Bracketology / Weekend Games

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#3      

HensonHall71

H
HensonHall71
For the BTT- lose to Purdue and we are locked into the 8/9 game essentially, win and we’ll get the 4 or 5 seed
 
#4      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
Every Big Ten team has 1 game remaining in the regular season this weekend. 7 games- that's 128 possible combinations of outcomes.

44 out of 128 (34.4%) combinations give Illinois the double-bye (top 4 finish) in the Big Ten Tournament. Illinois must win at Purdue for a chance at the double-bye.

If Illinois beats Purdue, IL will be a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed in the BTT.

If Illinois loses to Purdue, IL will be a 6, 7, 8, or 9 seed in the BTT.

If Illinois does indeed pull out a tough victory at Purdue on Sunday, the IL double-bye is not yet guaranteed but there will be a path.

After the Purdue game on Sunday no matter the outcome, we'll have to wait until the conclusion of the 3:30pm Mich-Ind game to find out the seed, and even then there's a chance that the 6:30pm Rut-NW game will decide the bracket. Fun stuff.

This crazy tweet mapped out all 128 outcome scenarios for the Big Ten Tournament heading into this regular season finale weekend. Go Illini
 
#5      

Calvin

C
Calvin
If you believe the bracket matrix, the teams Illinois will need to finish stronger than to move up:

(6)Creighton
Iowa State
Kentucky
Northwestern
(7)Duke
Texas A&M
MSU
Maryland
(8)Iowa
Illinois
Arkansas
Mizzou

A win @Purdue would be huge. Definitely some opportunities in the BTT too.
 
#6      

john1952

john1952
john1952

How many losses is disqualifying?​

By rule, a team has to finish over .500 on the season for NCAA tournament consideration. But realistically, two clearer thresholds have functioned as eliminators over the years: Just three teams have ever gotten an at-large bid with 15 total losses entering Selection Sunday (none with more than 15), and no team in the past 20 years has gotten in finishing fewer than three games over .500.

The top-to-bottom strength of the Big 12 and the parity we’ve seen in the Big Ten this season mean several teams could be tiptoeing around those two lines over the next week and a half. The Big Ten’s most likely case is Michigan, which would need a road win at Illinois or Indiana to avoid having 15 losses assuming a conference tournament loss. The Wolverines’ disastrous nonconference loss to Central Michigan would likely be enough to keep Michigan out without a deep Big Ten tournament run. Wisconsin would have to lose to lowly Minnesota to get to 15 losses, but the Badgers seem bound for 14 defeats if they can’t upset Purdue on Thursday.

 
#7      

mysterio2525

mysterio2525
mysterio2525
Bro Explaining 04032023105307.jpg
 
#8      

BBlock24

B
BBlock24
HensonHall71 said:
For the BTT- lose to Purdue and we are locked into the 8/9 game essentially, win and we’ll get the 4 or 5 seed
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Not necessarily. If Illinois loses they can still be the 7 seed if MSU, Indiana, Maryland, Wisky, and Iowa all win. (They will all be favorites in their matchups) The Rutgers/NW matchup doesn’t matter for Illini seeding in this scenario per that BTT simulator.
 
#9      

BillyBob1

BillyBob1
Champaign
BillyBob1
BBlock24 said:
Not necessarily. If Illinois loses they can still be the 7 seed if MSU, Indiana, Maryland, Wisky, and Iowa all win. (They will all be favorites in their matchups) The Rutgers/NW matchup doesn’t matter for Illini seeding in this scenario per that BTT simulator.
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Looked doable until I saw Maryland has to win. They are on the road, so there goes that hope.
 
#11      

IllinialuminAZ

IllinialuminAZ
IllinialuminAZ
Just noticed that IU is at #29 in the NET, while MSU is #31.

Curious if it's better for our resume to swap a Q1 win for a Q2 loss if MSU is able to swap with IU this weekend.

Maybe it doesn't really matter, but thinking a Q1 win would be nice since we seem to be lacking them.
 
#12      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
Michigan State wins and will finish exactly 11-8 due to a Cancelled Game. So they'll finish ahead of anyone in that grouping that loses, and behind anyone that wins.
 
#16      

AyoDos11

AyoDos11
Southern Illinois
AyoDos11
Double Bye Probability after MSU win:

PUR- 64 of 64 possible outcomes 100%
IOWA- 36 of 64....56.3%
MD- 32 of 64....50.0%
MICH- 30 of 64....46.9%
IND- 28 of 64....43.8%
NW- 24 of 64....37.5%
IL- 22 of 64....34.4%
MSU- 20 of 64....31.3%
 
#24      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
My hunch is we want to be in a region with a Big XII team as the 1/2 (depending on our seed 7, 8, 9 or 10 based on how everything shakes out).

They are by far the dominant conference metrically, so they deservedly are cleaning up the high seeds. If by any chance the metrics are "wrong" and the Big XII is overrated (or just not as good as their out of conference collective performance suggests) then those teams are likely more vulnerable than the metrics suggest (because all the conference games become a giant circlejerk).

That is essentially what happened with the Big Ten in 2021.
 
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