If everything plays out like it should, we will get either Okie State or Bama in our regional because Baylor and Gonzaga will have Ohio State and Iowa as their 2's. We have been linked with Bama by Lunadi, Palm and Katz for a while now. Who knows if the committee will follow suit. It was easier to avoid Okie St when it was a 3 seed but it is now a 50/50 chance if the committee does move OKie St to the 2 line. This is much more fun knowing we are a 1 seed than hoping our name gets called as an 11 seed or just hoping to get an NIT bid.
Bracketology (Week of March 8th)
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If everything plays out like it should, we will get either Okie State or Bama in our regional because Baylor and Gonzaga will have Ohio State and Iowa as their 2's. We have been linked with Bama by Lunadi, Palm and Katz for a while now. Who knows if the committee will follow suit. It was easier to avoid Okie St when it was a 3 seed but it is now a 50/50 chance if the committee does move OKie St to the 2 line. This is much more fun knowing we are a 1 seed than hoping our name gets called as an 11 seed or just hoping to get an NIT bid.
Deleted member 747903
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Author with an agenda or doesn't watch basketball
I watched the USC/Colo game and thought, how can ESPN have this team as a contender?
Pulling from memory--in the first round in '97 (or so? Kruger's first year I think), we beat USC in the first round as a 6-seed in the second game of the pod. Right before that, UT-Chattanooga upset the three seed and was apparently upset when they came off and heard us celebrating. The post-game mantra from the UI locker room was that it was just typical pre-game antics to get fired up, but UTC perceived it as a slight, that we were jacked up about getting them instead of the 3 seed. Made for bulletin board material for them, and, well...
altenberger22
- South Carolina
And the good news in this story? I don't really care about the bubble any more. What a nice feeling!
The committee is going to follow the S-curve as closely as they can. That's why everyone has us with Alabama. I don't see Oklahoma State jumping Alabama at this point, so the only way we'll get Oklahoma State is if we pass Michigan.
Thats my thinking.
sacraig
- The desert
We drubbed a projected 1 seed in their house and were up by 26 before putting in the bench. We beat two projected 2 seeds, one in their house. We also beat a 4 seed.
Several of those were earlier when we weren't playing as well. What's your point? I'm confident we can beat anyone. I'm also confident we can lose to just about anyone.
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UNC a projected 9 seed and in our bracket. Meaning we could play them in the second round.
sacraig
- The desert
I mean, we lost to MSU during an otherwise strong stretch. We are capable of laying an egg. But hopefully we've exorcised those demons.
Uh, I was replying to someone who said Gonzaga would get upset early in the tournament so Illinois doesn't need to worry about facing them. It had nothing to do with who Illinois has beaten.
"the odds of us having to play Gonzaga are really not that great . I think they get upset before the final four . they just haven’t been tested week in and week out . they aren’t the 95-96 Bulls ."
So that is my point.
What is your point?
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sacraig
- The desert
Please tell me what straw man I was constructing. I just don't agree that Gonzaga's résumé makes them historically good. They're really good, sure, but historically?
Their wins are similar to ours but they had much easier schedule so fewer chances to drop a stinker on an off night since the WAC is so weak. If they cruise through the tournament then maybe they've got a case. Based on what we knew now, I don't think they've made that case unless you also say we or Michigan or Baylor have cases, and I don't think we or Michigan or Baylor have cases at this point.
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Yep. I still kinda hold this grudge against Kruger. We almost never catch a tourney break, but we had a huge one that year. UT Chattanooga pulls an upset. If we go and beat them as a #14 seed we would have gotten 10 seed Providence who had upset 2 seed Duke. Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket, #1 Kansas had been upset.
Their adjusted efficiency is the best in the 20 years of KenPom. That makes them historically good.
I wasn't comparing Gonzaga to Illinois. YOU did that. That's the strawman. I was simply replying to a guy who said Gonzaga would get upset early. The conversation had nothing to do with Illinois.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
I both would relish the opportunity to exercise old demons but also don't want to face them in the tourney.
to i11lini82 : my point is this -> I , and probably everyone for that matter , wants us to have the easiest path to the FF & NC. But I refuse to get into worry knots about playing someone tough, maybe even a round before we should.
