop up next to the Illini's name Sunday if indeed Iowa beats Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan to win the BTT. (and I think the odds of that are very small as well as Illinois is playing and however Wieskamp's ankle is doing)

Which makes me wonder, would it hurt Iowa's chances if Illinois loses Friday and they don't get a chance for a head-to-head win, or a chance to beat the No. 3 team in the country added to their resume? We would still have the 1-0 advantage head-to-head vs. them. Would be odd if a loss helped us, though I certainly don't want to see it happen.

Or if Iowa did happen to beat us on its way to winning the BTT, but beats Michigan State in the title game instead of Michigan, who also lost early in this scenario like we did, could Iowa replace Michigan as a 1 seed instead of Illinois? I guess Iowa's recent blowout head-to-head loss to Michigan would make it impossible, even if Michigan would be 1-3 in its last 4 games.

It sounds like the bracketolgy experts here and nationally say the conference tournaments don't matter and I'll take their words, but if either of those scenarios happen I'd be curious if anything changes on the 1 line.
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They don't usually play a large role in seeding but in a Covid-shortened year, they very well could use them as they likely want as many data points as possible in such a weird year.

Injuries to Wieskamp and Brooks throw another wrench into everything. We need to know if those guys are going to miss any time (and if so, how much?).
 
#29      

I11ini82

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I11ini82
Bogey99 said:
The BTT Final on Sunday will have zero impact on seeding since the game ends right before the Selection Show. The only time that game is even considered by the Selection Committee is if a team like Northwestern is playing and could steal a bid with a win, then they have to have two brackets ready to go. Otherwise, they basically ignore that title game when it is played between two teams clearly in the field. So, Iowa could help themselves by beating us on Saturday, but would not get credit for a win over UM or MSU on Sunday, so I don't think that's enough to overtake the Illini for the #1 seed.
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It would be incredibly easy for them to have 2 brackets: 1 with Illinois a 1-seed and Iowa a 2-seed and another with the reverse. Iowa, as it stands now, would be the #2 seed in the Baylor region. If they were to move to the 4th 1-seed and we slipped to 5th, we would become the #2 seed in the Baylor region with zero impact on the rest of the field.

You cannot guarantee anything in this Covid year.
 
#30      

Pfillini43

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Lunardi has North Carolina as the 9 seed in our bracket with a possible round 2 match up. It would be nice to have some in tournament revenge but many others I would rather play for a sweet sixteen spot.
 
#31      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
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Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
Pfillini43 said:
Lunardi has North Carolina as the 9 seed in our bracket with a possible round 2 match up. It would be nice to have some in tournament revenge but many others I would rather play for a sweet sixteen spot.
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He also has OK State in our bracket. He seems more interested in storylines than actual, you know, bracketology.
 
#32      

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Austin said:
If the B1G final is Iowa/Mich, even if Iowa loses that, I think its a tossup on who gets the one seed between us and Iowa. Seems like theres still work to be done.
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It's not. I wish people would stop with thinking we are losing the 1 seed and that people would stop thinking these conference tournaments make a difference, they don't. Especially the big conferences. The committee doesn't put much stock in them unless you are a bubble team. I know everyone thinks the worst but we locked up the 1 seed with our win at OSU. Iowa might, a very slim might, get a number 1 seed but it's not going to be to replace us. I also don't know what case Iowa has. They lost to us, got blown out by Michigan, split with OSU. Like I said if they wanted that 1 seed they should have taken care of business when they could and they didn't. No one cares about what you do in 3 days vs. what you did in 3 months.
 
#33      

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Ransom Stoddard said:
He also has OK State in our bracket. He seems more interested in storylines than actual, you know, bracketology.
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I would love to see Cade vs Ayo. Wouldn't you? Game where Ayo could really elevate himself to a lottery pick.

I know we all want the easiest path to the final four but its not going to shake out that way. We have to beat the best to be the best.
 
#35      

I11ini82

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I11ini82
bootsy said:
It's not. I wish people would stop with thinking we are losing the 1 seed and that people would stop thinking these conference tournaments make a difference, they don't. Especially the big conferences. The committee doesn't put much stock in them unless you are a bubble team. I know everyone thinks the worst but we locked up the 1 seed with our win at OSU. Iowa might, a very slim might, get a number 1 seed but it's not going to be to replace us. I also don't know what case Iowa has. They lost to us, got blown out by Michigan, split with OSU. Like I said if they wanted that 1 seed they should have taken care of business when they could and they didn't. No one cares about what you do in 3 days vs. what you did in 3 months.
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Stop pretending you are smarter than people that do this for a living. If "No one cares about what you do in 3 days" why the hell would anyone care what we did in 8 days last week? If Iowa rolls Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan, there's absolutely a chance they end up on the 1 line. Their team sheet would show 10 Q1 wins with a Q1/Q2 record of 15-7. Illinois would have an identical 10 Q1 wins and Q1/Q2 record of 15-7. They would literally have the exact same case as us.

Brian Bennett @The Athletic: "OK, if Illinois were to lose in its first game of the Big Ten tournament, that would crack the door open for the Buckeyes or Alabama or possibly Iowa to make a push. But it’s about as close to certain as it can be."