We will be a 1 seed. We will most likely be favored in every game we play until the FF or NC , should we get that far. I would prefer to never play Gonzaga nor Baylor again, but at some point you will have a couple real tough games in the tourney. Hopefully, the team is up to the task. I dont think the players nor the coaching staff is intimidated by anyone.
When our team is on, they are the best in the country. We will likely go far and if we lose, its because we beat ourselves. As others have said, we can beat anyone and we can lose to just about anyone. Our losses to MSU, Md and Rutgers prove that and our close calls to Nebraska and NU do as well .
Re Gonzaga - its rare a team goes undefeated the whole way. They are due for a loss. just my opinion
We will be a 1 seed. We will most likely be favored in every game we play until the FF or NC , should we get that far. I would prefer to never play Gonzaga nor Baylor again, but at some point you will have a couple real tough games in the tourney. Hopefully, the team is up to the task. I dont think the players nor the coaching staff is intimidated by anyone.
When our team is on, they are the best in the country. We will likely go far and if we lose, its because we beat ourselves. As others have said, we can beat anyone and we can lose to just about anyone. Our losses to MSU, Md and Rutgers prove that and our close calls to Nebraska and NU do as well .
Re Gonzaga - its rare a team goes undefeated the whole way. They are due for a loss. just my opinion
I 100% agree with all of this.
My original point was aimed at someone who said it's irrelevant who we play. And I strongly disagree with that.
I would have rather had Villanova pull off the upset over UNC in the Sweet 16 in 2005. Or Wisconsin or MSU to have beaten UNC in the Elite 8 or Final Four. I think we would likely have been National Champions had we not had to play UNC in the title game. And there's not one person who would put an asterisk next to that title that said *but they didn't beat the best!*
Of course I hope and expect the players to think they can beat anyone and not give a crap who they play. But I'm a fan on a message board that wants the Illini to win the national championship.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
I'm pretty sure he was just aligning himself with the teams perspective. Nothing wrong with that.
From a particular fan's perspective, maybe it matters who we play.
I'm with that poster, and the team....doesn't matter who we play...however it is certainly relevant for discussions.
sacraig
- The desert
Comparing KenPom between seasons isn't straightforward since it is only calculated based on the field that year. Gonzaga has been dominant, yes, but they also haven't had a very grueling schedule, so I think there's plenty of debate to be had there. Would they be as efficient if they were worn down game after game against tougher competition? No idea. We are maybe about to find out.
That poster also said the seed is irrelevant. That's the wrong mentality to have too. 15 1-seeds have won the title. 5 2-seeds. Of course you can argue that 1 seeds are typically better than 2 seeds but us being good enough to earn a 1 seed also matters (that box is already checked, I know).
But from any perspective, it matters who we play. Whether or not the players and staff acknowledge that or feel that doesn't matter. The higher chance you have to win each individual game, the higher chance you have to win the national championship.
If a 3 seed had to beat Alabama, Illinois, Baylor, Gonzaga that is a significantly harder path than if they had to beat ANY 4 other teams.
KenPom adjusts for strength of schedule.
Gonzaga is, for lack of a better way of putting it, MORE better than the average 2020 D1 team than any other team has ever been better than the average D1 team in that given year.
The last two times Gonzaga was close to this good (1 seed in the tournament) they made the Elite 8 and the national title game. In those years, they played the 89th and 75th hardest schedules in the country (per KenPom). This year they are at 93. Discounting Gonzaga because of their schedule is pretty outdated at this point.
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sacraig
- The desert
My point is that the average isn't necessarily constant year to year and that teams that cruise through more games taking less punishment likely have the ability to be efficient for longer. I know KenPom factors in SOS but it can't account for its effect on individuals.
Head to head competition in the tournament will be the equalizer. Either they will prove KenPom right or not against the best teams in the country or show that they benefitted from an easier schedule.
Exactly my feelings. Truthfully I don’t want to play them. They are big and physical with a couple talented guards. Probably mostly just PTSD from 205
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