Jerry Palm @CBSSports: "The fourth spot is the Illini's to lose. That could happen in the Big Ten Tournament, where two other competitors for that spot will also play. Ohio State or Iowa, as Big Ten Tournament champions, would have a strong claim for that fourth No. 1 seed. Alabama is still in play as well, but would not only need to win the SEC, but have Michigan or someone further down the bracket win the Big Ten title. You also can't rule out a strong Big 12 team if it can dislodge Baylor and win the conference tournament."
 
#37      

Deleted member 11228

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I11ini82 said:
Stop pretending you are smarter than people that do this for a living. If "No one cares about what you do in 3 days" why the hell would anyone care what we did in 8 days last week? If Iowa rolls Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan, there's absolutely a chance they end up on the 1 line. Their team sheet would show 10 Q1 wins with a Q1/Q2 record of 15-7. Illinois would have an identical 10 Q1 wins and Q1/Q2 record of 15-7. They would literally have the exact same case as us.
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As long as you stop dumbing us all down by thinking a team is going to jump a team that has won 11 of it's last 12, two of those on the road againt top 5 teams. We jumped to a number 3 ranking, you aren't going to lose that based off of what happens this weekend. We are a 1 seed there is no debate. I don't care what Iowa's sheet says they lost the biggest games they played this year. It's not going to magically be made up in 3 days to jump over us.
 
#39      

I11ini82

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I11ini82
bootsy said:
As long as you stop dumbing us all down by thinking a team is going to jump a team that has won 11 of it's last 12, two of those on the road againt top 5 teams. We are a 1 seed there is no debate. I don't care what Iowa's sheet says they lost the biggest games they played this year. It's not going to magically be made up in 3 days to jump over us.
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Iowa drubbed Ohio State in Columbus 2 weeks ago. If they roll us and Michigan, they will have won 10 of 11 games with 1 road win and 2 neutral court wins over top 5 teams in the last 3 weeks. Not to mention a 30 point win in East Lansing, where we lost and 2 wins over Wisconsin in that same period. Our resumes will be basically identical.

I literally quoted people A LOT smarter than you who do this as part of their career.
 
#42      

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I11ini82 said:
Iowa drubbed Ohio State in Columbus 2 weeks ago. If they roll us and Michigan, they will have won 10 of 11 games with 1 road win and 2 neutral court wins over top 5 teams in the last 3 weeks.

I literally quoted people A LOT smarter than you who do this as part of their career.
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They also lost to OSU, got blown out by Michigan, and lost to us. Also have two losses to IU, a loss to Minnesota . We are a 1 seed. Iowa will not be and if the slim chance they are it will be at Michigan's expense. I don't know if you have some money riding on Iowa but I wouldn't make that bet.

Neither one of those people are smarter than me especially Jerry Palm. And neither one are on the committee.
 
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#43      

I11ini82

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I11ini82
bootsy said:
They also lost to OSU, got blown out by Michigan, and lost to us. Also have two losses to IU, a loss to Minnesota . We are a 1 seed. Iowa will not be and if the slim chance they are it will be at Michigan's expense. I don't know if you have some money riding on Iowa but I wouldn't make that bet.
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They lost games. I'm not sure what your point is. So did we. Iowa is ahead of us on KenPom and Torvik. Some computers think they're the better team and some analysts think they have a chance to jump Illinois for the 1 seed if things fall a certain way.

The fact that you think Michigan is behind us is just comical and shows how little you actually understand this stuff. Michigan is currently the 3rd #1 seed in EVERY reputable bracket.
 
#44      

fuggles

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fuggles
I11ini82 said:
I literally quoted people A LOT smarter than you who do this as part of their career.
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You think people who talk in the media actually know what they are talking about? And are smart? lol. Who fed you this load of crap. A job on CBS sports or ESPN makes people smart. Wow.
 
#45      

Deleted member 11228

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I11ini82 said:
They lost games. I'm not sure what your point is. So did we. Iowa is ahead of us on KenPom and Torvik. Some computers think they're the better team and some analysts think they have a chance to jump Illinois for the 1 seed if things fall a certain way.

The fact that you think Michigan is behind us is just comical and shows how little you actually understand this stuff. Michigan is currently the 3rd #1 seed in EVERY reputable bracket.
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My point is they lost to teams that aren't going to make the tournament. One of this losses was by double digits to IU at home. You must be an Iowa fan or something. You are pushing way too hard.
 
#47      

iLL 89ers

iLL 89ers
Dallas,TX , Born and raised in Alton,Illinois
iLL 89ers
Really think Illinois can be the overall #3 - 1 seed
 
#49      

New Creation

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New Creation
Hopefully we will end the season like Duke did in 1982.. we are having a similar turn around like Duke from 1978-82... This could be our NC year... and maybe Underwood can turn us into a blueblood over the next 15-20 years
 
#50      

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New Creation said:
Hopefully we will end the season like Duke did in 1982.. we are having a similar turn around like Duke from 1978-82... This could be our NC year... and maybe Underwood can turn us into a blueblood over the next 15-20 years
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You mean 1992 Duke? 1982 Duke finished 10-17
 
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